Redskins vs. Dolphins Odds & Picks: Can You Trust Either Team?
Matthew Emmons, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Josh Rosen.
- Our experts cover every angle of Sunday's Washington Redskins (-3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins matchup.
- Find their analysis of the betting odds below, complete with a staff pick and more.
Redskins at Dolphins Betting Odds & Picks
- Odds: Redskins -3.5
- Over/Under: 41
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
One of these teams is (effectively) tanking. The other just fired its head coach. And both are winless.
How should you bet this battle between two of the league’s worst?
Our staff breaks this game down from every angle, complete with a comparison to Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a staff pick against the spread.
Redskins-Dolphins Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Dolphins
The Dolphins have a long injury report, but coming off the bye, everyone was at least limited in practice, so I’d expect most to be trending in the right direction for Sunday.
Jordan Reed (concussion) still isn’t practicing, so I’d expect him to be out yet again. Case Keenum (foot) has also been practicing in full and is expected to start. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Redskins WR Terry McLaurin vs. Dolphins Secondary
Neither of these teams has much going for them on either side of the ball, but McLaurin is an exception.
After scoring 11 touchdowns on just 35 receptions in his senior season at Ohio State, this year’s 75th overall pick began his NFL career much like he ended his collegiate one — posting stat lines of 5-125-1, 5-62-1 and 6-70-1 in his first three pro games before a hamstring injury kept him out in Week 4.
McLaurin returned in Week 5 to post a 3-51-0 line against New England, which looks modest until you realize he accounted for 42.9% of Washington’s passing yards in its Colt McCoy-led “attack.”
This week, McLaurin gets his starting QB back in Keenum and could see a lot of the Dolphins’ top cornerback Xavien Howard, who after a strong Year 3 campaign has been one of the worst cornerbacks in football this season, allowing the fifth-worst passer rating (141.2) among 116 cornerbacks who have played at least 20% of the snaps. He grades out 97th at the position in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades.
Howard doesn’t figure to get much help from a secondary that ranks dead last in passing yards per attempt allowed (10.3) and 30th in yards per target allowed to wide receivers (10.3). — Chris Raybon
Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Redskins -3.5
- Projected Total: 42.5
In a matchup between winless teams, I’m going to avoid taking a side.
I had set the line at -3.5 if Keenum or Dwayne Haskins were to start. If they let McCoy get another start, I would’ve been more inclined to set this at -2.5.
I would lean toward the over here as the Redskins have been willing to let Keenum air it out. He’s topped 300 yards in two of his three full games this season. However, with new interim head coach Bill Callahan stating that he believes the Redskins didn’t run the ball as much as they should’ve under Jay Gruden, we could see a much more conservative offense that leans on Adrian Peterson in what should be a close game. As a result, I’m going to pass on the total as well. — Sean Koerner
Mike Randle: Dolphins +3.5
In a battle of teams with a combined record of 0-9, it’s hard for me to not take the home team getting 3.5 points.
Brian Flores stated that Josh Rosen is the quarterback for the remainder of the season, which should give some stability to the offense. Rosen has certainly flashed moments, especially in Week 3, when both Preston Williams and DeVante Parker dropped easy touchdown catches in Dallas.
The Dolphins’ recent use of running back Kenyan Drake has also been encouraging, with 32 combined carries and targets over the past two games.
Neither team is statistically effective on defense with Washington and Miami ranking 29th and 32nd in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA, respectively. The same is true on offense with both teams ranking 30th or worse in offensive efficiency.
With Gruden out after last week’s 33-7 loss to New England, this profiles as the best potential opportunity for a Dolphins win. I’ll bank on the Rosen-to-Williams/Parker connection to make enough plays to secure their first win of the season.