NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Red Wings vs. Canadiens (April 4)
Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Simon Edvinsson.
Red Wings vs. Canadiens Odds
|Red Wings Odds||-110|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
|TV||NHLPP | ESPN+|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.|
The Canadiens look to snap a three-game losing skid on Tuesday when they host the Red Wings. Detroit has won three of its last four games, which have all come against playoff competition, yet is priced evenly with the Canadiens in this matchup at -110. Continue reading for my Red Wings vs. Canadiens preview and pick.
Detroit Red Wings
Detroit seemed to suffer from a bit of a lull in form around the trade deadline, when it became clear that its once promising season would end without a playoff berth.
Derek Lalonde’s Red Wings have stabilized of late though, playing a very sound team game which has led to a number of impressive wins. Detroit bested the Penguins, Hurricanes and Maple Leafs last week inside regulation.
Over the last 10 games, Detroit has played to a very reasonable 49.44 xGF%. The Wings are also back to playing very sound defense with a 2.98 xGA/60 rating.
Top prospect Simon Edvinsson’s play on the blue line is an exciting bright spot as the Red Wings skate out the season. The sixth overall pick in the 2021 NHL Draft has looked steady throughout the first five games of his career. He is already a clear upgrade over some of the defenders who have played regular minutes on Detroit’s back end this season.
It is unclear who will start in goal for Detroit in this matchup, and the final announcement is meaningful as Magnus Hellberg has been considerably sharper than either of Alex Nedeljkovic and Ville Husso.
The Canadiens entered the season as oddsmakers’ third favorite to finish dead last, but they are now mathematically incapable of finishing 32nd as they sit 12 points up on Chicago with just five games remaining.
That could be taken as a slight win for head coach Martin St. Louis, who’s team has arguably overachieved preseason expectations despite having consistently horrific injury luck.
Montreal’s injury situation remains as bad as ever for Tuesday’s contest.
Kirby Dach made a brief return to the lineup playing top-line minutes, but was injured versus Buffalo last week. Rafael Harvey-Pinard, an exciting bright spot for Habs fans, and had quietly been playing at an extremely high level at both ends of the ice this season. But he missed Saturday’s contest and remains day to day.
Montreal has played to a dreadful 41.6 xGF% over the last 10 games and owns a 41.06% mark over the entirety of the season.
The club has already announced Cayden Primeau will start Tuesday’s matchup, which is a light downgrade from Sam Montembeault.
Primeau has done well in his only two NHL starts this year, playing to a +0.3 GSAx and .909 save %. Counting on such strong results continuing over a large sample is not overly logical though, as those results are better than he has managed at the AHL level this season.
Red Wings vs. Canadiens Pick
Betting on these lottery bowl-type games with two teams who’s fans are literally cheering for losses is not fun, as it is little harder to know what you are going to get out of either side.
Still, it is extremely hard to pass on playing the Red Wings here considering how significantly better their play has been so I am still willing to jump in. Detroit’s team play has looked drastically sharper recently, especially offensively, where it has a few more true NHL talents pulling on the rope.
Detroit is playing very respectable hockey comparable to middle-of-the-pack teams, while Montreal is a true lottery side which has been reflected in its recent underlying results.
Montreal has been considerably better at home and would have a considerable edge in goal with Montembeault — with Primeau, that edge is not as wide.
Ideally we will see Hellberg start in goal for Detroit, but even if it is Nedeljkovic, I believe -110 is a good number and that odds would likely not move below -110.
It’s hard to find a case to be made as to why Montreal is priced evenly in this matchup, and I think we have value backing Detroit down to -120.
Pick: Red Wings ML (-110 |Play to -120).
How would you rate this article?
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.