Bills vs. Jaguars Odds & Betting Predictions - January 11, 2026

Live bet after Allen TD/hurt his leg

Prop projections tool value Jags more likely to start w ball based off coin toss decision stats Bills allow +2.2 sche adj fantasy pts to RWR and he lines up more there than any other jags WR

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Bills were one of the worst teams this year ATS in 1H. Going to just lean into that trend and bet on Jaguars winning the 1H.

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Score

Rosa rushing yards

Good to -145

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Over in last 6 playoff games, avg 9.2 #ActionPlaybookLive

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This is the game I'm most excited for this weekend. I think it could be the AFC kingmaker. The Jaguars, not the Texans, are the hottest team in the league. Houston's winning streak is one game longer (nine versus eight), but Jacksonville rates as the much better team over the second half of the season. The Jaguars are No. 3 in DVOA with a top 10 offense, including top 5 passing, and the defense is even better — top five against both the run and the pass, and No. 3 overall. Buffalo is not hot at all, quite literally limping into the playoffs thanks to Josh Allen's foot injury. The Bills have no real receivers for Allen to throw to, and the defense is a big problem, fringe bottom 10 on the season. But Buffalo still has all that playoff experience and, of course, that super alien QB that can swing the entire playoffs if he gets hot. Buffalo's defense is the weak link on the field, especially the run defense. The question is whether Jacksonville's offense can take advantage of Buffalo's specific weaknesses. That's on Liam Coen's staff, and that young coaching staff has been brilliant and finding answers all season. Buffalo ranks bottom 10 against motion and under center plays by EPA, and Jacksonville ranks top 10 at both. The Jags are also up from bottom 10 in explosive plays offensively to top 10 over the back half of the season, while Buffalo's defense ranks bottom 10. Coen can expose Sean McDermott's defense, like many other teams have in past postseasons. But can the Jaguars run the ball? Jacksonville ranked top five in EPA per rush for the first half of the season as Coen worked his magic, just like he did in Tampa Bay last season, but that rushing attack has totally disappeared down the stretch to finish below league average. Buffalo ranks among the bottom three teams in the NFL in rushing defense by DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Coen needs to find ways to get Travis Etienne involved. The run game looks like the key both ways. Jacksonville's run defense has been awesome all season, yet to allow a single 75-yard runner. The defense has been far better against outside runs though, and Buffalo's run game is a power rushing attack and much better attacking on inside runs, ranking 2nd in EPA per play. If Buffalo can control the game by running through the middle and limiting Jacksonville's rushing attack, the Bills will win. But the truth is that the Jaguars have been the far better team over the back half of the season — definitely on defense and special teams, probably even on offense too. Buffalo is also mostly untested. The Bills have faced only one top-10 DVOA opponent all season, and that was Houston. This is probably Buffalo's toughest game all season. The Bills went only 1-3 against teams that entered last weekend with a playoff berth wrapped up, and they scored 12, 20, and 19 in three of those games and seven in the first half against the Patriots before finally playing one good half for their only marquee win of the season. These are not the Bills of the last few years. And even those Bills have struggled on the road for awhile now. Buffalo's offense was elite at home (2nd in DVOA) but closer to league average on the road (13th) this season, and Buffalo is just 14-12 SU on the road since 2023, despite being a clear Super Bowl contender all three seasons. Those aren't exactly marquee wins either. They've come against Patrick Mahomes, Drake Maye, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers (twice), Tua Tagovailoa (twice), Geno Smith, Joe Flacco, Justin Fields, Andy Dalton, Sam Howell, Easton Stick, and Shedeur Sanders. In fact, Josh Allen remains winless on the road in the postseason. He's 0-4 both straight up and ATS, and Buffalo has not won a road playoff game since 1993. The Jaguars have been awesome at home this season. Jacksonville ranked bottom 10 offensively on the road and league average on defense by DVOA but was a top-five home defense and fringe top-10 offense. The more I dug into things here, the more I liked Jacksonville — just so many coaching advantages and edges for the Jaguars — but I don't love betting coin flip spreads, especially in the playoffs, and especially against Josh Allen. We don't win any extra money for picking against Allen, you know. Instead, I'm going to get try to get my money by halftime and get out. The Jaguars are 11-6 ATS in the first half this season, second best in the NFL. The Bills were 5-12 ATS, tied for worst in the league with the lowly Saints, who did not win a single first quarter all season. Many of Jacksonville's metrics tell a similar story. The Jaguars offense is worse in the red zone, and it's also worse late in games. Coen sets the team up for success early, but Jacksonville's edge shrinks when it's just down to the talent on the field. The Jaguars have a top-five offense in the first quarter by DVOA but fall to bottom-five in the final quarter. Buffalo's first-half metrics have been terrible all season, especially in defense, but the Bills leap to top 10 by DVOA there after halftime. Let's lock in our best bet: Jaguars 1H +0.5 (-115, Caesars), preferable to a similarly priced moneyline since we can win a halftime tie. If you do like Jacksonville to win the game too, I think you have to be aggressive. I can see a world where the Jaguars are just the much better team and house the Bills, so maybe alts are in play. But if Jacksonville does win the battle of my top two AFC power rating teams, then they're a good investment to keep winning. I'll like Jacksonville in New England next week in a battle of team versus individual, and if that's not the matchup, then the Jags are at home again as the better team. I think Jacksonville has the right mix to make a surprise run all the way to the Super Bowl. I've got the Jags just under 20% to win the AFC, showing clear value on Jacksonville at +600 to win the AFC. I probably won't like the Jags in the Super Bowl so I'll bet that AFC ticket and then nibble a little on an exact Super Bowl outcome: Rams over Jaguars at +4000 (bet365). If you want a fun prop angle in this game, I like Josh Allen to lead the game in rushing yards at +950 (FanDuel). Allen averages 51.4 YPG in the playoffs on the ground, with 54 or more in over half his games. Jacksonville hasn't allowed a 75-yard runner and should limit James Cook some, and Etienne is unpredictable and often needs a long run to hit a high total. He averages just 55 YPG on the ground over the last 12 games. If Allen can push through the foot injury and give us some of us usual magic, that +950 could be juicy.

