Patriots vs. Bills Odds, Picks, Predictions: 4 Ways Experts Are Betting Saturday’s NFL Playoff Wild Card Game

Patriots vs. Bills Odds, Picks, Predictions: 4 Ways Experts Are Betting Saturday’s NFL Playoff Wild Card Game article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Bills WR Stefon Diggs, Bills QB Josh Allen, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, Patriots RB Damien Harris

Patriots vs. Bills Odds

SpreadBills -4.5
Over/Under42.5 (-115/-105)
Time8:15 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings as of writing. Find real-time NFL odds here.

The Patriots and Bills will face off in Saturday's primetime matchup on Wild Card Weekend of the 2022 NFL playoffs.

Buffalo lost the first game, 14-10, as a 3-point home favorite in Week 13. Then in Week 16, Josh Allen and Co. covered the 1-point spread with a 33-21 victory on the road in New England. But which team has the edge in the third meeting of the season between AFC East foes?

One of our analysts is betting on Bill Belichick's team to do it, but that's not the only action our crew has on this game — find all four of their picks below.

Patriots vs. Bills Picks

Click on a pick to skip ahead
Patriots +4.5
Patriots Win by 1-6
First-Half Under 22.5
Emmanuel Sanders Under 24.5 Rec Yards

Patriots +4.5 (to +3)

written by Phillip Kall

This game comes down to whether you think Josh Allen will make mistakes. If he can protect the ball, he has shown he can produce against the Patriots. However, one turnover and the New England is  right where it wants to be.

The same goes for Mac Jones and the Patriots' offense — one early turnover and the Bills are in the position they want to be in.

In a matchup of which team will make a mistake first, I'm going to trust the Patriots, mostly because they showed no problem keeping the ball out of Jones’ hands unless absolutely necessary. As long as the game is within one score, the Patriots will play safe and wait for Allen’s mistake.

I would not take the Patriots to win outright, but with the points, the decision was easy. Blowouts become much more rare in the postseason, so as long as I get them at a field goal or better, I will trust the better defense and run game.

You can read my full preview of this matchup here.

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Patriots to Win by 1-6 (+430)

written by Brandon Anderson

It looks like a cold, blustery day in Buffalo — and that sort of weather typically means closer, lower-scoring games with an emphasis on the run.

That leans in New England’s favor.

A low-scoring game makes me feel better about a Patriots win as well. The closer it gets, the more the pressure will be on the Bills.

New England is playing with house money. Bill Belichick will find all those little edges in a tight game. And if it’s close, I like New England. Belichick and the Patriots just win those types of games, and I don’t see them blowing the Bills out on the road. That’s why this is my favorite play for this matchup.

First-Half Under 22.5

written by Raheem Palmer

The Patriots and Bills will meet for third time this season in a matchup that figures to most closely resemble the first of those matchups as temperatures are forecasted lower than 10 degrees Fahrenheit. While we won't see as much wind this time — which is typically the biggest suppressor of NFL totals — I still believe we could see a lower-scoring game given the weather.

We also often see lower-scoring games when there’s familiarity between teams, like divisional foes.

Mac Jones had only three pass attempts in that first matchup, with the Patriots running the ball 46 times for 222 yards on 4.8 yards per carry. While I don’t expect their run-pass ratio to be that significant with the cold weather and Jones playing his first playoff game, we could see a more conservative approach to start the game from Bill Belichick. Plus, the Bills struggle to stop the run, ranking 11th in Football Outsiders' rush defense DVOA.

I'll play the first-half under down to 21.5 as this game should start off slow and heat up in the second half.

Emmanuel Sanders Under 24.5 Rec Yards

written by Sean Koerner

Emmanuel Sanders returns after a two-game absence due to a knee injury.

It's unclear how much playing time he'll see considering how well Gabriel Davis has played in his place, but I'm expecting both of them to run a route on about 60% of Josh Allen's dropbacks. That said, Sanders has been very inefficient over the second half of the season and hasn't topped 30-plus yards since Week 9. That means it'll be tough for him to clear this number in limited playing time.

The Bills have also uncharacteristically leaned on the run over the past three games, ranking ninth in rushing rate over that stretch.

I'm projecting Sanders for closer to 20.5 yards, but considering every yard is crucial in a market like this, I would only bet it at 24.5 yards.

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