Super Bowl Squares Board: The Best Numbers for Your 2023 Pool
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- Sean Koerner has run the numbers and has you covered for your Super Bowl squares pool.
- Check out his projections for which squares you want ahead of Chiefs vs. Eagles below.
Organizing or playing in a Super Bowl squares pool? I simulated Chiefs vs. Eagles 10,000 times to highlight the squares you want.
Get my projected win probabilities for each quarter and the final score below, along with the optimal numbers for your pool.
Best Super Bowl Squares
The best Super Bowl squares are exactly what you’d expect: Combinations of 0s, 3s and 7s — aka numbers common in football between field goals (3) and touchdowns (7) and the two combined (10).
Before going through all four quarters, here are the best numbers for the entire game:
Best Super Bowl Squares By Quarter
First Quarter Squares
There’s no surprise that in the first quarter, 0-0 is the square with the highest probability of winning, followed by combinations of 0s, 3s and 7s.
Variance increases as a game progresses, so probabilities for the first quarter are more “straight forward” than for the final score.
Second Quarter Squares
The best numbers for the second quarter are still combinations of 0s and 7s, but their probabilities do decrease relative to the first quarter.
Third Quarter Squares
The third quarter isn’t all that different from the second, though 3s continue to decline since those are less likely after teams cross 13 points.
Final Score Squares
With a four-point spread, the value of Eagles 7 and Chiefs 3 sees the highest probability for the final score numbers.
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