There are 13 games left in this NFL Week 9 slate, which has four teams enjoying a bye week: the Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
We have some clear-cut favorites, a risky moneyline pick, and several receiving yards and touchdown props for star players like Justin Jefferson and Brock Bowers.
For other games, it takes a little more creativity to pick some alternate lines and long shots. As always, there are recommendations to bet these games in multiple ways.
Let's get to my NFL Week 9 picks and predictions!
NFL Week 9 Predictions
Vikings vs Lions Spread Pick and Justin Jefferson Props
This pains me to admit as a Vikings fan, but Dan Campbell's Lions absolutely own this division rivalry right now.
Jared Goff is a perfect 8-0 ATS with the Lions against Minnesota. The Lions have won five in a row against the Vikings by an average of 10.2 PPG, including wins by at least 11 points in three straight home meetings.
Goff and this Lions offense have shredded defensive coordinator Brian Flores's defense, owning the middle of the field and getting the ball out quickly to playmakers to defeat all that Flores' aggression before it can get home.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has at least six catches for 60 yards in eight straight games against Minnesota — and this is as bad as the Vikings defense has been in years, too.
Now, J.J. McCarthy returns as quarterback for the Vikings after nearly two months away, magically healthy and ready after a season-ending Carson Wentz injury, just in time to face the league's No. 1 DVOA defense on the road in Detroit.
Yikes.
Minnesota invested heavily in its offensive line but has gotten horrid injury luck. McCarthy has held the ball too long and won't have that luxury against Detroit's pressure.
I don't mind just grabbing Lions -8.5, if you can only bet the full game.
Jared Goff is a ridiculous 75% ATS with the Lions in indoor games, and Dan Campbell is 71% ATS as a favorite in his career. The Lions are rested off the bye as well, with both Goff and Campbell profitable in that spot in their careers.
I prefer the Lions' first half at -5.5. We get below a touchdown, and we also get to bet against a rusty McCarthy right out of the gates.
McCarthy was terrible early in both his September starts, struggling to find a rhythm until the second half. And really, the Vikings have been awful in first halves almost all year.
Minnesota did lay the smackdown on Carolina, leading 34-3 at the half, but the Vikings are 1-6 ATS in first halves (compared to 5-2 ATS in the second half), so that was the only bright spot.
The Vikings haven't scored more than seven points in the first half outside of that Panthers game, trailing by 7.3 PPG at halftime this season, with an average score of 13.0 to 5.7.
The Vikings offense ranks dead last by DVOA in the first half, and those first-half woes have played out in this rivalry, too. The Lions led by an average score of 12.3 to 6.3 at halftime in their last three home games against Minnesota, and the Lions are 5-2 against the first-half spread this season.
There's one other reason to play just a Lions first-half angle — because the Lions secondary has major injury issues and we won't have to wait around in fear of a backdoor cover.
Detroit has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Lions have only faced two true superstar WRs so far, and both Rome Odunze and Ja'Marr Chase had at least six catches for 110 yards and two scores.
Enter Justin Jefferson.
Jefferson has devoured the Lions in his career. He has 1,208 receiving yards against Detroit, most against any team, with the Bears a very distant second at 729.
Jefferson averages 121 YPG in 10 games against the Lions, with at least 124 yards in over half (six) of those. He's had games with 182, 192 and 223 yards against Detroit!
That said, McCarthy is a bit of a reason for concern.
Jefferson caught just 3.5 passes for 63 YPG with McCarthy, compared to 6.8 for 95 with Wentz. But Jefferson's also gone over this posted yards line of 72.5 in six straight games since the opener, including one McCarthy game.
I'll skip the median outcome in case McCarthy is just a dud and go straight for some of the high-end outcomes.
Split your bet between 100+ receiving yards at +240 and 120+ yards at +475 (bet365). And if you like the upside, it's probably worth nibbling 150 yards at +1200 (bet365) and 180 yards at +3000 (DraftKings) since Jefferson's done that in the past against Detroit.
Remember, Jefferson is doing all this damage despite Detroit's dominance against Minnesota in recent years. This should play in any game script.
Pick: Lions -5.5 1st Half, Justin Jefferson Overs
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Saints vs Rams Best Bets
You probably already know the Rams will win this game. Los Angeles is favored by two touchdowns, after all. Not exactly breaking ground here.
But often, these huge spreads push bettors away from games as they don't want to mess with a high line. I prefer to find an alternative angle.
The Saints are certainly up against it.
New Orleans was already ranked 31st in DVOA on the season before announcing it would start rookie octogenarian Tyler Shough at QB going forward. Shough is an absolute statue, terrified to take a hit, and he'll play behind a bad offensive line that just lost its best player in center Erik McCoy.