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Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

I was a bit surprised to see his prop this high here, as this is a number he’s only cleared in 4 of 16 games this season. Obviously, being in the playoffs changes the dynamic for a lot of prop markets, but when it comes to Allen, he’s probably going to be more willing to scramble and put his body on the line now that we’re in the playoffs, which would only limit his ceiling in this market. Plus, while we would normally expect a more likely trailing, pass-heavy game script in the playoffs, this game is basically a pick’em. The Bills are projected to play with the lead around 43% of the game (that’s the typical rate for a pick’em, not that I’m saying they’ll lead for exactly 43%). That’s also basically the exact rate they’ve led this season, so I’m not expecting their dropback rate to change much here. This sets up as a pretty typical game script for them. They’ve also dominated time of possession this season, ranking 1st at just over 33 minutes per game, but the Jaguars rank 5th in TOP themselves, so they could cut into the Bills’ overall play volume by keeping them on the sideline a bit more than usual. The Jaguars have used Cover 6 at a league-high rate this year and 23% of the time over the last 6 weeks. Allen has scrambled on 18% of his dropbacks against Cover 6 compared to just 8.1% against all other coverages. Anytime he scrambles, that takes away a potential pass att. Plus, this game is expected to have perfect weather, especially compared to most of the other games this weekend. We actually want Allen completing most of his passes here. Incomplete passes are brutal for this market and usually lead to a higher % chance they throw again on the next play or push the game into a more pass-heavy script. So Allen having great weather to complete passes, be efficient, and potentially throw downfield can actually help this stay under. I’m projecting him closer to 31.5 pass att with around a 61% chance to stay under 33.5.

Tailing @nick_giffen

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James Cook under 19.5 Rush Att (-120 at Bet365, 18.5 everywhere else (-127 at DK best)) Two major factors should impact Cook's rushing attempt prop in their Wild Card Round game against Jacksonville. First, Jacksonville possess the ball at a top-five rate, meaning there's less time overall for Buffalo to run plays. Buffalo has had a relatively fortunate schedule in the time-of-possession department, facing just four teams with a top-12 TOP. In those four games, Cook stayed under 18.5 three times. And in six total games against top-half time of possession teams, he stayed under 18.5 in four of six. Additionally, game script may not favor him here. Buffalo is favored by about a point, but this is essentially a coin-flip game by the betting odds, and by our schedule-adjusted Expected Scores I actually have Jacksonville favored. When Buffalo has had a second-half average win probability of 65% or less, Cook has stayed under 18.5 in six of eight games. In the other eight, Buffalo's average second-half win probability was always north of 80%. In those eight he cleared 18.5 in six of those games. Jacksonville is also a top-five run defense by DVOA, so Buffalo ideally would like to throw on them more as well to have better chances at moving the ball. With all three starting CBs questionable for Jacksonville, it could be even more imperative to throw on them. I'm projecting Cook for 17.9 carries with a 57% chance of staying under 18.5 if I'm using the current betting lines. But if I make this a pure coin flip, or even favor Jacksonville slightly, I'd have this at around 17.5 or even lower.

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Home dogs in WC Round 22-9-1 (71%) ATS all-time. #SundaySixPack

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Luck Under

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