It's Sunday, and that means plenty of early afternoon games, although we have picks until the last matchup.
Check out our 5 MLB Best Bets Today, including picks for Braves vs Phillies, Yankees vs Padres, and Nationals vs Dodgers on Sunday, September 6.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:10 PM | |
  | 1:35 PM | |
  | 2:10 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 10:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Ryan Minion's Braves vs Phillies Best Bets
By Ryan Minion
Though Aaron Nola has improved in his recent outings, I expect the Phillies righty to struggle here, given his previous encounters with most hitters in an absolutely loaded Braves lineup. I expect this to be a clear regression spot for him.
Braves starter Tyler Mahle is currently in great form, so I favor backing the Braves on their moneyline as my first of three handicaps ahead of Sunday’s divisional showdown.
For my next two wagers, I will be looking to target Braves superstar OF Ronald Acuña Jr. to have a monster day at the plate.
Across 60 previous at-bats (AB) versus Nola, Ronnie has recorded 21 hits, with ten of them having been for extra bases — six doubles & four homers, while having driven in eight runners (RBIs) in the process.
Given Acuña’s established edge over Nola with an extensive sample size extending several years, I feel confident backing the former NL MVP winner to exceed his 1.5 HRR (Hits + Runs + RBIs) on Sunday afternoon.
Pick: Braves ML (-106), Ronald Acuña Over 1.5 HRR (-125) & 1+ HR (+410)
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Sean Paul's Angels vs Pirates Best Bet
By Sean Paul
If you told me in May that I would be ecstatic to fade Paul Skenes’ strikeout prop against the lowly Angels, I would think you were lying.
It just feels like the Pirates ace is searching for whatever works. His velocity is back up, but he went 4 2/3 innings and gave up five runs against the Giants on Tuesday. Just one start prior, Skenes went with a sinker-heavy approach, leading to just four strikeouts against the Padres.
He hasn't tossed more than five strikeouts in any of his past five outings.
Also, Skenes has pitched fewer than six innings in eight of his last 11 starts. With little at stake, it would be wise to play it safe with him.
Even against the Angels lineup, I can't justify Skenes having a strikeout total like a top-tier pitcher when he's been anything but one for 2+ months.
Pick: Paul Skenes Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115)
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Diamondbacks vs Astros BARTOLO Projection
By Sean Zerillo
BARTOLO's projections show solid value on the total for this Diamondbacks vs. Astros matchup.
The model projects the visitors for 4.74 runs and the home team for 4.34 this afternoon, bringing the total over the line.
If you want to dive deeper into this matchup, it'd be wise to check out BARTOLO, Zerillo's new PRO baseball tool that gives you access to all the input data he uses to project games every day.
Pick: Over 8 (-105)
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Derek Carty's Yankees vs Padres Prop
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on Gerrit Cole's pitching outs prop.
THE BAT X is projecting the Yankees starter to record 16.11 pitching outs against the Padres, while oddsmakers are implying 18.34.
The model believes there is a 59% chance he records fewer than 18 pitching outs, so there is value on the under at +160. This play is good down to at least -116.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Gerrit Cole Under 17.5 Outs (+160)
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Nationals vs Dodgers Bet Labs Featured System
By Bet Labs
The "Sunday Unders on Over Streak" system targets MLB games where the home team is coming off one or two consecutive overs, suggesting recent offensive outperformance or inflated totals.
The theory is that on Sunday —often the final game of a series and an early start—teams may rest key hitters, lineups can be inconsistent, and pitchers often perform better against lineups they’ve already seen.
This scenario applies to our last matchup of the day, Nationals vs. Dodgers.
With an opening total in the 8 to 9.5 run range, the line is high enough to offer under value when offensive regression is likely.
Betting the under in these specific setups has historically yielded a positive ROI over time.
Taking Unders with moderate totals (8 to 9.5) in Sunday games with home teams on an Over streak. Sunday games usually wrap up the series and are played during the day, usually after a night game.
Hitters may be worn out by the end of the week, and as a league, players tend to take Sundays off, so there's an added advantage to Unders.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-120)
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