I'm targeting three spreads, one total and a player prop on Sunday of NFL Week 2, with picks for the following games: Giants vs Cowboys, Patriots vs Dolphins, Bills vs Jets, Jaguars vs Bengals and Broncos vs Colts.
Let's get right into my expert NFL picks and analysis for the second NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
NFL Predictions, Week 2
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Giants vs Cowboys Prediction
Russell Wilson’s problem in Week 1 was completions: his 17-of-37 (45.9%) effort was the second-worst completion rate behind Cam Ward (42.9%). Adjusted for drops and throwaways, Wilson’s 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate was fourth-worst.
But this is a Cowboys defense that just allowed Jalen Hurts to complete 19-of-23 (82.6%), the highest rate in Week 1. Those four incompletions: three throwaways and a drop, making Hurts’ Adjusted Completion Rate a perfect 100%.
Making matters worse for the Cowboys, top corner DaRon Bland (foot) has been ruled out. Bland allowed just two catches for 11 yards on 31 coverage snaps in Week 1. In the one game Malik Nabers played against the Cowboys with Bland out last season, he went off for 10 catches, 127 yards, and a touchdown.
The Giants defense allowed only three scoring drives against Washington last week, but gave up far too much yardage (432 total, 220 on the ground).
However, not having to deal with a dual-threat quarterback like Jayden Daniels changes the whole game plan, allowing the Giants to commit more defenders to coverage/pressure and be more aggressive with their pass rush and run fits.
They will also be more prepared at linebacker after the loss of Micah McFadden mid-game in Week 1. Abdul Carter played only 54% of the snaps in Week 1, but is a sneaky bet to take more snaps at linebacker after playing five at the position last week.
The Eagles’ Jalen Carter-less defensive front failed to stop the run or sack Dak Prescott last week, so it wouldn’t be shocking if the Giants provide a stiffer test freed of the burden of game-planning against a dual-threat quarterback this week, especially if they can get Carter on the field more alongside Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence, and Kayvon Thibodeaux.
The Giants are capable of playing much better than last week, which would enhance the impact of their new additions in the secondary, CB Paulson Adebo and S Javon Holland, who combined to allow just 3-of-9 passing for 37 yards on 81 combined coverage snaps in Week 1, per PFF. Third-year corner Deonte Banks’ play was also encouraging in a reduced role: he was not targeted on 10 snaps in coverage.
While Prescott is surely the better quarterback than Wilson at this stage, this game is more of a toss-up than meets the eye because Prescott is just as liable to live-and-die by the same contested throws that Wilson does. Prescott’s 10 contested throws in Week 1 were actually three more than Wilson’s.
And unlike Prescott, Wilson is a more willing scrambler, taking off six times and gaining 40 yards on designed pass plays in Week 1, while Prescott scrambled only once for three yards.
Per our Action Labs data, Week 2 road teams off a double-digit loss are 41-24-1 (63.1%) ATS for a 21.8% ROI since 2005.
Prediction: Giants +5.5; Bet to +4
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Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction
Both teams lost in Week 1 and rate similarly overall, but the Patriots are a better bet to bounce back than the Dolphins, who are already at players-only meeting status.
The Patriots should be expected to improve week to week under Mike Vrabel, who is 29-22 ATS as a 'dog in his career.
While the Patriots are missing a key player in Christian Gonzalez, the Dolphins are still in worse shape on the injury front. They lost two key linemen in Week 1 — perhaps their best two — in guard James Daniels (IR, pectoral) and tackle Austin Jackson (IR, toe), which is a spot they can ill afford after Terron Armstead’s retirement.
That gives the Dolphins six total offensive linemen on reserve lists: Liam Eichenberg (PUP) and Germain Ifedi/Yodney Cajuste/Obinna Eze (IR).
In Week 1, Tua Tagovailoa failed to complete a pass on six pressured dropbacks while taking three sacks. He also averaged only 3.3 YPA against the blitz, and 5.7 with two interceptions from a clean pocket.
Defensively, Miami lost Storm Duck (ankle, out), and with Ethan Bonner (hamstring) doubtful, they now have six total injured corners along with Cam Smith (NFI) and Kader Kohou/Artie Burns/Jason Maitre (IR). And that doesn’t even count the traded Jalen Ramsey.
Unlike Tagovailoa, Drake Maye showed a pulse in Week 1, passing for 287 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT, but he was far too inconsistent, with four straight second-half drives that ended in punts. That may not be an issue against the Dolphins defense that allowed Daniel Jones and the Colts to score on every single possession in Week 1.
Over Tagovailoa’s last 15 starts, the Dolphins are just 5-10 (33.3%) ATS with a -5.1 average ATS differential.
Week 2 'dogs off a loss versus a favorite that was a 'dog in Week 1 are 54-31-1 (63.5%) ATS with a 23.8% ROI since 2005.
Prediction: Patriots +2.5; Bet to +0.5
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Bills vs Jets Prediction
Through one week, Tanner Engstrand is winning the “who’s more important to their offense” battle over former bosses Ben Johnson and Dan Campbell.
Johnson’s Bears followed an opening-drive touchdown with three points on their next 10 offensive drives, and Campbell’s Lions, under new coordinator John Morton, managed just six points over the first 59 minutes of Week 1.
