NFL Odds & Picks for 3 Late-Slate Sunday Games

Week 11 NFL Odds

Eagles vs.

Colts

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Anthony Dabbundo: It's important to not overreact to one game or one week in the NFL. The Colts had one of their best performances in Vegas, and the Eagles had a bizarre loss.

But the Eagles still have plenty of regression coming. They've been the healthiest team through 10 weeks and they've had by far the best turnover margin. You can credit them for that and correctly say they've earned their 8-1 record.

But that doesn't mean the Eagles will continue to produce unsustainable turnover margins going forward. Philadelphia is +13 in turnovers, which is five better than any other team. The Colts are -9 (second worst). Those extreme swing plays are making the presumed gap between these two seem bigger than it really is on a play-to-play basis.

The Eagles defense was on the field for 81 plays on Monday night and now has a short week of rest and travel disadvantage. If the line dips below a touchdown, I wouldn't bet the Colts. But at +7 or better, it's time to ride with Saturday and the Colts season redemption narrative.

Pick: Colts +7 | Bet to +7

Bet Indianapolis Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!

Rams vs.

Saints

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Phillip Kall:Picking a side in this matchup seems dangerous for either team. The Rams just lost their only reliable source of offense, so who knows what they will put together. Meanwhile the Saints have lost their pass rush, cornerbacks, and offensive line. 

When distrust begins to pile up like this though, the under is typically the way to go.  

Looking at the Rams offense against the Saints defense matchup. Even if the Saints use backups to rush the passer, it may not matter. Los Angeles allows the third-highest pressure rate in the NFL, per Pro Football Reference. Even when the Rams offense has moved the ball, they have struggled in the red zone, ranking 25th in touchdown percentage inside the 20-yard line. That was all Kupp. Good chemistry has not been there for Stafford and the Rams' other receivers. That will likely be emphasized this week when Stafford is under pressure without his safety valve.

On the other side, the Saints offense has shown signs of life previously, but it's hard to imagine that with several backups starting up front. While the Rams have underwhelmed from a pass rush standpoint, it is hard to imagine them not correcting here. Donald may demand the attention of two or three blockers every play. This should at least make things uncomfortable for the immobile Andy Dalton and give the Rams backend support they have not had all year.

Trusting either of these teams to do much is too rich for my taste, so I'll trust them to do what is most likely, and what they have done in recent weeks: struggle.

Pick: Under 39.5

Bet Rams vs. Saints Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!

Bears vs.

Falcons

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Blake Krass: I think this game will be played at an incredibly slow pace given these run-heavy offenses. Also, more tape is now available on the new-look Bears offense that has led Fields to so much success over the past couple of weeks. The Falcons defense has also had an extra three days to study that tape after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 10.

The under is the best path in this game for bettors. Neither team can be trusted to win this game, but both can be trusted to keep running the ball.

I am going with the under at 49.5 and would bet it down to 48.5. These teams will be the definition of snails and in what should be a close game, coaches should be comfortable in a field-position battle. The defenses of both teams should be able to slightly over-perform against two offenses that are so one-dimensional. Time to root against points.

Pick: Under 49.5 | Play to 48.5

Bet Bears vs. Falcons Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!

Commanders vs.

Texans

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Dylan Wilkerson:This week, I will be fading the Houston Texans’ rush defense yet again.

It is clear the Commanders have transitioned to being a run-first team under Heinicke and with Robinson seeing a majority of touches in the backfield, I am going to back him this week.

Pick: Brian Robinson Jr. Over 63.5 Rush Yards | Bet to 72.5

Jets vs.

Patriots

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The Great Foosini:If you've read me here, hopefully you've picked up on two things. One, I'm a Jets fan and write about them most weeks. I was wrong about them against the Bills, but largely speaking, I am bearish on them due to quarterback play.

The second is that I like to make my own numbers and use logic to bring home the betting angle.

First, I have this as Pats -4.2. From a logic standpoint, the Patriots were three-point 'dogs in Cleveland, where the Jets were 6.5-point 'dogs. The Pats were then three-point road favorites in MetLife against the Jets. I know the Jets beat the Bills and played their game of the season, but the underlying stats didn't change much to justify this number. It needs to be at least 3, just a matter of if it should be higher than that.

Given the Pats' performances against bad quarterbacks, especially at home, I find it hard to envision a Jets victory here. Belichick is 15-7 off a bye, beating teams by an average of nine points. The only hope is for the Jets to exploit the run defense, but with an extra week to prepare, the Pats will likely load the box and let Wilson try to beat them. That did not work out so well the first time, and I'm expecting it to happen again.

I will obviously be rooting as hard as I can for the Jets, but my betting persona knows better.

Pick: Patriots -3.5

Bet New England Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!

Lions vs.

Giants

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Sam Farley: Daniel Jones is without doubt the Lions most improved player. Coming into this season there were real question marks over whether Jones could be a franchise quarterback, but the leaps he's taken show he deserves at least another season.

One of Jones' best attributes is his athletic ability, and he's already accumulated 387 rushing yards on the season. His rushing yard line on Sunday is around 35.5 or 36.5 yards, a number he's only exceeded three times in nine weeks, but this is his week.

The Lions have given up 372 rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, the second highest amount in the league, and over 100 yards more than the Vikings who are in third place. This is a defense that consistently struggles to contain quarterbacks and Jones should be able to take advantage of that.

