Download the App Image

NFL Week 2 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

NFL Week 2 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer article feature image

Week 1 is in the books! Time to turn our attention to Week 2 with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know.

Welcome to Week 2 of the Action Network NFL betting primer.

1. And We’re Back!

The Detroit Lions are listed as a 1-point favorites against the Commanders this week. Detroit hasn’t been listed as a favorite in 24 games, a record in the Super Bowl era. The last time Detroit were favorites? Nov. 22, 2020 against the Carolina Panthers.

2. First Time, Long Time

The Patriots and Steelers will play their first game without either Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger starting at quarterback since Dec. 6, 1998: Drew Bledsoe vs. Kordell Stewart at Three Rivers Stadium, a 23-9 New England (+4.5) win at Pittsburgh.

If the Steelers close as underdogs in Week 2, it will be the first time they’ve closed as underdogs in their first two games of the season since 2010 and just the second time since 1995.

3. “America’s Opponent”

The Dallas Cowboys are listed as 7-point home underdogs against the Bengals this week after losing Dak Prescott to an injury.

As of now, just 17% of bettors are backing Dallas to cover. The Cowboys haven’t closed with 25% of tickets or fewer at home since Matt Cassel started for Dallas in 2015 vs. Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets — a 19-16, New York win.

4. “I Own You”

Aaron Rodgers is 23-5 straight up and 21-7 against the spread vs. the Bears (incl. playoffs). Rodgers has won and covered his last six meetings against Chicago. Not to mention, Rodgers is 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS vs. Bears after a straight up loss.

5. “He Beat Me. Straight Up.”

Under Mike Vrabel, the Titans have played a total of 28 games as an underdog of a field goal or more. Tennessee is 19-9 SU and 20-8 ATS, profiting a $100 bettor $2,989 on the moneyline.

Of the 136 NFL coaches to be listed as an underdog of a field goal or more since 2018, Vrabel is the most profitable coach straight up.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, September 18, 10a ET.

NFL Week 2


Click on a topic to skip ahead
Thursday Night Football
KC 27, LAC 24
Market Movers
Biggest Week 2 line moves
Sharp Report
How the pros are betting Week 2
The Big Picture
How to bet Week 1 overreaction
Action Audio
Best NFL podcasts for Week 2
Rapid Fire
Week 2 game-by-game betting notes
What’s Next?
Early Week 3 betting trends

Thursday Night Football

Thursday, Sept. 15
8:20 p.m. ET
NBC
Chargers Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+3.5
52.5
+170
Chiefs Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-3.5
52.5
-200
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Just A Teaser

Justin Herbert is 23-8 in his career in a 6-point teaser, including 10-2 when listed as an underdog and 7-1 as an underdog of 3 or more.

Simply Consistent

The over is now 8-1 in Patrick Mahomes’ last nine starts, including the playoffs.

In Mahomes’ three meetings against the Chargers, the two teams have combined to score 54, 52 and 57 points.

In the Chiefs’ four home openers with Mahomes, Kansas City has scored 38, 33, 34 and 33 points, going 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread.

A Possible Advantage?

The Chargers are one of four teams in Week 2 who now face a divisional opponent in consecutive weeks (Saints, Colts, Packers).

Since 2003, this has situation has only occurred in Week 2 a total of 62 times and those teams are 38-21-3 ATS (64.4%). When those teams are coming off of a straight up loss? They are 20-6-2 ATS (76.9%) (only includes the Packers).


» Return to the table of contents «


Market Movers

For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.

Biggest NFL Week 2 Public Sides
(The most popular spread bets for Week 2)

(-7)
83% of bets at Cowboys
(+1)
64% of bets at Giants
(-6.5)
64% of bets vs. Jets

Most Bet Games by Ticket Count in Week 2
(The most popular bet games for Week 2; excluding Thursday Night Football)

(-3.5)
100,000 betting tickets
(+3)
95,000 betting tickets
(+2.5)
90,000 betting tickets

Biggest Line Moves in Week 2

Spread Movers (lines opened on Sunday night):

(+2 to -7)
9-pt move at Cowboys
(+13 to +10)
3-pt move at Rams
(-2.5 to -5.5)
3-pt move vs. Cardinals

» Return to the table of contents «


The Sharp Report

PRO Report

Jets

vs.

