NFL Week 10 features a 14-game slate, which has the following teams enjoying a bye week: Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, and Kansas City Chiefs.
For my Week 10 picks, we have some team total overs, a second-half spread prediction, a moneyline pick, and several rushing and receiving yards props, plus anytime touchdown props for players like Puka Nacua, James Cook, Cade Otton, Payne Durham and Kenneth Walker, among others.
Let's get to my NFL Week 10 picks and predictions!
NFL Week 10 Predictions
Ravens vs Vikings Team Total Picks
The Ravens feel like the right side here, but paying above the key number of three feels hefty.
The Vikings offense looks like the weakest unit of the four. It's too soon to trust J.J. McCarthy yet, and the Ravens defense is also a question mark, although it seems to be getting healthy and improving with Kyle Hamilton in a new role.
The question is: which is the best unit—the Ravens offense or the Vikings defense?
Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores had some tricks up his sleeve the last time his defense faced Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, blitzing him into oblivion and really blowing up Jackson's season, but Lamar has grown since then and will be ready now, especially with Baltimore on extra rest.
Minnesota's defense was outstanding last week, but has been subpar against the run and inconsistent in bringing pressure. The Vikings have also been hurt by scrambling QBs this season, like Caleb Williams and Justin Herbert, and it's always tough for an NFC opponent to stop Lamar Jackson when it hasn't seen him much before.
If you want a side, I prefer Ravens, but the number isn't there. You can duck under the key number with Ravens 1H, since Jackson is 63% ATS 1H for his career and the Vikings are 2-6 ATS 1H, though one of those two Minnesota wins just came last week.
Instead, I prefer to avoid the unknowns when Minnesota's offense attacks Baltimore's defense and just attack the Ravens offense.
Baltimore averages 33.8 PPG with Jackson this season, and the Ravens have scored at least 28 points in all five games with him on the field. In fact, they've scored 28+ in nine straight with Jackson and in all 15 Baltimore wins since the start of last season.
That makes a Ravens team total over 26.5 something of a proxy (-115, BetRivers) for a much more juiced Ravens moneyline.
The Vikings have faced two backup QBs this season, but have allowed 26.5 PPG against starting QBs this year. That's right at that number, but the Ravens are no average offense with Jackson healthy.
In 15 wins since the start of last season, the Ravens average 34.3 PPG and have scored 34+ in over half of them. Put a bit of your bet on the Ravens over 33.5 points, too, at +270 (DraftKings).
Pick: Ravens Over 26.5 Team Total & Over 33.5 (+270)
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Bills vs Dolphins Spread Prediction; James Cook Player Props
I probably don't need too much convincing to sell you on the Bills being better than the Dolphins.
This is the No. 2 DVOA offense against the 29th-ranked defense, and the Bills have owned this division rivalry, winning 14 of the last 15 with an average margin of victory of 15.0 PPG. QB Tua Tagovailoa is 1-9 against Buffalo with as many interceptions as touchdowns.
Despite those lopsided numbers, Bills QB Josh Allen is just 7-7-1 ATS against Miami in the regular season. That's why we have to bet against the number, not just moneylines!
It's also why we're betting the Bills second half at a much more reasonable -3.5 (-110, bet365).
You always want Bills 2H, especially in games with bigger spreads — and especially in this matchup. The Dolphins are 2-7 ATS in the second half this season, hanging for a while but not til the end. The Bills are 6-2 ATS in the second half, and that's been a consistent spot to back Allen.
Allen is 67% ATS for his career against the second-half spread; $100 bettors blindly backing Allen every second half of his career would be up around $3200, almost four times as profitable as the next best active QB.
Any idea which team Allen has been best against in the second half?
You guessed it — Allen is 12-3 ATS (80%) against Miami, nearly as profitable in the second half against just the Dolphins as every other second-half QB is in their entire career.
The Bills cover by 6.8 PPG in those Dolphins games, so place a bit of your bet on the Bills to win the second half by 10 at +200 (bet365).
And for all that Allen talk, if the Bills do have a big second half, it'll almost definitely mean a heavy dose of James Cook.
Miami's run defense has been, pardon the pun, absolutely cooked in losses this season. The Dolphins allow an average of 19.0 rushing attempts to opposing RB1s in losses for 109 yards. That includes 119 yards to Derrick Henry, 124 to Kimani Vidal, and 206 to Rico Dowdle, and six of seven RB1s have at least 18 carries in Miami losses.
