Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl Picks: Expert Player Props on Jerick McKinnon, Quez Watkins

Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl Picks: Expert Player Props on Jerick McKinnon, Quez Watkins article feature image

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Jerick McKinnon Under 9.5 Longest Rush
-124 at Unibet — Bet to 9.5 (-170) or 8.5 (-119)

Save for an epic 26-yard, walk-off touchdown against the Texans in Week 15, McKinnon has done a whole lot of nothing as a runner this season. Since that score, McKinnon has carried the rock 24 times for 43 scoreless yards, with a long rush of seven. On the season, just five of his 88 carries (5.7%) have resulted in a gain of 10 or more yards.

McKinnon’s paltry 1.8 yards per carry over the past five games looks even worse when considering Isiah Pacheco posted a 5.2 YPC on 53 carries over that span.

After leading the Chiefs backfield with 34 carries for 150 yards (4.4 YPC) last postseason, McKinnon was given a season-high 11 carries in a bid to recapture that magic in the first playoff game this year against the Jaguars, but produced just 25 yards. That experiment lasted all of one game, with him returning to his season-long median of four carries in the AFC Championship game against the Bengals. Given his current rate of explosive rushes (or lack thereof), McKinnon would need upwards of eight carries – a mark he’s reached in only four of 19 games (21%) – before he would project for a 50% or greater probability of breaking a run of 10-plus yards.

McKinnon’s longest rush has been under 10 yards in 15 of 19 games (79%) and under eight yards in 14 of 19 (74%).

Quez Watkins Under 1.5 Receptions
-133 at Caesars — Bet to -170

After hammering Watkins’ yardage unders the past two games, I’m going with the under on his receptions this time around.

As I’ve mentioned in the past, the key here is Watkins’ lowered usage rate with Dallas Goedert is active. In the five games Goedert missed, Watkins was used much more as a traditional slot receiver, with a 7.8 aDOT and a 19.2% target rate per route, but with Goedert active, Watkins is used primarily as a field stretcher, averaging a 12.2 aDOT but a target rate of only 8.7% per route. As a result, his splits with vs. without Goedert are night and day:

Without Goedert: 4.8 targets, 3.6 receptions, 75.0% catch rate
With Goedert: 1.9 targets, 1.1 receptions, 57.7% catch rate

Another reason to like the under is that Watkins has seen his snaps cut this postseason, even early in games when the Eagles were still throwing. His route participation rates in the two playoff games were 27% and 52%, which represent his two lowest marks of the season. His 40% route participation rate this postseason is significantly down from his regular-season average of 64%.

Watkins’ median reception total in games Goedert has been active is 0.5, and he has caught one or fewer passes in 64.3% of those games.

Pick: Quez Watkins Under 1.5 Receptions

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