Colts vs. Titans Betting Odds & Picks: Tennessee Overvalued Coming Off Win?

Colts vs. Titans Betting Odds & Picks: Tennessee Overvalued Coming Off Win? article feature image

Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Logan Ryan, Kenny Vaccaro

Colts at Titans Betting Odds

  • Odds: Titans -3
  • Total: 43.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds above as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

The Titans blew out the Browns, 43-13, to open the season. But how much should we read into that win?

Our analysts break down the most important angles of this AFC South showdown, featuring Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a pick.

Colts-Titans Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Titans

The Titans are in pretty good health, which can’t be said for the Colts. They placed WR Devin Funchess (collarbone) on injured reserve earlier this week and DEs Jabaal Sheard and Kemoko Turay missed practice on Wednesday. Sheard was out Week 1 as well, so he’ll need to get in some practices to improve his outlook.

If Sheard and Turay are both ruled out, that would make their pass-rush less effective considering they ranked in the top three on the Colts last year in both quarterback pressures and hurries, per Pro Football Focus. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Titans -3.5
  • Projected Total: 43

Public bettors are still supporting Cleveland after the 43-13 beatdown Tennessee delivered, and I thought that if they were consistent, they’d at least give the Titans enough credit for their win to put pressure on this line up until -4. And that appears to be the case.

The Titans have received more than 60% of the action as of writing, which looks like it will be enough to move them off the key number 3 and to 3.5. That’s when sharp bettors will come in hard on the Colts (if they like them here). If it doesn’t get much resistance the other way, I think it will end up closing at -4.

I’m not going to touch this one, but I’m always fascinated by the public vs. sharp action once a line moves from -3 to -3.5.

As for the total, I’m a bit puzzled. I had it pegged at 43, so I wasn’t surprised to see most of the action come in on the under. But the line has somehow crept from 44.5 to 45 at some books. I think I’ll nibble on the under at 45 as 45.5-46.5 isn’t a range of key numbers, while 43-44 is (in a sense).

Both teams prefer their quarterbacks to be game managers, run the ball and allow their above-average defenses help them win the game. Sean Koerner

Biggest Mismatch

Colts HC Frank Reich vs. Titans HC Mike Vrabel

After Andrew Luck announced his retirement, I obviously had to adjust my numbers for the drop-off at the most important position on any NFL roster. Even after the adjustment, I had the Colts rated slightly better than the Titans.

This Colts offensive line is the real deal — it’s one of the best units in the league that will enable Indy to travel well. Marlon Mack had a huge performance against the Chargers last week in a game the Colts could have easily won. And that performance wasn’t a fluke. Over his past six games, Mack has 122 carries for 660 yards (5.4 yards per carry) and six touchdowns.

Indy was committed to the run in both wins over Tennessee last season and that won’t change this week.

Don’t overreact to the Titans win last week. They did some good things on offense with play action, but the Browns were an absolute mess. The penalty yards were even worse than they appear in the box score as they also took away a lot of big plays for the Cleveland offense. Plus Indy completely shut down Tennessee in both meetings last season and matches up fairly well overall.

But the biggest mismatch of all in this game in my book is coaching!

Frank Reich-Jacoby Brissett
Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Frank Reich, Jacoby Brissett

It’s not rocket science. I just trust Reich to out-scheme Vrabel here. Reich will have a few extra wrinkles that swing a drive or two. And in a matchup of two very evenly matched teams, that makes all of the difference.

I make this line 2.5, so I jumped on the field goal at plus-money and think the Colts are an intriguing moneyline option.

Mack should continue his success on the ground and the Colts’ unique zone-based defensive scheme should force Marcus Mariota into a few mistakes that help them pull out a road win in what should be a competitive divisional game. In six career games against the Colts, Mariota has eight touchdowns, six interceptions, three fumbles and has been sacked 16 times. That includes five sacks and five turnovers in the two meetings last year. Stuckey

PRO System Match

Underdogs have historically performed well in division games as increased familiarity among opponents keeps games competitive, and it’s been profitable to bet small dogs in these matchups to win outright.

Even though teams matching this Pro System have a losing record of 108-112-2, bettors have still been able to turn a profit due to plus-money bets. A $100 gambler would have returned a profit of $4,602 following this strategy since 2003.

The Colts +150 are a match for this system on the road in Tennessee. John Ewing

Expert Picks

Stuckey: Colts +3

Like I outlined above, the coaching mismatch will determine this one.

Lastly, I’m not a big trend player, but to illustrate why you shouldn’t overreact to the Titans’ blowout win over the Browns: Over the past decade, there have been only nine teams that covered by 28 or more points in Week 1. Those nine teams are 0-9 against the spread in Week 2.

That sample includes the 2015 Titans, who beat the Bucs 42-14 to open the season before losing to a pathetic Browns team the following week. The 2019 Titans fit that mold.

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