Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images. Pictured: Dricus Du Plessis and Khamzat Chimaev
Check out my UFC 319 predictions for every fight on tonight's pay-per-view at the United Center in Chicago.
Below, I look at the latest UFC 319 odds and break down and predict each bout on today's PPV fight card with updated odds. You can also find my prop and finish projections for each fight.
Let's break it down.
UFC 319 Predictions
After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value. And after looking at the UFC 319 odds, today's event is no exception.
So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 319 odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.
Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projections for each of Saturday's 11 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.
In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside the distance.
The first bout on Saturday's card is the Ultimate Fighter 33 Flyweight tournament title bout between Kazakhstani Alibi Idiris and California native Joseph Morales, who had a prior three-fight run (1-2, including a loss to Deiveison Figueiredo) in the UFC from 2017 to 2018.
The fighters are similar in both measures and age; Idiris accumulated an unbeaten record on Naiza Fighting Championships – a Kazak regional promotion, while Morales has spent time in Cage Warriors since his first UFC stint.
As of Friday morning, no prop lines — or even a total — are as of yet available for this fight. We'll revisit this matchup on fight day, and I will update this section if necessary, if I find anything actionable.
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Dione Barbosa holds a regional win over Karine Silva from 2019, and these two Brazilians are approximately the same age and size, with comparable skill sets, in a fight expected to reach a decision (listed -225).
Moreover, Silva is a popular favorite this week — with fans backing her to win the matchup more than 70% of the time; however, my betting model – which aims to balance public perception with betting odds – projects actionable value on the underdog, Barbosa, down to +155.
Moreover, I show value on the fight to reach a decision (projected 77%, -340), and on either fighter to win by decision (Barbosa projected +236, listed +280; Silva projected +110, listed +125).
I typically back the dog in close fights that are expected to reach a decision – and lean into scorecard variance – but in this matchup I would either bet the underdog on the moneyline or take the favorite by decision; I make a finish (by submission) a slightly larger portion of Barbosa's win condition, than I do for Silva.
Bets
Dione Barbosa (+180, 0.35u) at FanDuel (bet to +155)
As a fan of Edson Barboza, I'm trying to take extra care to analyze his fights objectively, as he nears age 40.
Edson isn't as explosive offensively, or wearing damage as well as he used to defensively. And he's dropping down from consecutive main events to an early prelim spot, following a one-sided loss to Lerone Murphy (out-struck 205-77 at distance and taken down four times).
Still, Barboza is the bigger man (2" taller, 5" reach advantage) and the more diverse striker than Drakkar Klose, whose chin is equally, if not more, compromised than Edson's.
Klose excels when he can counter-grapple and pressure box opponents, and thus, he may struggle to get inside the range of Barboza's kicks, but I'd expect him to prove the quicker athlete in the cage and to offer superior cardio in the second half of the fight.
Either way, I don't project any actionable betting edge on this fight — in the side, total, or prop market — and I don't think the cardio discrepancy is enough that it demands a live bet on Klose.
The closest thing I could recommend to an actionable wager is Klose by decision (projected +238, listed +250), but there's not enough meat on the bone for me.
Alexander Hernandez is often a handful for five minutes — with seven first-round finishes in his career — but he tends to fade by the midpoint of his fights, after overpowering every striking and grappling technique from the opening bell.
Pairing Hernandez with Chase Hooper presents an opportunity for Hooper to weaponize his pace and cardio once again against a smaller opponent (4" taller, 2" reach advantage). Hooper is seven years younger and will show far better tenacity throughout this contest than his opponent.
Hernandez is capable of winning violently early; Hooper has among the worst distance striking defense in the sport (38%), and if he's not cautious, he could get flatlined by Hernandez, like he did against Steve Garcia.
For that reason, Hernandez winning in Round 1 (+1200) is a worthy flier if you like the underdog.
Still, I'd expect Hooper to take over by the seven-minute mark of the fight. I would not only consider him live after Round 1, but would prefer pre-fight tickets on Hooper to win inside the distance (projected +114, listed -110) or in Round 2 (+510) or Round 3 (+700).
Rather than betting Hernandez Round 1, with Hooper Round 2 and Round 3, bet the fight doesn't go to decision (projected -186, listed -150) alongside Hooper's late round props.
Bets
Fight Doesn't Go To Decision (-150, 0.25u) at Caesars (bet to -175)
Chase Hopper wins in Round 2 (+510, 0.15u) at BallyBet (bet to +450)
Chase Hooper wins in Round 3 (+700, 0.1u) at BallyBet (bet to +600)
Jessica Andrade returns to the strawweight division on Saturday, where she holds the UFC divisional records for finishes (6) and knockouts (4) against Loopy Godinez, a well-rounded fighter who figures to proactively wrestle (averages 3.8 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance) against a dangerous striker.
Loopy is a popular favorite this week, driving my model projection towards the underdog, Andrade (projected +102; bet to +110), who is at size parity (1" shorter, 1" reach advantage) against a far less experienced fighter just two years her junior.
Andrade has certainly slowed in her recent fights — and is less willing to fight or scramble up from the bottom after takedowns than she used to be. She may be just past the point of no return, physically, at this stage of her career.
