Joe Mixon For More Yards Than Cam Akers, Van Jefferson To Score 1st Rams TD, More Super Bowl Props To Bet

Joe Mixon For More Yards Than Cam Akers, Van Jefferson To Score 1st Rams TD, More Super Bowl Props To Bet article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Bengals RB Joe Mixon, Rams WR Van Jefferson

  • Joe Mixon to beat Cam Akers in a head-to-head bet. Van Jefferson to score the Rams' first touchdown.
  • Find out why those are among our senior NFL betting expert's top seven props for the 2022 Super Bowl below.

2022 Super Bowl Prop Bets

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Samaje Perine Under 15.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards at DraftKings

Perine took a screen pass 41 yards for the Bengals’ first touchdown in the AFC Championship Game en route to Super Bowl LVI, which is great. I’m happy for the guy. Me and my Bengals +7.5 ticket for that game thank him. Not only that, he also caught two of three other targets for two yards. One of them should have probably gone for another touchdown, but he ran his route to the wrong side of the field.

All this to say: Zac Taylor thoroughly exhausted the Perine part of the playbook against the Chiefs.

In Perine’s previous two playoff games combined, he had two touches for six yards — as many touches as third-string back Chris Evans. And going back over his last four games (excluding a meaningless Week 18 game in which he dressed but did not play), Perine had a grand total of six touches for 26 yards.

In his career, Perine is averaging 3.9 yards per carry, 7.1 yards per reception, and 4.5 yards per touch, meaning he will likely need three touches to clear this number. That’s only happened once in his last five games. I’m betting that the AFC Championship Game was the tendency breaker and Samaje Perine goes back to being … Samaje Perine.

Bet to: 14.5

Matthew Stafford Under 5.5 Rushing Yards (-120) at BetMGM

Both of these things can be true: 1) Matthew Stafford has 22, 6, and 8 yards in three playoff games, and 2) a prop of 5.5 is way too high.

While Stafford has enjoyed some productive rushing stat lines over the past three games, consider two more facts:

  • Stafford has been held to two or fewer rushing yards in 13-of-20 games, or 65%
  • Stafford’s median rushing yardage total this season is 0.5

It’s not like the Rams transitioned to a read-option offense with the 34-year-old Stafford; there’s nothing to suggest this streak is anything other than random variance.

There’s also nothing to suggest the Bengals are a great matchup for quarterbacks running the football. The Bengals held opposing quarterbacks to the 10th-lowest rushing yardage total during the regular season (252), and more than half of those yards came from two quarterbacks: Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields.

Bet to: 4.5

Joe Mixon to Have More Rushing Yards Than Cam Akers (-110) at DraftKings

With Darrell Henderson set to return, head coach Sean McVay hinted at plans to use a three-back rotation. It’s not surprising that McVay would stop short of committing to a full-on featured workload for Akers, who has carried 59 times for 154 yards since returning from an Achilles tear he suffered in July. That gives Akers three ways he could fall short of expectations:

  1. Henderson and Sony Michel could mix in.
  2. There’s no guarantee that the game script unfolds exactly as the four-point spread suggests, but the Rams playing from ahead is baked into the line.
  3. Akers could continue being inefficient, as his stat lines in three playoff games are 17 attempts for 55 yards, 24/48 and 13/48.

Joe Mixon doesn’t share the first concern, as he has carried 52 times this postseason while his backups have combined for three carries. And while Mixon is in danger of a trailing game script, in my Super Bowl preview I talk about how the Bengals will need to run the ball on early downs against a Rams defense that loves to play light boxes, doing so at a 56% clip. This tendency of the Rams also makes No. 3 less of a concern, as the Bengals are below average against normal and stacked boxes, but top 10 in both yards per carry (4.5) and success rate (45.5%) against light boxes, per SiS.

Bet to: -120

Winner of Coin Toss to Defer (-500) at BetMGM

The Bengals won the coin toss 11 times this season; they deferred all 11 times. The Rams won 10 coin tosses and they deferred all 10 times. All of the Rams’ opponents deferred, and the Jets were the only team not to defer against the Bengals. This is free money.

Bet to: -1900

First Play of the Game is Pass (+115) at DraftKings

The Rams have passed on 40% of their first plays, but the Bengals have done so a whopping 90% of the time. Average the two and you get 60%. Even if you bake in some regression because of Super Bowl nerves, it’s hard to argue this shouldn’t at least be 50/50.

This is a better way to get some positive expected value than betting the coin toss.

Bet to: +100

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Van Jefferson First Rams TD (+1000) at BetMGM

It’s been radio silence from Van Jefferson in the postseason, with the Year 2 wideout catching 5-of-9 targets for 79 scoreless yards. But that’s why we’re getting great value on a player who ran a route on at least 86% of his team’s drop backs in all three playoff games.

Not only that, but Jefferson tied Cooper Kupp for the team lead with four first touchdowns this season. In fact, two-thirds of Jefferson’s touchdowns this season have been the Rams’ first of the game.

Jefferson doesn't score many touchdowns, but when he does, they’re usually early.

Bet to: +700

No Score in the First 6 Minutes (-130) at DraftKings

Both the Rams and Bengals scored in the first six minutes 20% of the time this season. The Bengals allowed a score in the first six minutes 25% of the time, while the Rams allowed a score in the first six minutes 14% of the time. Average everything out and the odds of each team not scoring in the first six minutes are roughly 80%, meaning the odds of neither scoring should be no lower than 60% — and that’s before factoring in that offenses tend to get off to slow starts in the Super Bowl.

Bet to: -150

More:16 Player Props | Consensus Spread Bet | MVP Longshots

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