The All-22 reveals Engstrand’s offense as well-schemed in both the run and pass game, and the stats back it up.
Starting with the run game, Engstrand employed a steady diet of heavy personnel to spring runners free, which led to Jets' backs averaging 2.71 yards per carry at the second level and beyond in Week 1 (eighth), after averaging 1.86 in 2024 (19th).
The Jets’ 182 rushing yards were their highest total since Week 18 of 2023 (185). It was also the second-highest total the Steelers have allowed over their past 32 games.
Breece Hall’s 107 yards and 5.6 yards per carry were marks he topped only once last season, and only twice over his prior 28 games.
In the pass game, Engstrand employed a steady diet of crossers and horizontally moving targets for Fields rather than static routes, which allows him to stress the defense on the move with his dual-threat ability, resulting in Fields posting the third-best Adjusted Yards per Attempt (10.82), fourth-best Yards per Attempt (9.9), and fifth-best passer rating (119.1) in 45 career starts.
Fields also took fewer than two sacks for just the fourth time in 45 starts, and it was his fourth career game with multiple rushing TDs.
The Bills' defense just got gashed for 432 yards and 8.6 yards per play by the Ravens. Their one saving grace: Ed Oliver, whose 02.1 PFF grade ranked No. 1 of 87 qualified tackles in Week 1. Oliver (ankle) will not play against the Jets this week.
The Bills' offense averaged 3.67 points per drive (third) and 41.4 yards per drive (fourth) in Week 1, but the Jets were right there at 3.40 points (fourth) and 39.4 yards (fifth).
Defensively, the Jets were better, allowing 0.64 fewer points and 15.2 fewer yards per drive than Buffalo, but were done in by a Xavier Gipson fumble that led to a 3-play, 22-yard TD drive and a 60-yard Chris Boswell field goal.
Gipson has been cut, and the Bills are employing Matt Prater at kicker, whose range tops out in the mid-50s at age 41.
According to our Action Labs data, division home 'dogs in Weeks 1-3 are 67-40-3 (62.6%) ATS since 2005 for a 21.1% ROI.
Prediction: Jets +6.5; Bet to +6
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Jaguars vs Bengals Prediction
Freed from having to deal with Myles Garrett, the Bengals offense should have more success against a Jaguars' defense that finished 31st in DVOA (per FTN) against the pass last season, and got a Week 1 reprieve up against a short-handed, Bryce Young-led Panthers offense.
And after gaining just 46 yards on 23 carries in Week 1, the Bengals may be more inclined to put the game in Joe Burrow’s hands from the outset and get Ja’Marr Chase (2-26-0) and Tee Higgins (3-33-0) right in the box score.
The Jaguars scored 26 points in Liam Coen’s debut, but they weren’t forced to push it offensively with the listless Panthers scoring only three points in the first 55 minutes of the game, allowing Coen to dial up 30 designed runs and settle for four Cam Little field goals.
Bengals' defensive coordinator Al Golden’s unit showed well, but let’s take it easy on anointing him and Cincinnati’s 27th-ranked unit in DVOA from a year ago.
Cincy’s defense still allowed a Joe Flacco-led offense to convert in 9-of-16 third downs and 2-of-3 fourth downs last week, while leaving meat on the bone in the form of dropped passes and four points worth of missed kicks by Andre Szmyt.
Either offense could push the other in this spot, and this total would likely be 50+ if either team’s game had gone over in Week 1, creating a buy-low opportunity.
According to our Action Labs data, when a Week 2 matchup features two teams that went under in Week 2 and a total of 40-plus, the over is 50-25 (66.7%) since 2205, covering by 3.18 points per game and producing a 30% ROI.
Prediction: Over 48.5; bet to 50
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Broncos vs Colts Player Prop
Sean Payton himself admitted he has to be a lot better as a play-caller in Week 1, which is code for “run the ball more” after he called passes on 14 of Denver’s first 17 plays.
It’s also likely code for more runs for Harvey, who notched 70 yards in his debut on only six carries.
Payton seemed to become too enamored with J.K Dobbins after his 19-yard fourth-quarter TD run despite Harvey having just ripped off a 50-yarder a few plays earlier, calling only Dobbins and Bo Nix’s number in on the team’s final eight runs, which gained only 22 yards (Dobbins 6-18, Nix 2-4).
Payton also unnecessarily wasted a handful of early-down snaps on third-string back Tyler Badie, with Nix comically targeting for three straight incompletions. I wouldn’t be surprised if those turn from Badie targets to Harvey runs in Week 2.
Because Harvery is a rookie, we should expect his snap count to gradually climb at the expense of Dobbins (and definitely Badie), and with the Broncos rush rate also likely to increase, I’m projecting Harvey to 8-10 carry range in Week 2.
It’s hard to take away much from the Colts defense against the Dolphins banged up offensive line and disastrous offense in Week 1, but it’s worth noting they allowed the similarly explosive De’Von Achane to gain 55 yards on just seven carries, including runs of 26 and 15 yards.
Prediction: RJ Harvey Over 30.5 Rushing Yards; Bet to 32.5
NFL Predictions, Week 2
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