Cook himself ran 19 times for 108 yards and a score in the first meeting. He's had at least 19 carries in five straight Bills wins, and he's gone over 100 rushing yards in each of those five as well, averaging 137 YPG.
Play Cook to go over 17.5 rushing attempts (-116, DraftKings), and that volume makes 100+ yards a good play at +155, along with 120 at +320 (both bet365). Keep an eye on Cook's injury status as Sunday approaches.
Pick: Bills 2nd Half -3.5 (-110) + James Cook Overs
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Giants vs Bears Player Props
I was all set to back the Bears when I saw this line at Chicago -3 on Sunday morning, but it reopened above the key number and has steadily risen all week.
Chicago has a pair of two-point wins and that last-second Bengals win, and the Giants have two losses by three or less, so that makes it tough to pay such a steep price to back the Bears. The Giants have allowed 22 PPG in their last three second halves and are 2-7 ATS in the 2H, and the Bears -1.5 2H gets under the key number.
However, the reason I was looking to back Chicago in the first place was one key matchup, so let's just go straight to the source and play a bunch of rushing overs.
Last week, I really wanted D'Andre Swift overs. I even had the whole thing written up and gave out Swift overs on The Action Network podcast, but we had to kill the pick when Swift was a late injury scratch. In his place, rookie replacement Kyle Monangai ran rampant with 176 yards on 26 carries.
Somehow, this matchup might be even tastier. The Giants rank dead last in rushing defense both by DVOA and EPA per play. This also looks like a blustery Chicago game, with heavy winds and a chance of freezing rain or snow — more reason to look at the ground game.
Since the bye week, Chicago's rushing attack has been absolutely unstoppable.
The Bears are up from 3.8 yards per carry in four games before the bye to 5.9 YPC after, leading the league at 187 yards per game. Chicago ranks fourth in rushing Success Rate since the bye and second in EPA per run.
It's clear Ben Johnson found some answers in the week away, and this offensive line is playing well. This is also a great matchup under the hood. Chicago prefers to play under center and run outside, each among the Giants' worst defensive metrics.
New York allows the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs. The Giants have already allowed seven backs to rush for at least 81 yards.
If you look at just "Bears RB1" in wins since the bye, you see rushing lines of 14/108, 19/124, and 26/176.
The question is which Bears runner is RB1. Is it Swift now that he's back on the field, or has rookie Monangai stolen the job? Even worse, could it be a split? Which one should we play?
How about both?
I still think Swift gets more of the carries for now. He's more of a workhorse type, the Knuckles to Monangai's Sonic in this pairing. Take Swift over 50.5 rushing yards (-115, Fanatics).
He's gone over that in four of seven games, and he's averaging 16.5 carries for 116 yards in Bears wins since the bye week change. That means we're placing a real chunk of the bet on 100+ yards at +900 too, and it makes sense to tack on 100+ Swift yards in a Bears cover at +1200 (both at bet365).
With Monangai, I'm less looking to play his standard lines and more looking for alts. Maybe he did take the lead job, in which case we want high outcomes, or maybe he gets clean-up duty or busts a long one against a tired, bad run defense.
Play Monangai to hit 50+ rushing yards at +180 (bet365). That can hit even with Swift doing well, and it also offers some insurance in case we're wrong and Swift doesn't get the carries, meaning Monangai probably does. Play 100+ yards at +1500 too, in case the volume is there.
It's hard to know which back to trust, but what's interesting is that books don't seem to know either. Some are pricing Swift higher; others are boosting Monangai's lines. That means shopping around buys us value.
There's also a good opportunity here to build some fun combination parlays.
If you bet both Swift and Monangai yards together, books will likely price in negative correlation, assuming one runner hitting means the other doesn't. I'm not sure that's the case, though, not in this matchup.
I like Swift 80+ yards and Monangai 50+ yards as a +1150 SGP together (bet365), and are you ready for a bomb? How about Swift 100+ rushing yards and Monangai 70+ in a Bears win?
That's +6500 at bet365, but that just hit in Chicago's last win with both backs on the field against the Saints!
