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Michael Morales vs. Trevin Giles Betting Odds, UFC 270 Pick & Prediction: Back Experienced Veteran in Main Pay-Per-View Card Opener

Michael Morales vs. Trevin Giles Betting Odds, UFC 270 Pick & Prediction: Back Experienced Veteran in Main Pay-Per-View Card Opener article feature image
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Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC fighter Trevin Giles.

  • The Pay-Per-View portion of the UFC 270 card opens with Welterweights Michael Morales vs. Trevin Giles squaring off at the Honda Center.
  • Morales is the short favorite (-120) in the leadup, though Giles' odds have seen some movement.
  • Sean Zerillo breaks down the PPV opener, including his bet in the matchup.

Michael Morales vs. Trevin Giles Odds

Morales Odds
-120
Giles Odds
-105
Over/Under
2.5 (-186 / +144)
Venue
Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
Time
Approx. 10 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN PPV
Odds as of Saturday and via PointsBet.

Two welterweights who were initially slated to fight on the prelim card are now opening up the Pay-Per-View for UFC 270.

Michael Morales makes his debut after competing on DWCS and will meet Trevin Giles on the main card Saturday night. Despite his experience, Giles enters as the underdog and is seeking to get back in the win column after a knockout loss in July.

Below I preview how these fighters stack up and which side has betting value in this matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

Tale of the Tape

Morales Giles
Record 12-0 14-3
Avg. Fight Time 15:00 11:47
Height 6’0″ 6’0″
Weight (pounds) 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach (inches) 79″ 74″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 6/24/99 8/6/92
Sig Strikes Per Min 3.53 3.14
SS Accuracy 43% 54%
SS Absorbed Per Min 3.47 2.01
SS Defense 34% 60%
Take Down Avg 4.00 1.27
TD Acc 50% 80%
TD Def 100% 75%
Submission Avg 0.0 0.3

Giles, a career Middleweight, debuted in the UFC in 2017 at Light Heavyweight but will make his first MMA appearance as a Welterweight on Saturday night.

His opponent, debutant Michael Morales, earned his UFC contract as a +155 underdog on Week 4 of Contender Series last September. Surprisingly, Morales will enter his promotional debut as a slight favorite against an eight-fight octagon veteran, who holds wins over James Krause and Roman Dolidze.

Among the Contender Series debutants — and especially amongst the group on Saturday’s card — Morales has one of the higher ceilings as a prospect.

Still, this bout represents a step down in competition for Giles relative to his previous opponents, and a significant class hike for the 22-year-old Morales.

My primary concerns with Giles are his speed and cardio. He wasn’t a particularly big middleweight, but he may be a step too slow after dropping down in class despite an anticipated increase in power.

Moreover, Giles never had good stamina to begin with, and cutting weight could further serve to zap his explosiveness halfway through a fight.

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Morales vs. Giles Pick

Considering that Giles made weight with relative ease, I have to side with the well-rounded — if unspectacular — UFC veteran against a youngster facing the most challenging test of his career.

I projected Giles as a slight favorite (52%) and would bet his moneyline at his current price or any plus money price if you can still find it. However, I don’t show value on either side of the total or any winning method props for the fight.

The Pick: Trevin Giles ML (-105)

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