NFL Week 4 Odds, Picks: Chiefs vs Jets, Cowboys vs Patriots, Browns vs Ravens, More
David Eulitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes.
Our betting analysts were all over their NFL Week 4 picks on Sunday night.
We have four bettors with six picks to help you get going on your Week 4 bets. Five games are covered, including two bets on Chiefs vs. Jets on Sunday Night Football.
Check out the NFL Week 4 picks we made right away below.
Note: All picks are using odds as of Sunday night.
NFL Week 4 Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Falcons vs. Jaguars
The Jaguars' upset loss to the Texans was a blow, no doubt. When you take a closer look at the box score, you see that the result is not indicative of the game that was played.
While Jacksonville lost by 20, they out-gained the Texans and also tallied 22 first downs to Houston's 15. An unconverted fourth down and a third-down-converstion rate lower than 50% hindered the Jags, though.
On the other side of this matchup, the Falcons got bodied by the Lions. Atlanta only tallied 183 yards of total offense against a weak Lions defense. Detroit also committed 119 penalty yards and managed to beat the Falcons by two possessions. No one will be rushing to the window to bet the Falcons this week.
Going into Week 3, the Jaguars were the seventh unluckiest team in the NFL according to our Luck Rankings. The Falcons were the 10th luckiest.
I feel confident in saying that the Jaguars' luck didn't turn around this week. I'd bank on the Jaguars' luck reversing course this Sunday at Wembley Stadium.
Pick: Jaguars -3
Buccaneers vs. Saints
The Saints still look very “meh.” I liked the Packers in their Week 3 matchup before New Orleans blew its late lead.
The Buccaneers are a popular pick on Monday Night Football as home 'dogs against the Eagles. If Tampa Bay hangs on or wins, there’s no way this stays above the key range for a 3-0 team.
The Saints do get Alvin Kamara back here, but I just don’t respect this New Orleans team led by Dennis Allen and Derek Carr as favorites. As head coach of the Saints, Allen owns a record of 1-6 against the spread (ATS) in division matchups. He’s also 4-10 ATS as a favorite and 2-7 ATS as a favorite of fewer than four points.
The total is stationed at 40.5. This is a matchup between two defensive coaches, so winning by anything more than a field goal is asking a lot.
When the total is less than 42, underdogs of four points or less are 81-47-2 ATS over the last five years.
Pick: Buccaneers +3
Browns vs. Ravens
I am surprised to see this total open above 40, as it should be closer to 39.5 by my estimation.
The three best single-game defensive performances in the NFL this season when looking at defensive success rate are the Browns in Week 1, the Browns in Week 2 and the Browns in Week 3. This is an elite defense that has a pass rush that will overwhelm the Ravens offensive line and will consistently put pressure on Lamar Jackson.
The Ravens ran for 186 yards against the Colts in Week 3, but it's going to be a much tougher task against the sixth-ranked rush defense, according to DVOA, through the first two games. Cleveland's DVOA rating will surely improve as well after holding Derrick Henry to 20 rushing yards on 11 attempts.
Deshaun Watson had his best game with the Browns in Week 3, but I am still not sold on this team's passing attack. The Titans defense is a notorious pass-funnel defense, ranking 23rd in DVOA against the pass. The Ravens also represent a more difficult task as the seventh-ranked defense against the pass according to DVOA.
This game will turn into the typical AFC North grind, with the first to 20 likely locking up a victory. I'd bet this down to 41.
Pick: Under 42.5
Patriots vs. Cowboys
The sky is not falling for Dallas. The Cowboys had 400 yards of offense in their loss to Arizona in Week 3, but they went just one for five in the red zone. They were also penalized 13 times for over 100 yards, and their defense got lit up for 7.5 yards per play by Josh Dobbs.
The Patriots and Cowboys both have top-five defensive units. New England managed to slow down the Eagles and Dolphins (24!), allowing 19.7 in their first three contests. The Cowboys defense allowed zero, 10 and 28 points in the first three games, coming out to an average of 12.7 points per game.
The key thing here is great defensive fronts vs. messy offensive lines.
The Cowboys will be without Tyron Smith, Zach Martin and Tyler Biadasz. Both of the Patriots' starting guards are playing hurt, and their top two tackles are out. That's bad news in a matchup against Micah Parsons, Matthew Judon and an elite Dallas defense.
We know the Belichick underdog script vs. high-powered offense: slow down the pace, protect the football. This feels like a 20-17 or 17-16 game. Also, both teams have seen the total stay under this in two of three matchups this season.
The line is already slipping, could go further with bad injury news.
As excellent as Trevon Diggs is, the absence of Diggs shouldn’t hurt too much in this matchup.
Grab the under at 42.5 before it falls into the key range of 41-40. It’s already dropping now.
Chiefs vs. Jets
By Ricky Henne
Did you watch Zach Wilson Sunday against the Patriots? Consider yourself lucky if you didn’t. His final stat line of going 18-for-36 (50%) for 157 yards and zero touchdowns was light years better than he even looked.
It’s a worse performance than anyone could imagine Patrick Mahomes ever authoring. The two-time MVP would probably have better games playing all four quarters by throwing left-handed than Wilson had against New England.
There’s no need to go into a deep dive on this one. While the vast majority of my recommendations are based on trends, stats, analytics and history, this one’s mostly grounded on what we’ve all seen over the years with our own two eyes.
This line opened at -7.5 and is -9 at most sportsbooks on Sunday night. Act fast and don’t think twice. I’d take this up to -10.5 as I can’t foresee many scenarios where a Wilson-led Jets keep pace with the Chiefs. I wouldn’t even be shocked if Kansas City tripled up New York on Sunday Night Football. Would you?
Chiefs vs. Jets
The Chiefs beat the Bears by a score of 41-10 in Week 3, but they only scored 20 points vs Detroit, and 17 points vs Jacksonville.
The real story is the Chiefs defense quietly allowing just 13.3 points per game. The Jets defense is awesome, and they are especially elite against the pass.
The Jets have scored 22, 10 and 10 points in three games with Zach Wilson under center this season, coming out to an average of 14 points per game. However, that number might even be a little bit inflated. Remember, that includes two spectacular plays by Garrett Wilson and an overtime punt return.
The Jets have seen 16 of their last 20 games stay under 41.5 points dating back to the start of last season (80%), and 14 of their last 15 have stayed under that number.
The under has hit in primetime games at a 60% clip over the last four years, which includes a 6-2 mark this year heading into Sunday Night Football in Week 3. The under has also hit at 61% clip over the last 2 years whenever the home team is tagged as an underdog.
Why the early bet? The total was 45 on Sunday morning, but that number has already fallen to 43 as of Sunday night. The key numbers for totals in this range are 43, 41, and 40.