Eagles vs. Falcons Betting Odds & Angles: Trust Atlanta as Home Underdogs?

Eagles vs. Falcons Betting Odds & Angles: Trust Atlanta as Home Underdogs? article feature image
Credit:

James Lang-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz

Eagles at Falcons Betting Odds

  • Odds: Eagles -2
  • Total: 52.5
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: NBC

Odds above as of Saturday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

Matt Ryan and the Falcons struggled in their season opener, falling on the road to the Vikings, 28-12. But has the market overreacted to the loss by making them 2-point underdogs at home?

Our analysts break down the most important angles of this game, including Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a pick.

Eagles-Falcons Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Eagles

The Falcons get to return home, but unfortunately, they’ll be without starting G Chris Lindstrom (foot) for an extended period of time after he suffered a broken foot.

Outside of that, both teams look quite healthy for this game. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Saturday. See our Injury Report for the latest updates.

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: PK
  • Projected Total: 51

This is a Week 1 overreaction.

Unfortunately the value here won’t be worth it unless the market is able to get it up to -3. At that point, I think the Falcons are a play here. Yes, the Falcons offense, especially its offensive line, looked to be an issue, but it should improve this week.

Meanwhile, the public seems willing to overlook the fact Case Keenum and the Redskins dropped 380 passing yards on the Eagles’ vulnerable secondary. The Falcons’ passing attack is much better than the Redskins’, so the Eagles likely aren’t going to be so lucky if they need to drop 30 or more points again in order to win. Sean Koerner

Biggest Mismatch

Falcons’ Pass Catchers vs. Eagles’ Pass Defense

After watching Washington rookie wide receiver Terry McLaurin total 125 receiving yards and one touchdown against the Eagles last week, it’s hard to imagine them limiting Atlanta’s athletic receiving corps.

The Eagles allowed journeyman quarterback Case Keenum to throw for 380 yards and three touchdowns with two completions of 48 yards or longer against them. They’ll need to be much better against Matt Ryan, who posted an average of 306.4 passing yards, 2.25 touchdowns and 29.2 fantasy points in the Falcons’ eight home games last season.

All-Pro wide receiver Julio Jones is a weekly matchup problem, but the Eagles will also need to contend with second-year receiver Calvin Ridley, who averaged 0.75 receiving touchdowns in 2018 home games. The Falcons also feature veteran receiver Mohamed Sanu (66 receptions in 2018) and tight end Austin Hooper.

Matt Ryan-Calvin Ridley-Julio Jones
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones

The Eagles, who allowed the second-most receptions (110) to running backs last season, will also need to limit receptions for Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith.

Philadelphia was the fourth-worst team in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA in Week 1 and will need to improve quickly against one of the NFL’s most explosive passing offenses. Mike Randle

Expert Pick

Collin Wilson: Falcons +2

Much like handicapping baseball, the home vs. road splits for Ryan are reliable.

The Falcons quarterback has a higher QB rating, passing yards per game, completion percentage and yards per attempt at home over his decade-plus career. Do not hop off this bandwagon just yet, as the Falcons won the total yardage and first down battle against Minnesota last week.

They also received the highest grade in defensive pressure for Week 1. Three turnovers in Minneapolis cost the Falcons the first of their 13 total dome games.

As a gambler with investments on the Eagles, sirens should have been going off during the first half of last week’s game against the Redskins. Philadelphia came back from a 20-7 deficit, but allowed Washington to average 6.9 yards per play.

More importantly, the Eagles defense collected no turnovers and had just one sack against a Redskins offensive line that was 24th in adjusted sack rate last season.

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