Seahawks vs Panthers Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 14
Jane Gershovich/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Lockett.
- The Seahawks are 3.5-point favorites at home against the Panthers in Week 14.
- Carolina is coming off its bye week, while Seattle won a nail biter last week in Los Angeles.
- Cody Goggin breaks down both sides and makes a pick below.
Seahawks vs Panthers Odds
The Carolina Panthers travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks.
As we look for a Panthers vs Seahawks pick, Seattle is still alive in the NFC West race, especially after the injury to San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Carolina technically isn't out of the NFC South picture at 4-8, but the franchise is likely looking toward the future at this point.
Seattle’s offense is the best unit in this game, but Sam Darnold may be on his last chance to prove his worth. Darnold had a solid debut in Week 12 and will look to build on that against a poor Seahawks defense.
Seahawks vs Panthers Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Seahawks and Panthers match up statistically:
Seahawks vs Panthers DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 30 | 20 | |
| Pass DVOA | 30 | 18 | |
| Rush DVOA | 18 | 24 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 8 | 21 | |
| Pass DVOA | 5 | 20 | |
| Rush DVOA | 20 | 22 | |
Darnold made his season debut in Carolina’s last game, leading the Panthers to victory over the lowly Denver Broncos. Darnold was impressive, averaging 0.29 EPA per play.
Despite Denver’s defense being one of the best in the league, the Panthers put up a respectable 70.4% series conversion rate and scored 23 points, the second most the Broncos have allowed on the year.
Seattle’s defense may also help out Darnold and the Carolina offense as it has been one of the worst units for much of the season. Overall, the Seahawks rank 23rd in EPA per play allowed and 26th in EPA per dropback allowed.
Bet Carolina vs. Seattle at FanDuel
Last week, Seattle allowed 319 yards and 23 points to a putrid Los Angeles Rams offense. And prior to that, it allowed 40 points to the Las Vegas Raiders and 229 rushing yards to Josh Jacobs. This isn't a defense to be scared of.
Another thing driving down the total in this game is Carolina's defense. The Panthers have been an above average group as they rank 11th in EPA per play allowed and 13th in success rate. However, the schedule of offenses they have faced have not been daunting.
They have played against just three offenses that are ranked in the top 10 this season by EPA. In two of these games, the 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals demolished Carolina's defense to the tune of 37 and 42 points, respectively.
That brings us to the Seahawks offense. Ranked sixth in EPA and fifth in success rate, this will be the second-best offense that Carolina has faced this season. Even though Seattle has gained a reputation for being a run-heavy team over the years, the passing attack has been leading the way in 2022. The Seahawks are sixth in the league in EPA per dropback and first in dropback success rate.
One specific matchup to look at is Tyler Lockett against Carolina’s secondary. Lockett is the beneficiary of what Pro Football Focus grades as the largest mismatch of Week 14 according to their WR/CB matchup chart, rated at 99.9 out of 100. Lockett had 12 targets last week and he could see another hefty dose of balls thrown his way.
Weather shouldn’t be an issue as there is a low chance of precipitation and hardly any wind. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-40s, so the conditions aren’t going to chase me away from the over.
Betting Picks
I believe we may see more scoring than the market expects in this matchup. Geno Smith has been up there with the best quarterbacks this season while Sam Darnold is playing for his career.
Neither of these defenses are shutdown units and Lockett is set up to have a big day receiving. At 44.5, I believe this total is too low. I would take the over up to 46 points in what could end up being a high-scoring affair.
Pick: Over 44.5 | Bet to 46 |
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