UFC Vegas 90 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Alexander Hernandez vs. Damon Jackson: Dip Into KO Market (Saturday, April 6)
Al Powers/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC featherweight Alexander Hernandez
Alexander Hernandez vs. Damon Jackson Odds
Here's our Alexander Hernandez vs. Damon Jackson pick for the UFC Vegas 90 co-main event on Saturday, April 6 – with our expert prediction.
Tonight's UFC co-headliner in Las Vegas features a planned featherweight showdown between Alexander Hernandez and Damon Jackson.
Despite bouncing between divisions in his last few fights, Hernandez appears intent on making a concerted effort to campaign at 145 pounds. However, after missing weight for this weekend's fight, the UFC may not give him a choice.
Entering UFC Vegas 90, Hernandez was 1-2 in the weight class when fighting in the UFC octagon, but the Factory X product has displayed some upward trends throughout his UFC tenure.
Standing in Hernandez's way is Jackson, who is a tried and true veteran of the game who is looking to snap a two-fight losing skid and get back to his winning ways.
Tale of the Tape
| Hernandez | Jackson | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-7 | 22-6-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:24 | 9:30 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 147.5 lbs. | 146 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 10/1/1992 | 8/8/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.6 | 3.0 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.90 | 3.46 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.20 | 2.44 |
| TD Acc | 31% | 34% |
| TD Def | 60% | 40% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 1.6 |
Considering that both men are deceptively well-rounded fighters, I could see this contest going in multiple directions.
Both men carry grappling bases in their back pocket, but Jackson is the more accoladed wrestler between the two.
An NAIA All-American wrestler who started fighting professionally straight out of college, Jackson has no qualms when it comes to initiating grappling entanglements.
Whether Jackson is looking for reactive shots in open space or trying for takedowns along the fence, the Fortis MMA product is dogged in his attempts and can chain his attacks when necessary.
Once Jackson can ground his opposition, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt is an aggressive grappler from topside and a strong opportunistic submission threat in transition.
Nevertheless, Hernandez – at least when he's fresh – has traditionally been a difficult fighter to control in closed quarters.
An accoladed high school wrestler and Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Hernandez has proven that he is capable of conducting himself accordingly when participating in the grappling grind that MMA fighters often encounter.
That said, Hernandez's aggression has gotten him both submitted and in sticky situations before, so I wouldn't be shocked to see him try and have a more disciplined fight here.
Since working with Marc Montoya and company, Hernandez has shown an uptick in his overall game – particularly when it comes to his striking.
Moving and flowing more like his Factory X stablemates, Hernandez strikes much more economically and on balance than before.
Hernandez's counter game has also gotten sharper, but he's still not beyond being taxed by counters himself and will need to respect what's coming back at him.
Not only has Jackson steadily improved his striking throughout the years, but the Texas native also has a knack for countering kicks with both strikes and takedowns alike.
Hernandez vs. Jackson Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the younger fighter, listing Hernandez -200 and Jackson +170 as of this writing.
Considering the age and trends of both fighters, I'm not surprised to see Hernandez as a 2-1 favorite in this spot.
Although Hernandez lost his last outing at featherweight to Bill Algeo, the 31-year-old displayed some solid upgrades to his striking, stamina and overall composure.
Add in another training camp at altitude in the books, and I suspect that Hernandez will have enough gas in the tank in case this fight goes long.
Despite having an unquestionable "dog in him," Jackson has traditionally been a do-or-die fighter who struggles to get to the final horn due to his inherent aggression and the emotions he fights with.
I don't blame anyone for taking a small stab at Jackson's moneyline (or for him to win in Rounds 2 or 3 and big plus numbers), but I believe that the violence will favor the Hernandez side of things.
Aside from Hernandez being the more potent knockout threat, Jackson has a propensity to eat a disproportionate amount of left hands.
Not only is Hernandez quietly competent with that side from both stances (as seen in his knockout of Beneil Dariush), but the small cage will likely encourage exchanges at a high clip.
Even though I don't hate incorporating the under as a potential hedge in this spot, I'll be dipping my toes on the Hernandez side by playing him to win by knockout at plus money.
The Pick: Alexander Hernandez by KO, TKO or DQ (+140 via bet365)
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