Week 5 NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet Titans To Cover vs. Jaguars & Eagles-Panthers Under Sooner Than Later
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Derrick Henry.
With the new 17-game schedule, almost a quarter of the regular season is already complete as teams make preparations for their Week 5 opponents.
Oddsmakers have already released early lines for the matchups, creating the perfect time for betters to find even greater value before the weekend rolls around.
Week 5 NFL Odds & Picks
Titans at Jaguars
Editor’s note: This line was bet up to -4 or -4.5 by Monday morning, but our analyst would bet it to Titans -4 (find the best real-time line here).
Brandon Anderson: The Jaguars finally covered a spread in Week 4, but that won’t stop me from fading them again here. And speaking of faded, did everyone see that picture of Urban Meyer hanging out at a bar Saturday night? This is why we don’t put Jacksonville in national TV games.
Jacksonville hung in there most of the way against Cincinnati, but this is still a bad team and Urban Meyer has been a disaster. Every week it’s something new, and it’s tough to imagine what these professionals think in the locker room at this point. Trevor Lawrence continues to give the ball to the other team at will. The Jags are bad.
That’s why the Titans were seven-point favorites in this one Sunday morning, but that line was cut in half when Tennessee laid an egg and lost in overtime to the winless Jets. But does losing by a missed field goal really mean the Titans are suddenly barely a field goal favorite against another winless team? I don’t buy it.
The Titans were far better than the Jets on Sunday. They ran a whopping 93 plays to just 60 for New York, and they picked up 30 first downs. And they did all that without either of their stud receivers, Julio Jones or A.J. Brown, both of whom could be back for the Jags game.
So why did the Titans lose? Mistakes and inefficiency. Tennessee was just 5-of-19 on third down and 2-of-5 converting in the red zone. The Titans were sacked seven times for 45 yards and lost another 98 yards on penalties. And even despite all that, and without their stud WRs, the Titans still forced overtime and would’ve walked away with a tie if they hadn’t missed the final kick.
The Titans have won seven of their last eight against the Jaguars, and four of those wins were by at least three touchdowns. Derrick Henry eats this team for lunch and goes back for seconds. There’s no way the Titans are losing to a second straight winless team, and they should be way more than a field goal favorite. Grab this line early before oddsmakers come to their senses.
Panthers at Eagles
Editor’s note: This line was bet down to 44.5 or 45 by Monday, but our analyst would still bet it to down to 45 (find the best real-time line here).
Raheem Palmer: Before their Week 4 game against the Dallas Cowboys, the Carolina Panthers were first in both EPA/play and Success Rate. Of course things change when you play Dak Prescott and a Cowboys offense that is scoring 31.5 points per game, is first in Offensive Success Rate (56.0%) and fourth in EPA/play.
Now the Carolina Panthers face a Philadelphia Eagles offense that is just 16th in EPA/play. While we did see the Eagles offense wake up against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that ranks among the worst in the league, I’m not expecting this team to reproduce that offensive output this week.
This is an Eagles offensive line which is still dealing with injuries to Brandon Brooks, Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata and will have to deal with a Panthers defensive line that is first in pass rush win rate (58%).
The Panthers should also struggle to produce last week’s offensive output as well, and that should be enough to keep this game from being the track meets that we saw both of these teams play in Week 4. My model makes this total 43.5 while the market is sitting at 46.5, so that’s enough of a discrepancy for me to play the under.
Packers at Bengals
Editor’s note: This line was bet up to 49.5 by Monday, but our analyst would still bet it the over until that point (find the best real-time line here).
Mike Randle: The Packers have allowed an average of 33 points in their two road games this season. They now face a Cincinnati team that has scored 24 or more points in three of their first four games. Green Bay ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA and may be without elite cornerback Jaire Alexander who was carted off the field on Sunday with a shoulder injury.
The Bengals have extra days to prepare for this battle, having earned a 24-21 Thursday Night Football home win over Jacksonville. Cincinnati brings the second-best run defense per DVOA, increasing the likelihood of the Packers attacking through the air.
I expect Cincinnati to be at full strength with the extra rest, meaning running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Tee Higgins should both be ready to go. Joe Burrow had a season-high 32 pass attempts against Jacksonville, looking fully recovered from last year’s torn ACL.
This number will certainly climb throughout the week, and I grabbed in at 48.5 on FanDuel. With Alexander limited or out, the Green Bay defense will struggle to stop the trio of Bengals receivers in Ja’Marr Chase, Higgins and Tyler Boyd.
I would bet this up to 49.5 — and I expect it to go over 50 points shortly., Enjoy a high-scoring battle between two talented and explosive offenses.