Still, this fight is heavily juiced to reach a decision (listed -270, projected -258). I would both bet Andrade on the moneyline and sprinkle her decision prop (projected +200, listed +250) in what I expect to amount to a close and competitive decision, where judges potentially prefer Andrade's power and damage (back down at 115) over Godinez's control time.
Bets
Jessica Andrade (+126, 0.35u) at FanDuel (bet to +110)
Michal Oleksiejczuk is a dangerous pressure boxer — with seven of eight UFC wins by Round 1 knockout — but he has a notable grappling deficiency (five of six UFC losses by submission) which he has attempted to fix by moving full-time to team Fighting Nerds — alongside former opponent and main event backup fighter Caio Bollalho, and the continually improving Rodolfo Vieira.
Gerald Meerschaert III ("GM3) holds the UFC middleweight record for submissions (11) — and is tied with Demian Maia for third most in promotional history.
However, nine of those 11 submissions have come in the second or third round — GM3 is typically losing minutes early before taking advantage of a tiring opponent, flipping the momentum, and closing the show.
To be clear, I think there is value on GM3 to win by submission (projected +290) or inside the distance (projected +259), and his odds to win in Round 2 (+1100) or Round 3 (+1600) are worth consideration in any mathup, in addition to a live bet after Round 1.
However, I think he's going to have to go through hell to make it that far against Oleksiejczuk — the younger and faster man who will close distance aggressively, cut off the cage, and rip combinations to the head and body to back GM3 against the fence.
Oleksiejczuk – a former Light Heavyweight — looks in much better shape physically after spending a whole camp in Brazil, and I'd expect a career-best performance from him in this fight (and career-best cardio if Meerschaert survives and the fight extends) after deliberately working to improve his anti-grappling.
Given the binary nature of this matchup, I like the Under 1.5 Rounds (-125), or would parlay the fight to end inside the distance (projected -510, listed -350).
Additionally, I show value on Michal by KO/TKO (projected -119, listed +100), or by Round 1 KO/TKO (+245), or you can include his moneyline in an SGP with the Under 1.5 Rounds (+135 at BetRivers).
Bets
Under 1.5 Rounds (-127, 0.25u) at BetRivers (bet to -150)
SGP: Michal Oleksiejczuk and Under 1.5 Rounds (+140, 0.25u) at Caesars (bet to +115)
Michael Oleksiejczuk wins by Round 1 KO/TKO (+245, 0.1u) at BallyBet
Baisangur Susurkaev will make his UFC debut on Saturday, just four days after his contract-earning performance on Contender Series.
Susurkaev closed as a -375 favorite in that matchup, and opened as a -850 favorite for his UFC debut against Eric Nolan, the CFFC welterweight champion.
Susurkaev is an extremely dangerous striker, with a 5" reach advantage in this matchup against a less physically imposing opponent, and his moneyline has already surpassed -1000 as of writing.
However, given the short-notice nature of this booking, there are no totals or prop lines available yet for this fight – we will reanalyze once they are posted.
I strongly anticipate a finish in the main card opener between Kai Asakura and Tim Elliott, in what amounts to a very binary striker vs. grappler matchup.
The average three-round flyweight bout ends inside the distance at a 54% clip. Still, I projected this bout closer to 67% for Saturday — even after averaging the implied betting line, and divisional baseline into my projected decision/knockout/submission splits — in this matchup — for either fighter.
Tim Elliott is 38 years old, coming off a near two-year layoff, in a division where the average age is 31, and fractional differences in speed have a more dramatic impact on fighter quality.
While Elliott is difficult to track down — due to his awkward movement — I'd expect Asakura to hurt him early — and potentially close the show quickly — in this fight. Asakura is seven years his junior, an inch taller, and carries both a three-inch reach advantage and significantly more power.
Still, he has shown a grappling vulnerability, and Elliott can take advantage on the mat — he's a proactive grappler (averages 5.9 takedown attempts per 5 minutes at distance), and could finish the fight via front choke (anaconda or brabo) if he can merely get Asakura into a scramble; never mind consolidating a takedown.
Bet the fight to end inside the distance or the Under 2.5 rounds, or consider structuring a violence ladder using the Under 1.5 (+215) as the first rung.
Additionally, consider betting Asakura by KO/TKO (projected +104, listed +180) or by Round 1 KO/TKO (+500) as opposed to his moneyline.
I show straight value on Elliott (projected +246, listed +275), given the grappling upside, but I prefer the more significant edge on the violence props.
Bets
Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-106, 0.75u) at BetRivers (bet to -180)
Kai Asakura wins by Round 1 KO/TKO (+500, 0.1u) at BetRivers (bet to +400)
Jared Cannonier — who used to compete at Heavyweight — should have a distinct power advantage over Michael Venom Page "MVP" — the longer and faster athlete (4" taller, 2" reach advantage) and the more dynamic striker.
Cannonier needs to win this matchup with physicality, by bullying MVP up against the fence or consolidating takedowns and landing ground and pound from top position.