Browns

Sharp bet
Jets +6.5 | 1:00p ET
Bet %
CLE: 64% of bets
Handle %
NYJ: 70% of handle

If you want to make betting decisions for yourself, but don’t have the time to collect all the data, check out our NFL PRO Report. This analysis highlights five key betting signals: big money, sharp action, expert projections, expert picks, and historical betting systems.


None reach threshold yet in Week Two. Check below for our spread, over/under and moneyline projections.

Our model’s odds compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade B of a 3.5% edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.


PRO Systems

NFL Perception System: “This system looks to take advantage of the perceptions that the team may not be very good based on last season’s results. Small dogs when the total isn’t too high have covered at a very high rate, and we removed Thursday Night Football games to avoid short turnarounds.”
Week 2 picks -> PRO Access



PRO Props

Top Props for Week 2: Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
Bet: Under 2.5 receptions (-120)

Prop projections and grades for every NFL player in the Action App.

How to use the Action Network’s PRO Report to make your betting decisions easier.


» Return to the table of contents «


The Big Picture

Super Bowl Movers: After Week 1, which teams’ Super Bowl odds have moved the most?

80-1 to 40-1


40-1 to 80-1


-3
40.5
+3

25-1 to 14-1


40-1 to 22-1


+2.5
50.5
-2.5

30-1 to 50-1


30-1 to 50-1


+5.5
51.5
-5.5

How to Profit off NFL Week 1 Overreactions
1.
Week 2 underdogs that failed to cover by a TD or more in Week 1 are 53-38-2 ATS (58.2%) since 2005.
Matches: Jets, Cowboys, Cardinals
2.
Since 2005, teams that scored 28 or more points in Week 1 have gone 54-83-4 ATS (39.4%) in Week 2.
Matches: Chiefs, Eagles, Lions, Bills, Commanders
3.
Over the last decade, if you simply blindly bet all teams in Week 2 coming off of a double-digit loss in Week 1, you would be 36-23-1 ATS (61%), with a $100 bettor up $1,121.
Matches: Patriots, Jets, Rams, Cowboys, Cardinals, Packers
4.
In the minds of bettors, an ATS loss can be just as bad as a straight-up loss. Week 2 underdogs coming off an against the spread loss are 56-32-2 (63.6%) since 2005
5.
Week 2 underdogs off a straight up loss have gone 64-32-3 (66.7%) when the line is +6 or fewer since 2005, beating the spread by an average of 1.86 points per game.
Matches: Panthers, Jaguars, Jets, Cardinals


For more content on NFL Week 1 to 2 overreaction check out Chris Raybon and Evan Abrams‘ pieces on the Action Network.


» Return to the table of contents «


Action Audio

  • The Favorites Podcast: After kicking off the season with a sizzlin’ 5-0 record in their Faves Five best bets, Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to survey the betting landscape for NFL Week 2. Together they look at underdogs, trap spots, struggling quarterbacks and so much more.

  • NFL Week 2 Player Prop Projections: Action Network NFL betting and fantasy football experts Chris Raybon and Sean “The Oddsmaker” Koerner are back for another look at their player projections for Week 2. Tune in to hear a deep dive of the guys’ projection models, how they compare to each other and where some of your favorite players sit in their rankings for Week 2.

For more Action Network podcasts, check out our page with a portfolio of ten different options across eight different sports.


» Return to the table of contents «


Rapid Fire

Buccaneers at Saints

Tom’s Thorn. Tom Brady is 1-4 ATS vs. the Saints over the past five seasons, his least profitable opponent against the spread.

