Steelers vs Raiders Picks: 4 Best Bets on Player Props for Christmas Eve
- The Steelers are home favorites to close Christmas Eve against the Raiders.
- Our staff has identified its favorite Steelers vs Raiders picks, all of which are player props.
- Check out our Steelers vs Raiders picks below.
What better way to set the table for Christmas than with more football.
Raiders vs Steelers Picks
Brandon Anderson: Pickens is Kenny Pickett’s No. 1 receiver, not Diontae Johnson.
We saw it immediately when Pickett took over in Week 4, when Pickens had his best game of the season. Also, Johnson drops from 7.4 catches and 77 yards per game without Pickett to 4.4 and 41 when the rookie does start.
The Raiders defense ranks No. 32, dead last, in the NFL against No. 1 receivers according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. For me, that receiver for the Steelers is Pickens.
Pickens is explosive and can hit this total on one play. Other ways to bet the rookie receiver are over 3.5 receptions and his Anytime Touchdown Scorer prop, which is +340.
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Billy Ward: Jacobs has been on a tear during the latter part of the season, with at least 90 yards and 22 carries in each of his last five games. While he’s benefited from positive game scripts — four of those were Raiders wins — he still easily cleared his Week 16 prop in Las Vegas’ loss in that time span, a heartbreaker against the Rams.
The Raiders are slight 1.5-point underdogs here, but it’s not enough that we should have significant concerns about Jacobs’ workload. In an absolute worst-case scenario, this one should be close enough for the earlier parts of the game for him to get to 20 or more carries for the seventh straight time.
All of that is before we factor in the weather, which should significantly tilt both teams towards the running game. Temperatures are forecasted to be in the single digits, with sustained wind speeds in the teens.
Those conditions make throwing the ball a lot harder than running it, so we should expect a considerable workload for Jacobs. I’d take this line up to the 83.5 that’s available on some other books, but be sure to shop for the best price.
Matt Trebby: Chris Raybon is projecting Adams for 5.7 catches on Saturday night while Sean Koerner has him pegged for 5.5. We can get his over at plus money, though, so I’m backing one of the NFL’s premier pass catchers for plenty of volume.
Adams hasn’t cleared this line in his last two games, but he did in the five before that. It also isn’t for a lack of looks. Adams has gotten seven and nine targets in his last two games, though that pales in comparison to the 13.4 average he had in the previous five-game stretch.
Pittsburgh ranks 18th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric against the pass. The Steelers are also 20th against opposing No. 1 wide receivers.
Seven targets is Adams’ floor. He’s seen fewer looks just once this season, and that was in a shutout loss to the Saints. Assuming he sees his usual double-digit targets, which he has in eight of 14 games this season, Adams should clear 5.5. In those eight games, he’s gotten at least six catches seven times.
Sam Farley: Sometimes you just have to look at the trends when placing a bet. The Raiders are firmly in the middle of the pack when it comes to defending against the run, allowing 117.4 rushing yards per game.
Enter Najee Harris, who doesn’t feel like he’s having quite the impact in his sophomore season. However, despite a slow start, he’s really started to get cooking of late.
In the past five weeks, he’s walked in the end zone on five occasions. At +140, he’s a great value bet to do it again on Saturday night.