Shough didn't look too bad in the second half against the Bucs last week, but Tampa doesn't offer much pass rush. A rested Rams defensive front is a whole different story. Jared Verse, Byron Young, and this young, speedy pass rush could make Shough's debut start a nightmare.
These are also the two fastest teams in the league. Tempo is good for the better team — it's just more chances to be better, in the end.
I was ready to slam a Saints team total under, but so were other bettors.
The line opened at 16.5 but was bet down immediately and now sits at a paltry 13.5, which is a tough sell.
I prefer a different angle: Rams to lead after every quarter, available at -120 under Team Props at bet365.
Effectively, we're betting the Rams to win the first quarter moneyline — price north of -300 on its own, a clear expected outcome — and then hold onto the lead at home and rested against a vastly inferior team starting a debut QB.
We need the Saints to be bad early, and they usually have been.
New Orleans played the Bucs to a scoreless first quarter last week but has otherwise trailed at the end of every first quarter this season. The Saints are 1-7 ATS against the first quarter number.
It's been ugly, and the defense looks just as at fault. New Orleans ranks 11th by DVOA in the second half on defense but 29th in the first half, including 31st in the opening quarter.
The Rams are better, and everyone knows it.
We just need the Rams to lead after a quarter, then hold the lead the rest of the game. That bet has hit in six of seven Saints losses this season. The Saints have trailed after 27 of 28 quarters in their losses — all but that opening Bucs quarter.
We can still have a little fun playing a Saints team total mineshaft, too.
The Rams have games this season allowing nine, seven and three points, two of those in their last two games. Saints under 10.5 points is +246 (DraftKings), and even a Rams shutout win looks in play at +1500 (FanDuel) if everything goes right.
Pick: Rams lead after every quarter; Saints TT mineshaft
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Jaguars vs Raiders Total Bet; Brock Bowers Props
I toyed with a Jaguars spread pick, but at -3.5 above the key number for a pretty average team on the road, it's a tough sell.
Jacksonville is coming off its bye week, and that should be big for head coach Liam Coen and this very green Jags staff, but the loss of Travis Hunter is a big late setback to the offense and the Raiders are coming off their bye as well.
Did Las Vegas find any answers offensively during the time off?
The Raiders' offense has been brutal — 30th by DVOA — but you don't just magically find blocking, receivers or a run game with a week to go.
The surprising strength of both teams has actually been their defenses, with both units at the fringe of the top 10 in many metrics.
That leads us to Under 45.5 (Fanatics), and this is a terrific trends spot.
The Raiders are 5-2 to the under this season, and both teams are 5-2 to the first-half under, so we should start slow.
We don't get many games with both teams off a bye week, but the under is 29-15-1 in those games over the past two decades (66%). Teams like the Raiders — coming off a bye after getting shut out — see games that are 8-1 to the under since 2009, per Evan Abrams.
The one bright spot for the Raiders is the healthy return of sophomore TE Brock Bowers.
Bowers caught five passes for 103 yards the first three quarters of the season before getting hurt, and he slogged through a few injury-plagued games since before sitting a few weeks out. He looks fully healthy and should pick up where he left off.
One of Bowers' best games last season came against the Jaguars, who rank in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends both last season and this one. Bowers had 11 catches for 99 yards against Jacksonville last fall.
We're getting artificially suppressed lines on Bowers with the uncertainty around his return from injury, but I expect a full go after the time off and the additional bye week.
That makes over 45.5 yards (Fanatics) an easy decision since Bowers has topped that in 14-of-21 career games (67%). He averages 68 YPG for his career, so you see the line suppression there. Even this season, Bowers had at least 38 yards in all four appearances, despite playing hurt in three of them.
Bowers has topped 90 yards in a third of his career games, including the one against Jacksonville last season, so we're obligated to play 90+ yards at +600 (bet365).
It's also worth playing some alternate reception lines.
Bowers has 8+ catches in a third of his career games, but that's available at +475, and he hit 10+ receptions last time against Jacksonville, although that's +1500 (both at bet365).
If Bowers is truly healthy, he could hit every one of those.
Pick: Jaguars Under 45.5; Brock Bowers Overs
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Chargers vs Titans Anytime Touchdown Pick
We're just gonna keep betting running back touchdowns against Tennessee until it stops being profitable.
The Titans appear to be leaning into the tank. This team was already dead last by DVOA, and now Tennessee traded away its best corner, Roger McCreary, and listed about half of its defensive starters on the injury report.
