Cowboys vs. Bears Odds & Betting Predictions - September 21, 2025

Projection: -131. For more, check out the Fantasy Life player projections.

Both defenses in this game have been abysmal so far. These teams rank first and second in most points allowed to wide receivers so far this season — and that's despite Dallas facing an Eagles offense in the opener that's basically allergic to passing! The Cowboys made up for lost time last week, allowing Malik Nabers and WanDale Robinson to combine for 309 yards on 17 catches, with both guys seeing at least eight receptions and double-digit targets. Even worse, Dallas's top corner DaRon Bland is out Sunday. Rome Odunze has looked like the guy in Chicago from the start of the preseason. He showed great chemistry with Caleb Williams throughout preseason action, and that's translated to the games so far. Odunze had six catches in the opener on nine targets, and he followed that up with seven catches on 11 targets. Compare that to Odunze's rookie season, where he topped seven targets only three times all season and where his high mark was six catches — his low this year! Odunze and D.J. Moore are still being priced at 4.5 receptions each at books, but it seems clear that Odunze is Chicago's WR1. Moore has only 11 targets total in two games for barely over 100 yards. And we know how valuable it is to be WR1 in Ben Johnson's offense. Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 6.9 receptions a game the last three years for Johnson. He was over 4.5 receptions in all but nine games across three seasons, with 6+ catches over three-fourths of the time and 8+ receptions over a third of the time. Odunze is not St. Brown yet, but he's proving why he was a top-10 draft pick and looking like a breakout star, so let's play the receptions escalator all the way up. I love Odunze to go over 4.5 receptions (-122, FanDuel), and I'll play the next three escalator levels too: 6+ at +165, 7+ at +320, and 8+ at +600 (bet365). Remember, both Giants receivers hit every one of those escalators last week!

Both defenses in this game have been abysmal so far. These teams rank first and second in most points allowed to wide receivers so far this season — and that's despite Dallas facing an Eagles offense in the opener that's basically allergic to passing! The Cowboys made up for lost time last week, allowing Malik Nabers and WanDale Robinson to combine for 309 yards on 17 catches, with both guys seeing at least eight receptions and double-digit targets. Even worse, Dallas's top corner DaRon Bland is out Sunday. Rome Odunze has looked like the guy in Chicago from the start of the preseason. He showed great chemistry with Caleb Williams throughout preseason action, and that's translated to the games so far. Odunze had six catches in the opener on nine targets, and he followed that up with seven catches on 11 targets. Compare that to Odunze's rookie season, where he topped seven targets only three times all season and where his high mark was six catches — his low this year! Odunze and D.J. Moore are still being priced at 4.5 receptions each at books, but it seems clear that Odunze is Chicago's WR1. Moore has only 11 targets total in two games for barely over 100 yards. And we know how valuable it is to be WR1 in Ben Johnson's offense. Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 6.9 receptions a game the last three years for Johnson. He was over 4.5 receptions in all but nine games across three seasons, with 6+ catches over three-fourths of the time and 8+ receptions over a third of the time. Odunze is not St. Brown yet, but he's proving why he was a top-10 draft pick and looking like a breakout star, so let's play the receptions escalator all the way up. I love Odunze to go over 4.5 receptions (-122, FanDuel), and I'll play the next three escalator levels too: 6+ at +165, 7+ at +320, and 8+ at +600 (bet365). Remember, both Giants receivers hit every one of those escalators last week!