Brady, Again. The New Orleans Saints open up their first home game of the year as home dogs against the Buccaneers. This will be just the second time in the last 15 seasons the Saints will be home dogs in their first home game of the season.

The only other time? Of course, in 2017 against none other than the New England Patriots and Tom Brady.

Bounceback Tom. The Bucs beat the Cowboys 19-3 in Week 1. Since Tom Brady went to Tampa, the Bucs are 5-0 SU/ATS a game after scoring 21 points or fewer, covering the spread by 18 PPG.

-2.5
43.5
+2.5

Patriots at Steelers

New Era. The Patriots and Steelers will play their first game without either Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger since Dec. 6, 1998: Drew Bledsoe vs. Kordell Stewart at Three Rivers Stadium, a 23-9 New England (+4.5) win at Pittsburgh.

Rare Dogs. If the Steelers close as underdogs in Week 2, it will be the first time they’ve closed as underdogs in their first two games since the 2010 season and just the second time since 1995.

GOAT vs. GOATBill Belichick is 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS vs. Mike Tomlin (Belichick is Tomlin’s second-least profitable opposing coach ATS; 1-4 vs. Mike McCarthy).

The Anti-Tomlin. Since 2019, the Steelers are 1-7 ATS the week after a straight up upset of 3 points or more.

-3
40.5
+3

» Return to the table of contents «


Dolphins at Ravens

Half Life. Over the last 5 seasons, Lamar Jackson is the most profitable QB against the first half spread at 35-18-1 (66%), making a $100 bettor $1,483. It’s not just Lamar. John Harbaugh is 139-93-8 (58.9%) against the 1st half spread as coach of the Ravens, good for a 14.4% ROI, best in the NFL.

Ground Game. Ravens rushed for just 63 yards against the Jets in Week 1. Since 2019, Ravens have rushed for fewer than 100 yards three times. They are 3-0 ATS in their next game.

+3.5
44.5
-3.5

Jets at Browns

Road Woes. Over the past five years, the Jets are 12-26-1 against the spread (31.6%) on the road, worst in the NFL (most ATS losses in the past five years). A $100 bettor is down $1,495, failing to cover the spread by 3.7 PPG. When the Jets’ opponent is above .500? They are 4-13-1 ATS (23.5%), failing to cover by 5.3 PPG.

Flat Air. Browns are the first team to average 4 yards per attempt or fewer in Week 1 since the 2019 Rams. Overall, teams to average 4 YPA or fewer in Week 1 are just 6-12-1 ATS in Week 2, failing to cover the spread by 3.4 PPG.

+6.5
39.5
-6.5

» Return to the table of contents «


Colts at Jaguars

Did You Know? The Indianapolis Colts don’t want to revisit their ending to last season, losing as 14-point favorites against the Jaguars, which eventually eliminated them from playoff contention.

It wasn’t just a Week 18 issue, though. The Colts have lost five straight games ATS vs. Jaguars and are 1-12-1 ATS vs. Jacksonville dating back to 2015, failing to cover the spread by 9.8 PPG.

Since 2015, the Colts are 1-12-1 ATS (7.7%) vs. the Jaguars and 57-42-3 ATS (57.6%) vs. the other 30 NFL teams.

-3
44
+3

Panthers at Giants

End It Now. The Panthers have lost eight consecutive games against the spread, the longest active streak in the NFL.

Down TurnBaker Mayfield went 7-6 ATS in his rookie year. Since then, he’s 18-30-1 ATS, losing a $100 bettor $1,196, worst of any quarterback in the NFL (92nd of 92 QBs).

How about Baker off a loss? More of the same. 6-14-1 ATS off a loss since 2019, second-worst in NFL ahead of just Mitch Trubisky (1-10-1 ATS).

MetLife Misery. The Giants upset the Titans on the road in Week 1 and now they are at home vs. the Panthers — a warning sign for Daniel Jones backers.

