Saturday UFC Fight Night Betting Picks & Predictions: Our Best Bets For Green vs. Patrick and Herman vs. Rodriguez (Sept. 12)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: Bobby Green during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX.
- Need a bet for Saturday's 12-bout UFC card? You've come to the right place.
- Our UFC crew has targeted one moneyline play and one parlay on tonight's slate.
- Read on for a complete breakdown on each of our favorite Saturday night UFC bets.
College football may rule the sports in the afternoon, but the UFC has a well-rounded card for Saturday night. Tonight's UFC Fight Night 12-bout card begins at 5 p.m. ET with six fights on the prelim slate and six fights on the main slate beginning at 8 p.m. ET.
Saturday's event is anchored by a women's strawweight matchup in the main event between No. 8-ranked Michelle Waterson and No. 13-ranked Angela Hill — the first Black American woman to headline a UFC card.
Our UFC crew has pinpointed two other fights on Saturday’s card that present the awesome betting value. You can find their analysis and picks on those matches below.
Don’t forget, you can now track your UFC bets in the Action Network App!
Sean Zerillo: Bobby Green vs. Alan Patrick
Betting Analyst, The Action Network
Bobby Green is my favorite parlay piece for Saturday's card, making his third appearance since June, and following wins over Clay Guida and Lando Vannata. Alan Patrick has not fought since October 2018, and fighters who return after a layoff of more than one year win less than 40% of the time in the UFC.
Patrick is a pretty one-dimensional grappler, and Green should be able to pick him apart on the feet (+3.34 significant strikes landed per minute) if he can keep the fight standing. Green's takedown defense against Guida (stuffed 9-of-12 attempts) was pretty stout, and I don't see Patrick posing a much more significant wrestling threat.
He could keep the fight close for a round, however – and if so I'll look for a live bet on Green, and his old-school boxing style, after Round 1:
I expect a relatively similar outcome, though with different skillsets, between Billy Quarantillo and Kyle Nelson. Nelson has big power, but he tends to gas out quickly, while Quarantillo picks up the pace in the middle and later parts of his fights.
Billy Q offers multiple paths to victory in this spot, so I'm not interested in his prop wagering, but Quarantillo could be useful in a small parlay and he's also worth a look in the live betting markets after Round 1.
The Pick: Parlay Bobby Green/Billy Quarantillo ML (-106, 0.5 Units)
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Note: I'll have more parlays using Green's moneyline. You can see those picks in my full card breakdown or follow my picks in the Action app.
Reed Wallach: Ed Herman vs. Mike Rodriguez
Contributor at The Action Network
Rodriguez is coming off a vicious knockout of Marcin Prachnio in August and is back in the octagon taking on light heavyweight veteran Ed Herman on short notice. Herman was scheduled to fight in August, but his fight got scrapped due to Covid-19 concerns. The fact that he has had a full camp to prepare for 15 minutes is part of the reason that I am siding with “Short Fuse.”
Herman is giving up some size in this matchup, more than 5 inches in reach and more than 2 inches in height, but what he lacks in size he makes up for with a solid chin and a clear cardio advantage. In 39 career fights, Herman has only been knocked out three times, and while nine of Rodriguez’s 11 wins have come by KO, none have come outside of the opening 5 minutes.
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My bet truly lies with Herman getting out of the first round, in which I may double down and live bet Herman at a better number. Rodriguez has three losses by decision (one of which was overturned), while Herman is more comfortable the longer the fight goes as he enters the 40th fight of his MMA career. I am backing the savvy veteran to withstand the early offense and pick up steam in Rounds 2 and 3.
Herman is not afraid to get messy in his fights, active in his takedown offense and getting this fight to the ground. While Rodriguez has two submission victories to his name, more than 50% of Herman’s wins have come by submission. There is a clear advantage for Herman once this gets to the mat, and I can see Herman’s steady output slowing Rodriguez down as the fight drags on.
Rodriguez knockout power does scare me going into this bet, but sitting at +195 at PointsBet, an implied probability of about 34%, I think that the value sides with Herman. I would bet this down to +165, and I see some serious value in Herman by decision at +400.
The Pick: Ed Herman moneyline (+195)
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