Both defenses in this game have been abysmal so far. These teams rank first and second in most points allowed to wide receivers so far this season — and that's despite Dallas facing an Eagles offense in the opener that's basically allergic to passing! The Cowboys made up for lost time last week, allowing Malik Nabers and WanDale Robinson to combine for 309 yards on 17 catches, with both guys seeing at least eight receptions and double-digit targets. Even worse, Dallas's top corner DaRon Bland is out Sunday. Rome Odunze has looked like the guy in Chicago from the start of the preseason. He showed great chemistry with Caleb Williams throughout preseason action, and that's translated to the games so far. Odunze had six catches in the opener on nine targets, and he followed that up with seven catches on 11 targets. Compare that to Odunze's rookie season, where he topped seven targets only three times all season and where his high mark was six catches — his low this year! Odunze and D.J. Moore are still being priced at 4.5 receptions each at books, but it seems clear that Odunze is Chicago's WR1. Moore has only 11 targets total in two games for barely over 100 yards. And we know how valuable it is to be WR1 in Ben Johnson's offense. Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 6.9 receptions a game the last three years for Johnson. He was over 4.5 receptions in all but nine games across three seasons, with 6+ catches over three-fourths of the time and 8+ receptions over a third of the time. Odunze is not St. Brown yet, but he's proving why he was a top-10 draft pick and looking like a breakout star, so let's play the receptions escalator all the way up. I love Odunze to go over 4.5 receptions (-122, FanDuel), and I'll play the next three escalator levels too: 6+ at +165, 7+ at +320, and 8+ at +600 (bet365). Remember, both Giants receivers hit every one of those escalators last week!

Some of the other underdogs on my card may feel grosser, but this is the bet I feel grossest about after hyping the Bears all preseason and already losing on the Bears in both Weeks 1 and 2. This is not that. I have officially abandoned Bears Island. I'm not betting Chicago division or playoffs, not doubling down, no escalators. But that doesn't mean we can't still bet Chicago week-to-week in the right spot. I made sweeping downgrades to the Bears after last week's embarrassment. The run game takes a huge hit, since D'Andre Swift just can't do anything right now despite what seems to be decent blocking. I also downgraded the line and made huge drops at linebacker and corner, where Chicago just can't get healthy with Jaylon Johnson out and both Kyler Gordon and T.J. Edwards still question marks. Even after all that, I still make this Bears by over a field goal — and this is where it's helpful to remember what actually happened in those two Bears games so far, not just the endings. In its first game, Chicago was dominating, up 17-6 after three quarters, before everything fell apart in the final stanza. Against the Lions, Chicago hung tough and was down one score until a couple wonky plays just before halftime, then got demolished in the second half. Those endings matter, but so do the beginnings. Chicago picked up a bunch of mid-game injuries and saw Dennis Allen's defense fall apart both those games, and an inexperienced Bears team let go of the string. It was bad, but the team did do good work early! I'm not convinced the Cowboys defense is any better than Chicago's, and I still far prefer the Bears coaching staff with Ben Johnson by far my favorite new hire and Brian Schottenheimer by far my least favorite. We'll see who gets the best of the Matt Eberflus revenge spot too, with Chicago more than familiar with how to attack the new Dallas defensive coordinator's unit. That said, I still wouldn't be betting the Bears yet again here if this wasn't such a strong Kitchen Sink spot — my second best ranked one. Remember, 0-2 Kitchen Sink teams are 63% ATS in Week 3 since 2010. They're 70% ATS against 1-1 teams like Dallas and 68% as public sides like the Bears. This also hits my two very best Kitchen Sink trends. Teams that scored at least 17 each of their first two games like the Bears are 77% ATS, and teams coming off a loss of 20+ are 15-2 ATS (88%). This is what Week 3 is all about — disgusting bets that make you feel sick — and it's the ultimate buy low spot for a Bears team that got embarrassed by Ben Johnson's former squad last Sunday. In the end, just think of it as betting on an 0-2 home underdog against a road favorite that's simply not that great. Play Bears +1.5 or the best number available.

Bears got blasted last week, teams that lose by 29+ the prior week historically bounce back with a vengeance the following game. Plus, their opponent just played 5 quarters of football. One more point; the Bears the last 5 seasons have seen a boost of nearly 3ppg when at home vs on the road - that ranks top 10 in the NFL in terms of home field advantage.

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