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NFL Week 13 Projections: Data-Driven Picks for Steelers vs Falcons, More

NFL Week 13 Projections: Data-Driven Picks for Steelers vs Falcons, More article feature image
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Joe Sargent/Getty Images. Pictured: Kenny Pickett.

NFL Predictions for Week 13

Click on a pick to skip ahead
1H Over 21.5
1 p.m. ET
Adam Thielen Under 48.5 Receiving Yards
1 p.m. ET
Either Team to Score 3 Unanswered Times
1 p.m. ET
Texans +8
1 p.m. ET
Lions Over 51
1 p.m. ET
Gerald Everett Over 30.5 Receiving Yards
4:25 p.m. ET


Pick
1H Over 21.5
Best Book
Time
1 p.m. ET

Billy Ward: While I was hoping to catch this line at 21 or less, this is still an appealing number for an Eagles game. They score drastically more in the first halves of games than the second, yet the 21.5 total is less than the full game 44.

Beyond that, the Titans are one of the biggest pass funnels in the league. That should speed the game up, especially until/unless the Eagles get off to a commanding lead.

Assuming the full game line of 44 is more or less efficient, this is a great line to get on the first half. We should also be looking at live bets on the under around half time.


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Pick
Adam Thielen Under 48.5 Receiving Yards
Best Book
Time
1 p.m. ET

Sean Koerner: The Vikings face a stingy Jets pass defense, and Thielen should have to face Sauce Gardner at times in this matchup.

Thielen is coming off a nice 61-yard performance, but it took him nine receptions and 10 targets to get there. It was also a game that saw tight end T.J. Hockenson stay in to block more than usual.

Thielen does have a fairly high floor, but he has to compete with Justin Jefferson and now Hockenson for targets. In a tougher matchup, I like the idea of fading him.

I’m projecting his median closer to 43.5 yards.


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Pick
Either Team to Score 3 Unanswered Times — No (+140)
Best Book
Time
1 p.m. ET

Billy Ward: Back to the well with my favorite prop in a perfect game for it. This one has a reasonably low total of 43, but more importantly a tight one-point spread.

The Falcons extreme run-heavy approach and slow pace also help here, as it could limit the total number of drives in this game. While that’s somewhat accounted for in the spread, it’s still a positive here.

The fair line on this prop is about +115, so this is a solid value at +140.


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Pick
Mason Crosby Under 1.5 Field Goals Made
Best Book
Time
1 p.m. ET

Nick Giffen: There are some slight weather concerns in Chicago on Sunday, with 13-mph winds and cold temperatures in the forecast. The Bears offense has scored 29.6 points per game over its last five games with Justin Fields at quarterback, meaning the Packers will likely need touchdowns to keep pace.

In those same five games, the Bears have allowed just four field goal attempts total, with opponents only reaching two attempts once in those five.

The Bears also allow the second-fewest attempts per game, so there will be fewer opportunities for Green Bay to kick field goals. And the Bears defense is so inefficient, when scoring opportunities arise it more often than not results in a touchdown. In the last five games Fields started, opponents have had 24 kicking opportunities — five field goals against 19 extra points.

I project this under to hit 56.5% of the time and would bet it to -115.


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Pick
Over 51
Best Book
Time
1 p.m. ET

Billy Ward: Ford Field is quickly becoming the NFL’s Coors Field, with five of the six games played there going for at least 52 points this season. Besides the field conditions (indoor and turf), the Lions have an explosive offense and terrible defense.

Similarly, the Jaguars rank 14th in Offensive DVOA and 26th on defense. Neither team should have a hard time moving the ball here.

Finally, this game should also feature the debut of Jameson Williams, the Lions’ first-round wide receiver. While I doubt he has a major impact in his first game action since January, his big-play speed could at least serve as a distraction for the Lions, opening up underneath options for Amon-Ra St. Brown.


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Pick
Gerald Everett Over 30.5 Receiving Yards
Best Book
Time
4:25 p.m. ET

Nick Giffen: This is a very good spot for Everett as the Chargers head to Las Vegas to face the Raiders.

For starters, Everett has a median of 45 yards this year in representative games. That’s removing the Week 3 game Justin Herbert played against Jacksonville with an injured rib and the Week 10 game Everett left early against San Francisco with a groin injury.

Now he faces a Raiders defense that plays man coverage at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. That’s advantage, Everett, who has 2.22 yards per route run against man coverage compared to just 0.99 against zone coverage.

The Raiders also struggle against tight ends, sitting 22nd in defensive pass DVOA against the position. Everett racked up 54 yards on just three catches from four targets against the Raiders earlier this year. Now with the Chargers at two-point underdog on the road, it’s likely they will have to pass a bit more than in the first meeting, when the Bolts never trailed.

I have him projected for closer to an average 40 yards and a median of 37.5 and would bet this up to 35.5.


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