Packers vs. Lions Betting Odds & Pick: Defense Will Carry Green Bay on the Road
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Green Bay Packers linebacker Preston Smith (91).
- The Green Bay Packers are double-digit favorites for their regular-season finale against the Detroit Lions.
- Our experts preview this Week 17 matchup, featuring betting odds and a staff pick on the over/under.
- You'll also find analysis of the biggest mismatch and Sean Koerner's projected spread.
Packers at Lions Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
- Odds: Packers -12
- Over/Under: 43
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
Odds as of Thursday and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
The Packers have, at worst, secured the NFC’s No. 3 seed with a chance to finish at the top depending on how Week 17 shakes out.
As of Thursday the Packers are double-digit favorites on the road, but bettors seem to be split on the spread and the total. About 53% like the Green Bay to cover and 51% of bets are on the over.
Can we expect a competitive game between two teams headed in very different directions? Our experts preview the key matchups to watch and what bets to make in this NFC North showdown.
Packers-Lions Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Lions
The Lions’ season is over and they don’t have too many key injuries heading into Week 17. None of the injuries on their report consist of skill players, but the two players who have been absent from practice are defensive lineman A’Shawn Robinson (shoulder) and offensive lineman Rick Wagner (knee).
Perhaps the biggest injury DFS players should pay attention to is to Jamaal Williams, who missed practice on Wednesday with a shoulder injury.
Since the Packers will be motivated to play their starters this game, that could improve the outlook for Aaron Jones even more if Williams were to miss this game. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Packers Pass Defense vs. David Blough
Under Blough, a third-string undrafted rookie out of Purdue, the Lions’ pass offense has stagnated in a major way, averaging just 4.84 net yards per attempt in his four starts. Meanwhile, Mike Pettine’s defense is starting to hit its stride.
The Packers haven’t allowed multiple touchdown passes since Week 12 and have done so only three times over their last 10 games. Green Bay’s pass defense ranks 11th in schedule-adjusted efficiency, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, and it also sits third in interception rate (3.1%) and 10th in Adjusted Sack Rate (7.7%).
Keyed by edge rushers Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith who both rank top-eight in sacks with 13.5 and 12.0, respectively, as well as defensive tackle Kenny Clark, who grades out No. 2 in pass rushing among all interior lineman in ProFootball Focus’ grades, the Packers should be able to limit Blough’s efficiency and force him into bad decisions that players like ball-hawking cornerback Kevin King (five interceptions) can capitalize on.
The under is 9-6 in Packers games this season, and their edge on defense against Blough should be enough to finish out the year with a 10-6 under mark. — Chris Raybon
Raybon: Under 43
The first thing that comes to mind with the Packers is how dangerous the offense can be with Aaron Rodgers, but Green Bay’s pass defense has been every bit as good as its pass offense — both rank 11th in DVOA.
This has created value on the under, particularly when the Packers are going up against divisional opponents with whom they have increased familiarity with. Per our Bet Labs data, the Packers are 36-28 (56.3%) to the under all-time in Rodgers’ divisional road starts.
The under is 5-0 in Packers division games this season, and given how overmatched Blough will be against Pettine’s unit, that mark is a good bet to remain perfect on the season.
Raybon is 188-143-10 (56.8%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.