49ers vs. Rams Odds & Picks: Can Niners Pull Off Upset?

49ers vs. Rams Odds & Picks: Can Niners Pull Off Upset? article feature image

Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Todd Gurley

  • The undefeated San Francisco 49ers head to Los Angeles as 3-point road underdogs.
  • Our experts analyze the betting odds, make their picks and cover every angle of this NFC West showdown.

49ers at Rams Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Rams -3
  • Over/Under: 50.5
  • Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Odds via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

In two meetings between these teams last year, the Rams scored 39 and 48 points in two decisive victories. But San Francisco is much improved compared to last season, starting the season 4-0.

Is the market starting to overrate the 49ers, or is there value in backing San Fran as a short road underdog?

Our analysts dig deep into the matchup, giving out our power ratings and an expert pick for the spread.

49ers-Rams Injury Report

Which team is healthier? 49ers

The 49ers will be down two offensive linemen in Joe Staley (leg) and Mike McGlinchey (knee), which won’t be ideal against the Rams’ ninth-ranked pass-rush, per Pro Football Focus. They’ll also continue to be without CB Ahkello Witherspoon (foot), who was one of their best corners before spraining his foot.

The Rams have some big question marks with Aqib Talib (ribs) and Todd Gurley (quad) not practicing. The Rams have given zero indication of whether Gurley will play. If he does sit, Malcolm Brown could be in for a nice workload.

Wide receiver Brandin Cooks (concussion) has logged in limited practice sessions after getting knocked out of last Thursday’s game, so he appears to be trending in the right direction. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Rams Defensive Coordinator Wade Phillips vs. Undermanned 49ers O-line

Like Justin mentioned, the 49ers have massive injuries along their offensive line. Losing both tackles (and your best blocking back) is a blow to any offense, especially on a short week against a defensive coordinator you know is going to cook up a scheme with tons of pressure to take advantage.

San Francisco will now walk into L.A. with Justin Skule (a sixth-round rookie) at left tackle and Daniel Brunskill (who played in the Alliance American Football League this year) at right tackle. Not ideal.

Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Wade Phillips.

Expect pressure from all over and for Aaron Donald to get some run lining up on the outside to blow up the 49ers backfield. Phillips has a lot of flexibility since he has corners who can cover the underwhelming 49ers wide receivers on the outside. Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Rams -3
  • Projected Total: 49

The ugly display by the Browns offense on Monday Night Football was also a display of how improved this 49ers defense is — they’re stout against the run and pass, which is a big reason I’m showing value on the under here.

The line opened right at 49, but has been bet up to 50.5 with 71% of tickets and 88% of money pouring in on the over as of writing (see live public betting data here), so there’s no reason for the line to stop now. Fifty-one is a pretty key number, so it’s worth seeing if it reaches that or 51.5, then take the under. That’s probably when sharps will start to show resistance and not let it get much higher. Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

The 49ers are undefeated this season and 3-1 against the spread (ATS), covering by a whopping 15.3 points per game.

Bettors are split on whether San Fran will keep it going against the Rams, but history points to a clear side. Since 2005, it has been profitable to bet against teams that have covered the spread by a large margin, as teams tend to regress to the mean over the course of the season.

Our Pro System takes advantage of this, and bettors following this strategy have gone 308-235-16 (57%) ATS. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,270 following this system.

The 49ers are on a hot streak while the Rams have lost two in a row. Despite the teams heading in opposite directions, history suggests Jared Goff & Co. are the smart bet. John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

Expert Picks

Stuckey: Rams -3

This is a textbook buy low/sell high spot offering line value in the weekly overreaction game we see play out in the NFL each week.

After starting 2-0, the Rams looked ugly in Cleveland on national TV and then dropped two in a row — one as a home favorite against Tampa Bay and then last Thursday night against Seattle in a game they should’ve won if Greg Zuerlein makes a kick he generally makes.

Meanwhile, everyone seems to have crowned the 49ers NFC champs after they obliterated the Browns on Monday night. Not much changed from my perspective in that game; it was a dream spot for San Fran, which was off a bye and catching a banged up Browns team coming across country for a second straight road game after beating their rival Ravens.

But what exactly have the 49ers done so far? Beat the Bucs to open the season on a day when Jameis Winston threw two picks? And then follow that up with wins over three sub-.500 teams in the AFC North? Color me not as impressed as everyone else.

Look, I think the 49ers are a very solid team and a legit contender in the NFC, but the love has gone too far — especially as they play on a short week against a Rams team that’s had extra time to prep for the matchup after playing last Thursday night.

San Francisco will also have to grapple with losing one of their most important offensive pieces to injury in Kyle Juszczyk. He’s a key cog in Kyle Shanahan’s zone run scheme, is an excellent blocker (especially when it comes to picking up blitzes) and makes an impact in the passing game.

The 49ers use 21 personnel (two backs and one tight end) more than any team in the NFL and it’s their most successful formation. If opposing defenses stay in base, they throw. And if they stay with an extra defensive back, they run it.

Losing Juszczyk, the only fullback on the roster as I’m writing this, will require Shanahan to rework a lot of the offense. But that’s again where the short week really hurts the 49ers.

I took -3 (-115) when it popped in the market and would take anything at -4 or better. At -3, it’s assuming these teams are dead even. And that’s just not the case in my opinion, especially when you account for the favorable spot for LA and the key SF injuries.

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