Colts vs. Chiefs Picks: How We’re Betting this Over/Under

Colts vs. Chiefs Picks: How We’re Betting this Over/Under article feature image

Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Travis Kelce

  • Our staff breaks down how they're betting Sunday Night Football featuring the Colts at Chiefs.
  • You'll find their three favorite picks below, including a take on the over/under.

Colts at Chiefs Betting Odds & Picks

  • Spread: Chiefs -10.5
  • Over/Under: 56
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: NBC

Odds as of Sunday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs host the Indianapolis Colts in the highest total game of Week 5.

Our experts break down how they’re betting the Sunday Night Football total. They also reveal first-half and live betting picks.

Sunday Night Football Picks

Matthew Freedman: Under 56

I grabbed the under early in the week at 57, but I’d bet this down to 55.

Since head coach Andy Reid joined the franchise in 2013, no home team has driven more games to the under than the Chiefs have with their 33-18-1 record (including playoffs), good for an A-graded 26.1% return on investment (per Bet Labs).

In the Reid era, the Chiefs are the No. 32 in the league in home/road offensive scoring differential with -3.0 points per game. On average, they score an extra field goal on the road that they don’t score at home.

Almost every team in the league scores more at home than on the road. That the Chiefs have run a three-point offensive deficit at home is almost unbelievable.

But there’s more: The Chiefs are No. 3 in home/road defensive differential with -5.7 points per game. On average, they allow almost two fewer field goals at home than on the road.

Add it all up, the Chiefs have the largest home/road total differential in the league with -8.7 points per game. When the Chiefs play at Arrowhead, the scoring usually drops.

The Chiefs are No. 9 in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA: That and the Arrowhead advantage I expect will be enough to keep the Colts from driving this game to the over.

Stuckey: Chiefs 1H -7

NFL double-digit favorites aren’t my cup of tea, but it’s Kansas City or nothing in a primetime game in front of what should be a raucous Arrowhead crowd.

This first-half line assumes the Chiefs would only be about a 4-point favorite over the Colts on a neutral field. And given the key injuries Indy is dealing with right now, I think that’s too low.

There’s certainly a lot of backdoor risk at a full-game spread of 10.5 against a subpar Chiefs defense, so I’ll be investing in their first-half spread of -7.

Scott T. Miller: Live Over 49.5 or Better

Here’s a fun fact: The Chiefs rank second overall in points, scoring nearly 34 per game. But they’ve showed a tendency to get off to slow starts on offense. K.C. is 16th overall with 4.2 first-quarter points per game. In fact, the Chiefs haven’t scored a single point in the first quarter since Week 1 versus the Jags.

So, even though this looks ripe for a shootout, I wouldn’t rush to go bet the over pregame with it hovering around 56. If the Chiefs get off to another sluggish start, you’ll likely get a number much better than that.

Personally, I’ll be looking to live bet over 49.5 or better. Historically, 50 has been a key number in over/under betting since the NFL’s extra point rule changed in 2015.

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