Tennessee's defense has been awful all season.
The Titans have allowed the opposing RB1 to reach the end zone in all eight games this season — a perfect 100% hit rate.
Kimani Vidal has a touchdown in both Chargers wins since taking the lead role, and he ran much better with Joe Alt back in the lineup last week.
Vidal is an unknown, but he's the only RB the Chargers have to offer at this point, so +100 for an Anytime TD feels ludicrous (Fanatics).
It's probably worth playing 2+ TDs at +500 (DraftKings) since the Titans have allowed that to three RBs already, and 3+ at +2200 (DraftKings) in case Vidal goes full Jonathan Taylor and matches what he's done twice against Tennessee already.
Pick: Kimani Vidal TD (+100)
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Colts vs Steelers Player Props: Tyler Warren
This sure looks like a clear Rah Rah spot for the Steelers and a chance to back Mike Tomlin, with Pittsburgh at home coming off a loss and a defense totally embarrassed, but I can't do it.
Some trends die at the end of a great career, and we might be reaching that point for Tomlin and/or Aaron Rodgers — and this Colts offense has been so good that it sure looks on paper like Indianapolis could put the final nail in this Steel Curtain defense.
I'd rather invest in another tight end against Pittsburgh.
We played a flurry of TEs last week for National Tight Ends Day. Tucker Kraft was my favorite going in, and he didn't disappoint, smashing the Steelers to the tune of 7/43/2. Pittsburgh has also allowed 8/90/2 to Hunter Henry and 7/81 to Harold Fannin Jr.
The Steelers have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing TEs, the second-most touchdowns and the most yards per game at 79. This old defense can't cover tight ends.
Tyler Warren has had an outstanding rookie season. He's tallied at least 38 yards in every game, and he has at least four catches for 53 yards in six of his eight games. That would be enough to hit the over 52.5 receiving yards line at BetMGM, and it's well below Pittsburgh's average.
Warren has scored a touchdown in four of his last five, and he gets short rushing opportunities sometimes, too. Pittsburgh has already allowed six TE touchdowns, so Warren is worth an Anytime TD play at +145 (bet365) — just be careful you bet Tyler, not Steelers RB Jaylen Warren.
You can bet over 52.5 yards and a score together at +225 (Hard Rock), and perhaps a touch on two scores at +1100 (bet365) in case Warren does what Kraft and Henry did against Pittsburgh already.
Pick: Tyler Warren Over 52.5 Receiving Yards; Anytime TD (+145)
49ers vs Giants Spread Picks
It's a sad state of affairs for San Francisco — my first Super Bowl bet of the season — that I just don't see much reason to believe these teams are that far apart from each other at this point.
Neither is particularly great at much. Three of the four units rank in the bottom 10 by DVOA. Only the 49ers offense doesn't.
That's mostly been the passing game, and that's better under the still-missing Brock Purdy with Mac Jones set to make yet another start.
The Giants rank dead last in run defense DVOA, and most years that would be enough reason to trust the 49ers. However, San Francisco hasn't run the ball well this season, and this is not a great stylistic matchup.
Kyle Shanahan's scheme is mostly zone-based, and the Giants are decent in that spot at 4.3 YPC allowed and 46% Success Rate — a far cry from the disastrous 7.1 and 59% allowed to man and gap-based schemes.
New York is also better defending runs up the middle, right where Christian McCaffrey has run best at 4.9 YPC versus 3.0 to the outside, where the Giants are weaker.
This total is rising with both defenses on the fritz, and if we get a surprising shootout, are you sure you prefer Mac Jones to Jaxson Dart?
I'd probably favor the 49ers ever so slightly, but still make this close to a coin flip in New York.
The 49ers defense is absolutely cooked. Nick Bosa and Fred Warner were the only two stars, and they're out for the season, but the replacements are also getting hurt. This exhausted unit was on the field for 75 plays against Houston last week, including about 80% of the first half.
There's some obvious selection bias for bad teams here, but per Evan Abrams, teams with at least 75 plays on defense are an ugly 13-23 SU (36%) the following game over the last two seasons. Besides, are we sure the 49ers aren't just bad now?
I can't help but feel like we left some meat on the bone last week in the 49ers' loss to the Texans. Houston won big and hit one of our alternate spreads, but it felt like the Texans should've won by even more.
I'm going back to the well.
Many bettors make the mistake of seeing a close spread and interpreting it as a close game, but that's not always the case. Over the last decade, 127 home underdogs of under three points won the game outright; 77 of those teams won by at least seven points (61%).