Jared has excellent offensive cardio and typically has success landing strikes in bunches against opponents who are willing to stand in front of him (Marvin Vettori, Gregory Rodrigues, Kelvin Gastelum) while struggling with more evasive fighters (Israel Adesanya, Nassourdine Imavvov, Caio Borralho, Robert Whittaker).
MVP falls into the latter category, but he is a lesser defensive grappler than each of those fighters, and Cannonier faced the majority of that opposition in five-round contests instead of three, which should help him maintain a high pace at age 41.
While I do show a slight edge on MVP's moneyline (projected -209, listed -195), I might prefer a small stab at his decision prop (projected -115, listed +120).
Cannonier's durability has been waning, but it's seemingly a byproduct of exhaustion in the championship rounds of fights.
If you're worried about the cardio angle, note that Page in Round 3 or by decision (-125) at DraftKings is about the same price as an SGP with Page and Over 1.5 (-130); take the additional 2.5 minutes for five cents.
Bets
Michael Page wins by Decision (+120, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to -105)
SGP: Michael Page & Over 1.5 Rounds (-133, 0.25u) at ESPNBet (bet to -150)
I project a finish in the featured bout between Geoff Neal and Carlos Prates — setting the ITD line at -196, compared to listed odds nearer to -155; bet the finish prop up to -180, or take the Under 2.5 rounds to -150.
It's not a big bet for me — this matchup does have the potential for a cagey, technical kickboxing matchup — where both fighters are more durable than average and neither offers any real submission threat.
Still, both men are aggressive offensively when they open up, and either carries significant power.
Prates – a pressuring sniper – is the likelier finisher — 2" taller, with a 3" reach advantage — but he only defends strikes at a 48% clip from his Muay Thai stance.
Prates has yet to face a true southpaw at the UFC level, and I'd expect Neal to land heavy counters in this fight.
Bets
Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-150, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -180)
Aaron Pico will make his UFC debut on Saturday against Lerone Murphy, after multiple dates with Movsar Evloev fell through.
Murphy is unbeaten, but has as many split decision wins (2) as finishes in the UFC, and Pico is a talented wrestler who can expose his defensive grappling.
Pico — an Olympic alternate wrestler — has been training with Khamzat Chimaev and Arman Tsarukyan in the lead-up to this fight – and while Pico isn't always reliable to proactively grapple, I'd expect him to do so given the makeup of that camp- and comments he's made in interviews leading into the matchup.
Pico specifically mentioned staying active from top position with elbows. While he certainly wants to show off his striking – and significant power for the 145-pound division – he should look to wrestle Murphy (61% takedown defense) and land ground and pound.
Murphy has proven himself as a high-volume striker against more serious competition than Pico — who is coming off from Bellator in his prime, at age 28 — as opposed to a slightly older Patchy Mix (31), or the more senior Patricio Pitbull (37) MVP (36 when joined UFC) and Michael Chandler (35 when he signed).
A win on Saturday immediately inserts Pico into title contention at 145 pounds, as the promotion lacks American-born champions.
Moreover, Murphy is an extremely popular underdog selection this week — with fans picking him to win the fight on average 65% of the time, compared to underdog odds.
As a result, my model set Pico as a -233 favorite (70% implied) and I would bet him up to around -210. I filled part of my position, but may add more on fight day, depending upon line movement.
Moreover, I show value on his KO/TKO prop (projected +257, listed +400), which I'll use to juice up round-robin tickets.
For additional information on Saturday's main event and middleweight title bout, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out my full fight preview.
In short, while I don't see value on either side of the moneyline at current odds, I do project this bout to end inside the distance more than 85% of the time (-634 implied odds) and show actionable value on the Unders (Under 1.5, +145 and 2.5, -115), or the fight to end inside the distance (listed -350).
Moreover, I project an actionable edge on Chimaev to win by submission (projected +108, listed +150) or inside the distance (projected -168, listed -130), or you could combine those opinions into an SGP ladder, with Chimaev and the Under 1.5 Rounds (+195), Under 2.5 Rounds (+120), and/or 3.5 Rounds (-115). Alternatively, FanDuel offers a prop for Chimaev to win in Rounds 1, 2, or 3 at even money.
For optimal odds to express this opinion, consider betting Chimaev to win in Round 1 (+270) or Round 2 (+500) or to win by submission in Round 1 (+430) or Round 2 (+850).
Whether you bet on Khamzat pre-fight or not, target Du Plessis live after the first or second round of the fight.
But if you do prefer the champion, consider DDP in an SGP with the Over 2.5 (+340), and/or sprinkle his odds to win in Round 4 (+2200) or Round 5 (+2900).
Bets
SGP: Khamzat Chimaev & Under 1.5 Rounds (+195, 0.15u) at BallyBet (bet to +150)
SGP: Khamzat Chimaev & Under 2.5 Rounds (+120, 0.15u) at Caesars (bet to +110)
SGP: Khamzat Chimaev & Under 3.5 Rounds (-114, 0.25u) at ESPNBet (bet to -125)
Khamzat Chimaev wins by Round 1 Submission (+430, 0.1u) at FanDuel (bet to +400)
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.
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