Jets vs. Ravens Betting Picks, Predictions & Odds: How to Play This TNF Over/Under

Jets vs. Ravens Betting Picks, Predictions & Odds: How to Play This TNF Over/Under article feature image

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Lamar Jackson

  • The Baltimore Ravens host the New York Jets as massive favorites on Thursday Night Football.
  • Our experts preview the primetime matchup, featuring betting odds and picks.
  • Find out how they're playing the over/under and more analysis below.

Jets at Ravens Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Ravens -15.5
  • Over/Under: 45.5
  • Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX, NFL Network

Odds as of Wednesday morning and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

The majority of public bettors are backing the Baltimore Ravens as 15.5-point favorites against the New York Jets, but is that the best betting value for this Thursday Night Football matchup?

Our experts preview the game, featuring their picks and analysis of the biggest matchups.

Thursday Night Football Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Ravens

Lamar Jackson has been limited in practice with a quad injury and is listed as questionable, but has said he’ll be suiting up.

The other big injury to watch is Mark Andrews (knee), who didn’t practice on Monday but got in a limited session on Wednesday and is also listed as questionable. Andrews has been one of Jackson’s best touchdown threats this season.

Per usual, the Jets have more than 13 players on their injury report.

Le’Veon Bell (illness) has returned to full practice this week while Bilal Powell (ankle) has been ruled out. Safety Jamal Adams (ankle) and Demaryius Thomas (hamstring/knee) are listed as doubtful while cornerback Brian Poole (concussion) and Ryan Griffin (ankle) have also been ruled out. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Wednesday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Mark andrews-Lamar jackson
Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mark Andrews, Lamar Jackson

Biggest Mismatch

Lamar Jackson vs. Jets Defense

Jackson has been playing at such a high level that he’s an automatic mismatch regardless of the opposing defense. He ranks first in fantasy points per game for quarterbacks, first in passing touchdowns and has more than 1,000 rushing yards.

He’s the clear favorite for MVP.

The Jets defense has been stiff against the run, ranking second in rushing defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders), but they’ve yet to face a quarterback with the dual threat ability of Jackson. Of the three times they’ve faced quarterbacks who even approach Jackson’s rushing upside, they’ve allowed two (Josh Allen and Dak Prescott) to earn a rushing score. They also allowed 65 rushing yards Ryan Fitzpatrick last week.

The Jets pass defense, meanwhile, ranks 22nd in DVOA and has allowed the sixth-most passing touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. They’ll also still be likely without the services of Adams and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. Mike Randle

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Ravens -15
  • Projected Total: 44

With Jackson injuring his quad last week, this game was off the board until  it was confirmed he was expected to play on Wednesday morning. He was injured on the third play of the second half, so we got to see him play through the injury for nearly an entire half. He appeared to be fine, at least visually, but ran only four times for 16 yards after that play (excluding kneel downs).

There’s reason to believe we may not see Jackson at 100% capacity running the ball on the short week. And to make matters worse, the Jets are very strong against the run, as seen by their No. 2 rank in run defense DVOA, so we could see the Jets potentially limit the Ravens’ main strength: Running the ball.

There isn’t much value in taking a stab at the spread, but I believe the matchup will be an ideal environment for the under. The Jets will have a hard time moving the ball against a Ravens defense that’s been white-hot since landing Marcus Peters in Week 7. They’ve held opponents to fewer than 170 passing yards and a five-to-six touchdown-to-interception ratio in four of the seven games since.

If the Ravens get out to an early lead, which is likely, it’ll force each offense into a game flow that’ll play into the defense’s strengths. This also grades out as the slowest expected pace game of Week 15.

The market opened at 44.5 and has been bet up to 45.5, and I like the under at any price 45 or above. It would also make sense to bet the under during the game if/when the Ravens get out to a lead of 7-0 or more as that will be when the game really starts to favor the under.

The only scenario that could favor over would be if the Jets take an early lead of a touchdown or more, but that’s unlikely as 15-point underdogs, which is why I’m taking the under. Sean Koerner

Koerner is 147-104-2 (58.6%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

Expert Pick

Chris Raybon: Under 45.5

Somewhat lost amid all the Jackson MVP discussion is Baltimore’s defense, which is playing at just as high a level as its franchise QB. Over the past eight games, the Ravens have limited opponents to 14.1 points per game, including impressive road showings against the Seahawks (16 points allowed) and the Rams (6), as well as a near shutout of Deshaun Watson and the Texans (7).

The Jets are also banged up on offense: Top pass-catching tight end Griffin and No. 2 running back Powell have already been ruled out while offensive focal point Bell is recovering from the flu. Sam Darnold even got his throwing hand stepped on last game.

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sam Darnold, Le’Veon Bell

Long story short: Don’t expect the Jets’ 29th-ranked scoring offense (17.4 points per game) to hold up its end of the bargain as far as getting the total over.

On the other side of the ball, the Ravens have their own issues that may hinder them from hanging a huge number on the Jets. Jackson (quad) and his top target, Andrews (knee), both aren’t 100%, and left tackle Ronnie Stanley — who is ranked as the No. 4 overall tackle in the NFL in Pro Football Focus’ grades — faces an uphill battle to play after suffering a concussion last game.

The Jets also present a tougher matchup than most for the league’s run-heaviest offense, as Gregg Williams’ unit ranks first in yards per carry allowed (3.0) and second in rushing yards per game allowed (78.8).

Jets games have gone under in three straight and Ravens games have gone under in three of the last four. Those trends are set up well to continue on Thursday night.

Raybon is 180-132-10 (57.7%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

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