Amanda Lemos vs. Angela Hill Odds, UFC Pick & Prediction: Will Lemos’ Finish Streak Continue? (Saturday, December 18)

Amanda Lemos vs. Angela Hill Odds, UFC Pick & Prediction: Will Lemos’ Finish Streak Continue? (Saturday, December 18) article feature image
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Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC fighter Amanda Lemos.

Amanda Lemos vs. Angela Hill Odds

Lemos Odds
-350
Hill Odds
+260
Over/Under
2.5 (-239 / +180)
Venue
UFC APEX
Time
8:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN+
Odds as of Friday and via PointsBet.

Saturday’s UFC Fight Night event will feature one of the biggest favorites on the card, Amanda Lemos, in a women’s strawweight matchup against Angela Hill, who has been incredibly active in the UFC despite the pandemic. This will be Hill’s eighth fight since the beginning of 2020.

Lemos has shown a rare ability to finish fights in the UFC with three of her last four fights ending in the first round. Hill has only been finished twice in her professional career (23 fights).

Which trend will hold true in this fight? I preview the matchup below.

Tale of the Tape

Lemos Hill
Record 10-1-1 13-10
Avg. Fight Time 6:10 13:49
Height 5’4″ 5’3″
Weight (pounds) 115 lbs. 115 lbs.
Reach (inches) 65″ 64″
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Date of birth 5/22/87 1/12/85
Sig Strikes Per Min 6.32 5.71
SS Accuracy 63% 50%
SS Absorbed Per Min 5.38 5.25
SS Defense 46% 63%
Take Down Avg 1.95 0.54
TD Acc 100% 34%
TD Def 100% 77%
Submission Avg 0.5 0.1

Lemos has a Muay-Thai stance and loves to throw leg kicks. Her ability to control the center of the octagon is going to be very important against Hill who prefers to strike.

Moreover, Lemos has knockdowns in each of her last three fights with two ending by first-round TKO. For Lemos’ debut, she fought at 135 pounds, which is bizarre in retrospect now that she is dominating at 115 pounds.

The only time we have seen Lemos go a significant amount of time in the octagon was against Mizuki Inoue. Lemos methodically picked her apart for most of the fight. However, Hill does profile as a step up in competition for Lemos.

Hill’s boxing is usually pretty clean, but her fight with Tecia Torres showed her speed is waning as her career continues forward. She did land two takedowns against Torres, but didn’t get enough control to really capitalize on positions.

Her path to victory in this fight is going to be in the clinch early and often. Lemos could be susceptible to some cardio deficiencies if Hill forces Lemos to carry her weight up against the cage.

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Lemos vs. Hill Pick

There is little value to bet on Lemos’ moneyline as such a big favorite. Hill did not look particularly strong while striking against Torres and could not keep Torres on the ground when grappling.

This could be a very similar outcome for Hill because she is very hittable in striking exchanges. Lemos’ power is going to be a problem especially since Hill constantly comes forward with her guard down.

Hill will still be coming forward in the third round, so don’t expect any late-round finishes from Lemos. Since this fight projects as a step up in competition for Lemos, there could be some problems for her to finish Hill.

Furthermore, if you are looking to bet Hill, it is not worth doing pre-fight. The best way to bet on Hill would be a moneyline stab after the first round.

The odds reflect that, with a good portion of Lemos’ win condition coming in the first round (+450, 18.18% implied). Lemos to win inside the distance comes in at +170 on PointsBet and a decision win is +112. Lemos has the power to knock just about anyone out. However, Hill’s ability to stay in fights to the final horn is legendary at this point.

With five straight fights for Hill ending via points, Lemos should have solid value to win by decision with power and volume combination. This prop is worth betting down to +105 before taking the fight to go the distance at -175 or better.

The Pick: Lemos by decision (+112)

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