Daniel Jones Career ATS:

  • Home: 7-12 ATS (-$564; 78th of 82 QBs)
  • Road: 13-6 ATS (+$616; fourth of 84 QBs)
+1
43.5
-1

» Return to the table of contents «


Falcons at Rams

In The Hole. Only two Super Bowl champions have started the season 0-2 SU in the Wild Card era (since 1990): 1998-99 Broncos and 1992-93 Cowboys. The Broncos finished 6-10, while the Cowboys won the Super Bowl, again.

No Super Bowl winner or loser has started 0-2 SU since the 2014-15 Seahawks.

Rams like Ravens? Only one other defending Super Bowl champion has lost Week 1 of the following season by 20 points or more: the 2013 Ravens and in Week 2, Baltimore won and covered the spread.

Stafford Stunner? Matthew Stafford has started 190 games in his NFL career, his worst loss against the spread? As a 9.5-point favorite at home vs. Giants while with the Lions back in 2013.

Travel Advisory. The Falcons played at home vs. Saints in Week 1. In Week 2, Atlanta travels to L.A. to face the Rams. Since 2016, teams to play in EST and then play in PST the following week are 58-38-5 ATS (60.4%), covering the spread by 2.7 PPG.

+10
46.5
-10

Bengals at Cowboys

Such a Rush. In the last decade, the Cowboys are 84-68 straight up and 78-71-3 against the spread overall as a team. When they have a backup QB start, they are 5-13 SU and 6-12 ATS, including 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS when that backup QB is making their first start of the given season.

How about Cowboys coach and former Packers coach Mike McCarthy when it comes to starters? He is 128-92-7 ATS (58.2%) with Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre as his quarterback in his coaching career. With everyone else (eight total QBs)? He is 13-17 ATS.

Not The Best. Dak Prescott is 48-40-2 ATS (54.5%) in his NFL career. All other Dallas quarterbacks since Dak’s first start in 2016 are 6-6 ATS.

How about Cowboys coach and former Packers coach Mike McCarthy when it comes to starters? He is 128-92-7 ATS (58.2%) with Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre as his quarterback in his coaching career. With everyone else (eight total QBs)? He is 13-17 ATS.

Different Dallas. The Cowboys are listed as home underdogs in their first two home games for the first time since 2002.

Turnover Trouble? The Bengals lost the turnover battle five to zero in their 23-20 overtime loss to the Steelers. Since 2016, teams with a turnover differential of five or worse are 5-14 ATS in their next game. 

Bounceback Burrow. Joe Burrow is 10-3 ATS off of a loss in his NFL career. A $100 bettor would be up $609, the most profitable quarterback ATS off a loss in the NFL since 2020. Last year, Burrow was 4-0 SU/ATS on road after a loss.

The Black & Blue Effect. Since 2016, the Bengals are 6-14 SU and 7-13 ATS after playing the Steelers or Ravens. Burrow is 2-4 SU/ATS, failing to cover by 6.6 PPG.

-7
41.5
+7

Seahawks at 49ers

Big Number. The Seahawks are currently 9-point underdogs in Week 2 at the 49ers. Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1976, this would be the largest spread for the 49ers against the Seahawks. Previous high came back in 2002 as 8.5-point favorites.

Chalk Trouble. The 49ers are 5-7 SU and 2-9-1 ATS as a favorite vs. the NFC West under Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers haven’t covered in this spot since 2019. When San Francisco is at home in this spot, they are 2-5 SU and 0-6-1 ATS.

The Impact of Soldier Field. The 49ers lost to the Bears in Chicago last week. Since 2003, teams coming off a game in Chicago are 92-58-3 ATS (61.3%) the week after playing the Bears, a $100 bettor would be up $2,988, the most of all 32 NFL franchises.

Not Taking Advantage. The 49ers faced three teams on short rest last season: They went 0-3 SU and ATS in those games.

+9
40.5
-9

» Return to the table of contents «


Bears at Packers

Lambeau Leap. Aaron Rodgers is 19-9 ATS at home over the past three seasons. A $100 bettor would be up $845, most in the NFL and the most profitable three-year stretch at home ATS for Rodgers.