Subscribe to Action Labs to get the latest rushing totals across sportsbooks. BetRivers had the best number on Jones as of Saturday at 3 p.m. ET. I'd bet this up to 42.5 rushing yards.

Pick: Daniel Jones Over 35.5 Rushing Yards | Bet to 42.5 Rushing Yards

Panthers vs.

Ravens

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Landon Silinsky: It's incredibly hard to lay 13 points in an NFL game, no matter how inferior the opponent is. Baltimore is clearly the far superior team at every level over Carolina, but some wonky things can happen, so I'll refrain from going there even though I lean toward the Ravens here.

Instead, we will look at this total, which is sitting at 41.5. We know how Baltimore wants to move the ball, as the team ranks 27th in the NFL in pass play percentage on the season. With Carolina being attackable on the ground, I expect there to be a ton of rushing attempts in this game on both sides, which kills a ton of clock and ultimately limits the number of plays that are run.

Carolina will look to lean on Foreman early and often in this spot, but once they go down a score or two, it will simply be too hard for them to sustain drives against this Ravens defense.

It would not shock me to see a 27-3 type of game here, and for that reason, I like the under in this spot. Baltimore should have its way with this Panthers team and control time of possession.

Pick: Under 41.5 | Bet to 41

Bet the Under Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!

Browns vs.

Bills

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Ricky Henne: When the Bills win, they win big. Their 11.0-point margin of victory is the highest in the NFL this season. That’s hardly a surprise as a ridiculous 23 of their 30 wins dating back to 2020 have been by double digits. Approximately 70% of the money may be on Cleveland to cover, but the sharps are backing Buffalo. I agree as a Bills’ win would likely be by double-digits.

Still, I’m only putting a taste on it as Buffalo’s faced a multitude of obstacles this week. An illness ravaged the clubhouse forcing them to alter practice on Wednesday. The winter storm also forced them to cancel practice Friday, limiting them to virtual meetings instead. They also had to scramble getting travel arrangements set for the last-minute switch to Detroit. It’s hard to ascertain how all that might impact their performance come kickoff.

Add it all up and my main focus is on Chubb eclipsing rushing 74.5 yards, which he’s done in seven of nine games this year. As noted earlier, he’s facing a struggling Bills run defense surrendering an average of 167.3 yards over their last three games. Running backs are averaging 5.5 yards after contact over that span, and Chubb’s one of the best in the league at breaking tackles.

Throw in that the Browns simply aren’t equipped to pass their way back into the game., and I feel good about Cleveland sticking with the run game no matter what. They abandoned it a week ago when Miami pulled away, and that should be a valuable lesson learned based on how that played out.

For all those reasons I’m putting multiple units on the over hitting for Chubb’s rushing yards. As of Saturday night, PointsBet had Chubb's total at 70.5 rushing yards

Pick: Nick Chubb Over 74.5 Rush Yards

Raiders vs.

Broncos

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Cody Goggin:I believe Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards total is set way too low this week. Things line up perfectly for Sutton to have double-digit targets coming his way in this game.

Against a putrid Raiders' secondary, Sutton should easily exceed 60.5 yards on Sunday.

Pick: Courtland Sutton Over 60.5 Receiving Yards | Bet to 66.5

Bengals vs.

Steelers

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

John LanFranca:Simply put, the Steelers almost always show up for Mike Tomlin in this spot. As the astute Evan Abrams pointed out, Tomlin’s 16-3-3 ATS mark as a home dog is the best of any head coach over the past 20 years. In his seven career games as a home underdog versus an AFC North opponent, Tomlin has yet to suffer a loss ATS.

With that said, he has never had an offense that lacks explosiveness quite to this level. Only four teams in the league have fewer 20-yard passing plays, and only one team has fewer 40-plus-yard completions.

The longest offensive touchdown by the Steelers this season is eight yards. Half of their offensive touchdowns have been of the one-yard variety. No matter how convincing the trends of past successes may be, I cannot back a team that lacks the ability to run the football and create explosive plays.

If Taylor does call a run-heavy script, as I suspect he will, the Steelers defense will be up to task. They are the sixth best rush defense at yards per carry allowed (4.17), as they stuff 20% of all rushing attempts at or behind the line of scrimmage. Neither team is inside the top 15 in situation-neutral pace of play, both averaging over 31 seconds per play when the game is within one score, which I expect for the majority of this contest.

The Steelers can keep this game fairly close, but they have yet to score three offensive touchdowns in any game. Divisional unders are 31-16 (65.9%) in 2022 and this is the perfect spot to back this trend once more.

Pick: Under 41 | Bet to 40

Bet the Under Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!

Cowboys vs.

Vikings

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Anthony Dabbundo: There are 26 quarterbacks with at least 100 snaps since Prescott returned. The Cowboys quarterback ranks seventh in efficiency, sixth in completion percentage over expected and second in success rate.

The Vikings secondary is going to have major issues stopping Dallas. And as well as Cousins has played, he's really been around league average in CPOE + EPA composite in that same time frame.

Prescott was clearly rusty when he returned against the Lions, but he's posted back-to-back quality performances.

If you compare DVOA ratings, the Cowboys rank fourth — despite playing Cooper Rush for a month — and the Vikings sit in 17th despite solid health.

Though the market clearly doesn't have that much respect for the Vikings' hot start, this is still a prime sell-high spot. Dallas is the better team and I’d bet them on the moneyline at -130 or better.

Pick: Cowboys ML (-126) | Bet to -130

Bet on Dallas Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!