Pick: D’Andre Swift & Kyle Monangai Rushing Yds Overs
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Saints vs Panthers Moneyline Pick
We've been on a hot streak with upsets, hitting both the Dolphins and Jets two weeks ago, then the Panthers +750 ML last week. This week, we're picking against those Panthers, now hefty favorites this time around.
Carolina has not won a game as a favorite since September 2021. The Panthers have lost 10 times in a row as favorites, the longest such losing streak since the 1970 merger.
Just like last week when we backed Carolina, the matchup here is key — but this time, some of the same things we liked about the Panthers as an underdog now work against them as the favorite.
We liked Carolina last week because they can run and stop the run. That matched up well against a run-heavy Packers squad with a beatable run defense.
However, the one real strength of this Saints team is their run defense. Carolina leads the league in inside runs but comes into the game with a banged-up C-RG-RT combo, along with Rico Dowdle, and the Saints rank 26th in EPA per play defending outside runs but 5th inside.
And for as good as Carolina's run defense has been, the Panthers rank 29th in EPA per play against inside runs themselves, where New Orleans prefers to run the ball and may find some surprising success.
This looks like an ugly, low-scoring game. The total is below 40, and it looks windy with plenty of trends pointing under. Low scoring means a close game late and a chance for the underdog to steal.
Since 2019, underdogs that have scored 16 or fewer points in each of the last three games are 62% ATS — that's the Saints. By contrast, favorites that have scored 16 or less in each of their last three are 33% since 2018 — that's Carolina.
We have only four matchups since 2018 in which both of those things are true. The underdog is 3-1 ATS in those games, winning twice outright and losing another one by a single point.
Tyler Shough didn't look too bad in his first start as a pro. Let's bet him to get his first NFL win at +215 on Saints ML (FanDuel).
Pick: Saints Moneyline (+215)
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Cardinals vs Seahawks Player Props: Kenneth Walker
I've been riding the Seahawks train week after week, and I really wanted to bet Seattle -6.5 here. This team sits atop my current power ratings, and I make this game north of -10.
Five of six Seattle wins this season are by at least seven points, covering this number — but the one miss was a field-goal win against these Cardinals, a game Seattle dominated through three quarters before a goofy finish.
That's been Arizona's modus operandi this season. The Cards haven't lost by more than four points all season, making them a perfect 8-0 against this spread. There are too many trends and people I trust eyeing Arizona to need Seattle as a big favorite this week.
The other thing holding me back is that I'm starting to believe in this Hunter Rallis defense. Arizona is now top 10 in DVOA overall and against the pass, and the Cardinals rank 6th in EPA per play against the run.
Seattle wants to run; the Seahawks rank fourth among the run-heaviest teams. But Arizona wants opponents to run too, and Seattle isn't actually good at rushing. That's arguably the worst thing Seattle does, ranking 24th by DVOA. They just want you to match their heavy personnel so Klint Kubiak can dial up the play-action and let Sam Darnold attack deep.
Rallis is stubborn, though, and he might invite the run all game — and Seattle tends to accept that invitation.
That's why I like Kenneth Walker over 12.5 rushing attempts (-120, DraftKings). Arizona has allowed six straight RB1s to top that number, and that includes 19 carries by Walker in the previous meeting. Heck, Zach Charbonnet had 12 himself in that one, almost going over, too!
Charbonnet is consistently around 10-to-12 carries, but any fantasy football manager knows Walker's workload has been wildly inconsistent. He has 10 or 11 carries in four games but 16 to 19 in three others.
Against the Cardinals in his career, Walker has 21, 26, 26, 17, 16 and 19 rushing attempts. That's an average of 20.8 carries a game, and Arizona has allowed 15, 17, 19, and 21 rushing attempts to the opposing RB1 in four of the last six games.
I'm not playing the yardage — I don't actually trust Walker to produce.
But playing the rushing attempts gives us multiple scripts to win. Maybe Seattle wins as expected, with Walker logging big carries to run out the clock. Or maybe Seattle's offense stalls because the Seahawks keep feeding Walker and can't move the ball. Either way, we win.
Can I interest you in a Kenneth Walker rushing attempts escalator?
Play 18+ carries at +379, along with 20+ at +650 (DraftKings). Those are right in line with Walker's usual workload against Arizona.
We're obliged to touch 24+ carries too at +1740 at the top of the escalator (DraftKings). Walker did that once each of the last two seasons and five times in his young career — including twice against Arizona!