Will Rodgers Rebound?

  • Rodgers has covered 11 consecutive regular season starts after a straight up loss. His last loss in this spot? 2018 vs. Cardinals and Josh Rosen.
  • Rodgers is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS when playing a divisional opponent after a divisional loss (He’s faced Chicago twice in this spot. He’s 2-0 SU/ATS, beating the Bears, 73-20).
  • Rodgers at home in primetime: 28-5 SU, 22-10-1 ATS. When facing the NFC North? 17-3 SU, 15-5 ATS.
  • This is the fourth time in Rodgers’ career the Packers have scored seven points or fewer. The previous three times? Packers went 3-0 SU/ATS in the next game, covering the spread by 13.2 PPG (Green Bay won by a combined score of 90-34).
  • Since 2016, Rodgers is 7-0 SU/ATS after scoring 14 points or less in his previous game.

Rare Dog. The Bears won outright in Week 1 at home vs. the 49ers and are now 9.5-point underdogs vs. the packers. Here is a list of the biggest Week 2 underdogs in primetime for 1-0 SU teams since 2003:

+10.5 — 2013 Jets (Lost SU, won ATS)
+10 — 2022 Bears
+7 — 2012 Lions (Lost SU/ATS)

+10
41.5
-10

Titans at Bills

The Ultimate Rest. The Bills are the first team since 2012 to have at least 11 days rest in Week 2 (TNF to MNF).

A Decade Later. If the Titans lose to the Bills, it will be the first time since 2012 Tennessee will start the season 0-2 straight up.

Over The RoadSince Ryan Tannehill was traded from the Dolphins to the Titans in 2019, the Titans are 17-6 (73.9%) to the over on the road, a $100 bettor would be up $1,034 — almost $500 more than the second-most profitable quarterback in that span (Philip Rivers). Road over is 12-3 in last 15 games with Titans, going over by 6 PPG.

Second To None. The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills second half. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 42-22-3 (65.6%) against the second half spread.

Scared to ride Buffalo after they lead at the half? Don’t. Bills are 26-11-1 (70.3%) against the second half spread when leading at the half. When leading at the half, the Bills have covered the second half spread in 14 of their last 16 games.

Feast Week. Derrick Henry loves playing against the Bills:

  • 70 carries in four games vs. TENN
  • 334 rushing yards
  • Six rushing TDs in four games
  • Five TDs in the previous two games vs. TENN
+10
47.5
-10

Vikings at Eagles

Trend or Blip? Kirk Cousins is 2-9 straight up and against the spread in his NFL career on Monday Night Football, but he has won and covered two straight after nine consecutive losses.

Kirk Cousins on Monday Night Football
+ 2020-21: 2-0 SU/ATS
+ 2014-2019: 0-7 SU/ATS

+2.5
50.5
-2.5

» Return to the table of contents «


What’s Next?

Ravens at Patriots

  • Patriots face the Steelers in Week 2 and then the Ravens in Week 3. Since 2017, three teams have faced the Steelers a week before the Ravens and all three of those teams ended up losing to Baltimore.

Bills at Dolphins

  • One rule of thumb in South Beach: Keep your stay short. Teams are 9-4 ATS on short rest on the road in Miami since 2003 (six days or less), but just 9-18-1 ATS on more than a full week of rest.

Steelers at Browns

  • In the past 20 years, the Browns are 3-0 ATS at home against the Steelers in primetime.
  • If the Browns close as favorites vs. the Steelers, they will be listed as favorites in three consecutive games vs. Pittsburgh for the first time since 1988-1990, when they were favored in four consecutive games.
  • If the Steelers close as underdogs in Weeks 2 and 3, it will be the first time they’ve closed as underdogs in their first three games since the 1992 season and just the second time in the Wild Card era (since 1990).


» Return to the table of contents «


How would you rate this article?