Cowboys vs. Jets Odds & Picks: NY Have A Chance with Sam Darnold?

Cowboys at Jets Odds & Picks

• Odds: Cowboys -7
• Over/Under: 44.5
• Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: CBS

Odds via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Sam Darnold makes his long-awaited return to field after dealing with mono, and it couldn't come at a better time with the Cowboys visiting MetLife. Darnold's return has not swayed bettors in the Jets' direction, though — the Cowboys are receiving 75% of betting tickets as of Thursday evening.

Will the Jets' offense finally get going with Darnold under center?

Our staff breaks down every angle of this matchup, featuring a comparison to Sean Koerner’s projected odds, Pro System picks and more.

Cowboys-Jets Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Cowboys

I’d give an even bigger edge to the Cowboys being healthier if Tyron Smith (ankle) and La’el Collins (knee) both end up playing. The Cowboys are optimistic they'll play, but neither have practiced this week so far.

Leighton Vander Esch also hasn’t practiced this week with an illness, but there’s no indication that he’ll be ruled out. Amari Cooper (ankle) has remained limited in practice but that seems to be the normal routine for him this year.

The Jets are a mess heading into Week 6. Most notably, C.J. Mosely (groin) isn’t expected to play, and neither is Chris Herndon, who is fresh off a suspension, but hurt his hamstring while running routes. — Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Dallas Pass Rush vs. Jets Offensive Line

The biggest positional contrast between these two teams exists on the offensive line. While the Cowboys could again bring one of the league’s best with the return of Smith, the Jets' offensive line ranks last (per Football Outsiders).

The Jets have allowed the most sacks and most quarterback hits of any team in the league. With Darnold making his first start since dealing with mono, the Jets need to find a way to limit the Dallas pressure.

The Cowboys' defensive line ranks 25th in adjusted sack rate, but has seen an increase in pass pressure since Robert Quinn returned from suspension. Dallas has totaled 10 sacks in the three games Quinn has played this season.

Look for the Jets to keep the Cowboys off balance with short passes to running back Le’Veon Bell, who is tied for first among all running backs with eight targets per game. Bell also ranks second with 6.8 receptions per game. This should be effective as Dallas is tied for second with 37 receptions allowed to opposing running backs. — Mike Randle

Sean Koerner's Projected Odds

• Projected Spread: -7
• Projected Total: 43.5

Darold is set to return after a bout with mono, which bumped my Jets rating up by about three points. It’s important to remember that the Jets also lost backup Trevor Siemian and were forced to turn to third-stringer Luke Falk. Getting Darnold back, as a result, is going to be a bigger boost to their offense than people realize.

He’s also likely not going to be 100% this week, but I’ll likely add another point to the Jets power rating once we can confirm that he’s fully recovered. Either way, the spread and total match up with mine, so this is a no bet for me. — Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

The Jets have struggled offensively without Darnold. In Week 5, they scored only six points. Despite Darnold being cleared to start for Sunday, there's lopsided betting action on the Cowboys.

More than 70% of spread tickets are backing Dallas as more than a touchdown favorite on the road as of writing (see live public betting data here). Oddsmakers understand that recency bias will affect the judgement of casual bettors. The public wants no part of the Jets against America’s Team and this likely has led bookmakers to inflate the lines against Dallas.

Contrarian gamblers have profited by going against the grain and betting low-scoring teams like the Jets as teams to tend to bounce back after bad outings. This strategy is even more effective if there is lopsided public action. Gamblers following this Pro System have gone 148-95-4 (61%) against the spread since 2003, returning a profit of $4,430 for a $100 bettor.

The Jets are a match for this system. — John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

Expert Picks

Stuckey: Jets +7

I’m not a Darnold truther by any stretch, but I think he could be a solid starting quarterback one day with further development. That said, he’s an enormous upgrade over Falk. He can actually throw the ball downfield and gives the Jets offense some semblance of hope.

As a result, I think the line should’ve moved from 9/9.5 to below 7, which mainly stems from not having to play Falk, who you may recall was originally the Jets third-stringer.

And that’s even before factoring in the potential absences of Cowboys offensive tackles. They are two of the best in the business and the best tackle tandem in the NFL for my money. The entire Cowboy offense, from the running game to play action to passing down success, all starts with their elite offensive line. The offense becomes very pedestrian without those two.

I think we'll see an inspired effort from the winless Jets at home, while the Cowboys may be looking ahead to the Eagles next Sunday night.

The Jets' defense — which has actually played well lately, all things considered — should also get some help at linebacker with the likely return of Brandon Copeland and Jordan Jenkins, who will help off the edge. They Jets are allowing just 3.4 yards per carry, which ranks in the top five league wide.

Darnold gives the offense a chance and I couldn’t pass up taking +7.5 with the home team here in a game I make at least +6.5 before factoring in the potential enormous overtime injuries for Dallas. I’d take anything at +7 or better with the Jets.