Pick: Kenneth Walker Over 12.5 Rush Attempts (-120) + Escalator
Rams vs 49ers Best Bet
We took Rams -3 on the Hot Read as our first pick Sunday night. We've got some good value there now that the line is up to -4.5 and rising.
There's not much value left on a Rams spread now, but we can still invest in this elite offense against what might be the worst defense in the league.
Injuries have demolished San Francisco. The 49ers also rank 31st in EPA per play against the middle of the field, so Puka Nacua should eat, and Matthew Stafford had his biggest game of the season in the first meeting.
Usually, with Nacua, I just want receptions, but books are steering us away by pricing 8+ receptions at -130 juiced. But when Nacua does catch at least eight passes, as he's done 15 times in his career, he also racks up yardage — at least 85 yards in all but one game, with 100+ yards in 11-of-15 (73%).
The 49ers allow the seventh-most yards to opposing WRs. Nacua had 10 catches for 85 yards in the first meeting this year, and the similarly styled Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 9/124. The 49ers also rank in the bottom 10 in EPA per play against deep passes, while the Rams rank in the top four in passing deep and go there often, leaving the possibility of a big chunk play.
Play Nacua 100+ receiving yards at +116 (DraftKings).
He averages 126 YPG in his 15 games with 8+ catches, and he topped 150 yards in 40% of them, so play the yardage escalator at 120 yards for +223 and 150+ at +600 (both at DraftKings).
Pick: Puka Nacua 100+ Rec. Yds (+116) + Escalator
Browns vs Jets Total Prediction
This looks like one of the ugliest games of the year — two bad, tanking teams that probably both prefer to lose in a windy, rainy game with a line that flipped from Jets -2.5 to Browns -2.5 after New York traded away its two best defensive players.
Both offenses have been terrible all season, and both teams are coming out of the bye. Typically, trends tell us to bet the under there, and this thing screams ugly, rainy, unwatchable 13-9 game at first glance.
Surprise! We're going over, and we're taking the escalator.
When both teams are rested in a game with a total under 40, games are actually 8-2 to the over in the last two decades, going over by 6.8 PPG, almost a full touchdown. When the total is 38 or below, like this one, they're 5-0 to the over with at least 44 points in every game and an average of 50.6 PPG.
That's a tiny sample, but dig a little deeper and you find some glimmers of hope.
As ugly as Browns games have been, they've still hit at least 37 points all but three times this season, including three at 44+ and a 58. And though the Jets have memorably awful games with 19 and 24 total points, the rest of their games are at 40 or higher, and the average total in those games finished at 57.7 PPG with total scores of 56, 59, 66, and 77 — forgot about those weird Jets shootouts, didn't you?
The Jets defense has been terrible, so that's part of it. New York ranks 30th in DVOA defensively, and that was before trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams.
The Browns also enter this game with a new play caller in OC Tommy Rees. That's an unknown, but it can hardly get worse for this Browns offense, so maybe Rees has some magic up his sleeve against a beatable defense.
The other side of the ball is a tougher sell, since the Browns defense has looked so good. But check the home-road splits.
Cleveland has allowed 11.0 PPG in three home games, and not exactly easy opposition: Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Mike McDaniel's Dolphins. But on the road, the Browns have allowed 32.5 PPG, a massive difference.
Weird, right? But here's what's weirder. Two years ago, when Jim Schwartz's defense was elite, it had the exact same splits: 13.9 PPG allowed at home but 31.3 PPG on the road.
Jets games are also 11-4 to the over in their last 15.
I've seen enough. Give me the over 37.5 — but we're not stopping there.
Ugly unders are a sweat, because any score at any time threatens our total. But those games can go way over, because when the scoring does start, it can fly over the number in a hurry. That's right, we're taking an ugly Browns-Jets over escalator.
Start with over 43.5 at +220, right below that key totals number. Even the Browns have hit that number four times already this season.
Then keep going all the way up — and I do mean all the way. Sprinkle over 49.5 at +390, over 55.5 at +830, over 59.5 at +1300, and over 65.5 at +2500, all at FanDuel.
With any luck, this will turn into one of those goofy 39-38 shootouts that lead the Sunday recap. Everyone else will be shocked. We'll just be counting our winnings.
