NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Red Wings vs. Kraken (December 1)
Tom Pennington/Getty Images. Pictured: the Detroit Red Wings
Red Wings vs. Kraken Odds
|Red Wings Odds||-130|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.|
The Detroit Red Wings will return home for the second leg of a back-to-back after taking on Boston at TD Garden on Tuesday night. The Wings come into the game with a 7-2-2 record on home ice and will host a Seattle squad that has skated to a 3-7-1 record on the road.
Are those records truly indicative of Seattle’s chances tomorrow night, or are they quite possibly nothing more than some early season “noise” subject to the randomness of the NHL?
Is Seattle Surging?
The Kraken have finally broken through with some better results, and at a surprising time, as wins in four of five have included victories over three of the league’s top four teams, with the lone loss coming in Tampa Bay.
All four wins have come in regulation, with a +7 goal differential, composed from a very strong 1.6 GAA and 3.6 goals for per game over those five games.
This is a roster which I believed would fare better than we have seen at the quarter-way mark this season, and an 8-13-1 record is certainly an underachievement.
The Kraken have scored effectively so far, with a 2.95 goals for per game mark good for 14th in the league, and I expect them to stay in the upper middle going forward.
The main issue has truly just been the play of goaltenders Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger, who were expected to offer the Kraken a strong 1-2 punch, yet the duo have combined to allow 15.5 goals above expected.
However, it is reasonable to expect both netminders to find some better form going forward, and would make the Kraken a considerably more dangerous bunch than their 8-13-1 record indicates.
Grubauer seeming has found his game of late, posting a .935 save percentage across three starts versus some stiff competition in Washington, Carolina and Tampa Bay.
Jordan Eberle exited Monday night’s contest vs Buffalo and is listed as day-to-day.
The Wings Remain Plucky
Jeff Blashill is quietly one of the league’s longest-tenured coaches and he is finally enjoying a little more success in his seventh season as the Wings bench boss after some very tough years.
The Red Wings own a 10-9-3 record at the season’s quarter way-mark, with some positive underlying numbers however you split the season, including a 51.31% expected goals rate overall.
General manager Steve Yzerman has done well to begin to re-tool the developing young Red Wings, and offseason additions such as Alex Nedeljkovic and Pius Suter both have made a difference for the team so far this season.
Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider continue to hang around the Calder conversation with their tremendous play so far this season, and both were far from tap-in selections at the time of drafting, and specifically Seider, who was taken sixth overall, appears to be a stroke of genius.
However as you might expect from a team tabbed with a season Over/Under at 78.5 points, the Red Wings do offer some notable roster “plugs”, and I am still not entirely sold overly positive results can be sustained from this roster, even if the season offers a whole lot of optimism for Wings fans and the analytics are sound.
With Alex Nedeljkovic listed as probable for Tuesday, we should likely see Thomas Greiss take the net here, although to see Blashill decide to sit Nedeljkovic and try to lock-down an easier win at home vs the Kraken would not be surprising.
Greiss owns a .901 save % so far this season, with a +0.6 GSAx rating.
Red Wings vs. Kraken Pick
Similar to the game against Buffalo, the Kraken should enjoy a favorable matchup advantage if they can tread water against the Wings top unit of Bertuzzi Larkin and Raymond, and I feel the Kraken offer more roster depth top-to-bottom, and if the goaltending stabilizes they are a team bettors should monitor all season long.
Expect the Kraken to come in and play with a ton of energy, and make life hard on a Red Wings team who will play a tough one Tuesday night in Boston. I think they can carry more of the play here as an underdog, although I certainly have respected Detroit’s play so far, and this is more of a comment on the spot and my perceived turnaround the Kraken will enjoy.
As well, upon further examination Detroit’s home record has come mainly skating against a number of weaker club’s, or heavily depleted lineups, and I am not overly concerned that they are actually just a complete juggernaut on home-ice as the 7-2-2 record may indicate.
The Kraken opened at +110 for this game and I think that number holds a lot of value and would act on it quickly, as it could shorten as we get closer to puck drop.
Pick: Seattle Kraken -105 or better
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