I'm not interested in Giants +2.5 or a moneyline here. I don't need the coin flip. If the 49ers truly haven't hit rock bottom yet, maybe a blowout loss in New York would do the trick.
Six of the last 10 Giants wins have come by 7+ points, half of the 10 by double digits. The 49ers have 11 losses in the last calendar year, and seven of them (64%) have come by double digits, with an average margin of defeat of 12.7 PPG.
Let's keep riding the 49ers down to the bottom.
Play Giants -4.5 at +230 — it's about the same price as -5.5 or -6.5, so we may as well skip those semi-key numbers — and let's go for the kill at -9.5 and +450 odds (both at FanDuel).
Pick: Giants Alternate Lines (-4.5 — +230; -9.5 — +450)
Panthers vs Packers Moneyline Pick
On paper, there's certainly not much reason this game should be competitive or even interesting.
I'm still in on the Packers, perhaps the most complete team in the NFC and certainly one of the highest ceilings. However, why does it feel like Green Bay rarely taps into that highest level?
It's hard to see the Packers giving peak effort here as the team prepares for a huge Monday night showdown with the Eagles in a week, and if Green Bay lets the Panthers hang around, it could spell trouble.
Carolina looked awful last week, but that might just mean it's time to put Andy Dalton in mothballs for good. Bryce Young has been mostly solid this season and should be back at quarterback.
These teams have a similar identity — both want to run first, then run again, and that should be even more the case in what looks like the biggest weather game of the weekend, with winds approaching 20 mph.
The Packers play slow anyway, and heavy running from both teams just means a shorter game, favoring the underdog.
The Panthers run defense was absolutely gashed by the Bills last week, but ranked third in DVOA before that one. If they can contain Josh Jacobs, could Carolina find a rushing attack of its own? The team is going back to Rico Dowdle now, and Green Bay's defense has been unreliable in recent years.
Any number of trends will tell you to bet a team like Carolina, which is coming off a big blowout loss — an obvious buy-low spot.
The Packers have yet to win by more than 10 points all season. Even when they dominate, they're leaving the door open.
We already saw them blow games against Dallas and Cleveland, and Carolina has looked bad in three games but was more than competitive in the others.
We hit crazy Dolphins and Jets upsets last week — never mind that we bet the Panthers, too — so let's see if we can hit another.
I make this game closer to -11, which would imply a moneyline closer to +425. We're getting a big payout at +750 (FanDuel), so let's give the Panthers a shot.
Pick: Panthers ML +750
Lions vs Commanders (Week 10 Lookahead Pick)
If this pick looks familiar, it should — it's almost identical to the angle we played on last week's Lookahead.
That was Seahawks -2.5 at Washington, and sure enough, that line flipped all the way past the key number to -3.5, giving us some juicy Sunday night CLV.
But if Seattle is -3.5 at Washington, how in the world are the Lions -3? I've been as high as anyone on Seattle, but pricing them ahead of Detroit is pretty aggressive.
I'm happy to keep fading Washington. WR Terry McLaurin is hurt again and probably won't play in this one, and stud LT Laremy Tunsil is dealing with a hamstring injury.
It looks like QB Jayden Daniels will play on Sunday, but who knows how healthy he will be. We've already seen him re-injured once this season, trying to return.
If Daniels looks subpar, or if Washington loses Sunday night in front of a national audience, this team will appear to be in free fall on a four-game losing streak, and there's no way this line stays at -3.
Besides, this is a game head coach Dan Campbell and the Lions have been waiting for all year.
Do you remember the last time these two teams played? Campbell does. It was 45-31 Washington in the playoffs, and it was a humiliating early playoff exit for the NFC 1-seed.
Campbell is old school, and he loves his revenge spots.
Remember when the Lions lost 20-19 to the Cowboys in December 2023 when OL Dan Skipper caught a two-point conversion that was erroneously ruled out? Campbell and the Lions remember. They played Dallas the following season and pummeled the Cowboys, 47-9, in Dallas.
I promise you, Campbell and the Lions have been waiting on this one. Play Lions -3 (DraftKings) while it's still there.
Pick: Lions -3
Brandon's NFL Week 9 Betting Card
- Lions -5.5 1st Half Spread, Justin Jefferson Overs
- Rams lead after every quarter; Saints Team Total mineshaft
- Jaguars-Raiders Under 45.5; Brock Bowers Overs
- Kimani Vidal Anytime TD (+100)
- Tyler Warren Over 52.5 Rec. Yards & Anytime TD (+145)
- Giants Alternate Lines
- Panthers Moneyline +750
NFL Week 10 Lookahead Pick
- Lions -3
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