Pick: Over 37.5 + Escalators (All the Way Up)
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Patriots vs Buccaneers Best Bets
This is such a fascinating game. Neither team is probably quite as good as its record, and this is an interesting test for Patriots QB Drake Maye against Todd Bowles' rested defense since the Patriots have played such a soft schedule.
It's an intriguing matchup of coaching styles and personnel groupings. Neither team should run much, given the strength of both run defenses, but both offenses look likely to be missing key names.
The Bucs are still not sure they will get Bucky Irving or Chris Godwin back even after the bye, and the Patriots are without Kayshon Boutte and Rhamondre Stevenson.
Both defenses have been good against base 11 personnel, but both offenses prefer to play in 12, with multiple tight ends on the field. The Bucs have leapt from 19% in 12 personnel in the first five games to 39% the last three games, with so many WRs hurt.
That means Cade Otton, as usual, but it's also meant an increase in Payne Durham snaps, from around 25% to almost half over the last three games.
You're forgiven if you haven't noticed, though. Durham has had one single target all season and didn't catch it, so he's yet to have a reception, despite all that time on the field.
The Patriots are tied for sixth in most TDs allowed to opposing TEs, and it's not exactly a murderer's row — guys like Tommy Tremble, Mitchell Evans, and Taysom Hill.
Could Payne Durham join the list? Let's find out at +1000 for an Anytime TD (bet365) for a guy that should be on the field around half the time in what should be a high-scoring game.
The truth, though, is that I stumbled onto the Durham price while looking for Otton props, because he gets almost the entire TE workload for this team in the passing game.
The Patriots allow the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. They've already allowed at least four receptions to eight different TEs, four in the last three games alone. They've also allowed TE reception games of 8, 9, 10, and 10. Those are usually split up among a few guys, but in Tampa, it's usually just Otton catching passes at TE!
Otton had only six catches in the first four games of the season, but he's had 20 in the last four, with 4+ catches in all of them and 5.0 per game. He has at least four catches in over half of his last 20 games, including games with 7, 8, 8, and 9 receptions.
I was hoping to play Otton over 3.5 receptions, but his line posted 4.5, so I'll skip the median and go with the high-end numbers with a Tampa Bay team so shorthanded and lacking pass-catching options.
Play the Otton receptions escalator: seven catches for +350, eight for +700, and 9+ for +1200, all at bet365.
Pick: Payne Durham TD (+1000) & Cade Otten Receptions Escalators
Panthers vs Falcons (Week 11 Lookahead Pick)
Last week's Lookahead pick was one of my favorites of the season — Lions -3 in a revenge spot against an ailing Washington squad. That pick is looking pretty tasty a week later with Jayden Daniels out.
This week's Lookahead is a bit less aggressive, but it's all about the spot.
We started our day in Berlin long ago with the Falcons and Colts, but now Atlanta has to cross six time zones to return home for a game without a bye week.
When teams return from an international game with no bye, those tired teams have tied or trailed in the fourth quarter in 16 of 18 following games. That tells us Atlanta should at least leave the door open for Carolina late.
The Panthers have won six of 11 against Atlanta, and seven of those 11 were one-score games, so this division rivalry is usually close. Road dogs of between three and seven points are 56.4% in division games over the last two decades, so this is a good spot to back Carolina, whose stout run defense may hold up against Atlanta.
I make this closer to a toss-up, and the line may head that direction if Sunday's results go as expected, with Atlanta losing big to start the morning and Carolina getting a big win over the Saints.
If that happens, Atlanta will be on a four-game losing streak while the Panthers will have won five of six and fully entered the playoff race, and there's no way this stays above the key number.
Grab Panthers +3.5 while it's available.
Pick: Panthers +3.5
Brandon's NFL Week 10 Betting Card
- Ravens Over 26.5 Team Total & Over 33.5 (+270)
- Bills 2nd Half -3.5 (-110) + James Cook Overs
- D'Andre Swift & Kyle Monangai Rushing Yds Overs
- Saints Moneyline (+215)
- Kenneth Walker Over 12.5 Rush Attempts (-120) + Escalator
- Puka Nacua 100+ Rec. Yds (+116) + Escalator
- Browns vs Jets Over 37.5 + Escalators
- Payne Durham TD (+1000) & Cade Otten Receptions Escalator
NFL Week 10 Lookahead Pick
- Panthers +3.5
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