49ers vs. Redskins Betting Odds & Picks: Can Jimmy G Cover This Spread?

49ers vs. Redskins Betting Odds & Picks: Can Jimmy G Cover This Spread? article feature image

Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jimmy Garoppolo

  • Jimmy Garoppolo and the undefeated San Francisco 49ers are 10-point favorites against the Washington Redskins.
  • Our experts break down the betting odds, make their picks and analyze every angle of this matchup.

49ers at Redskins Betting Odds & Picks

  • Odds: 49ers -10
  • Over/Under: 40.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

The 49ers have been the biggest surprise of the season with their dominant defense leading the way. Now they head to Washington D.C. to face a team in shambles and are one of just two double-digit favorites.

Bettors seem to be happy to lay the points with 81% of tickets backing the 49ers to cover, the highest ticket percentage for any team this week. Can the Redskins keep it close?

Our analysts break down every angle of this game, including Sean Koerner’s projected odds, key matchups, trends and a spread pick.

49ers-Redskins Injury Report

Which team is healthier? 49ers

Case Keenum (shoulder/foot) and Adrian Peterson (quad) both returned to full practice after sitting out on Wednesday. The Redskins could be without Chris Thompson, who is dealing with turf toe. Thompson hasn’t practiced since leaving last week’s game early. Josh Norman (thigh/hand) also hasn’t practiced this week, so his status will be something to monitor come Friday.

George Kittle (groin) returned to limited practice on Thursday after sitting out on Wednesday. Deebo Samuel (groin) could be in jeopardy of missing this game after he left last week’s game early and has yet to resume practicing.

Corner Ahkello Witherspoon (foot) also hasn’t practiced this week and rates as the 49ers’ second-best corner in coverage, so his potential absence could be good news for some of the Redskins’ pass-catchers. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Tevin Coleman & Matt Breida vs. Washington Run Defense

San Francisco brings one of the NFL’s most efficient rushing attacks to FedEx Field. Since returning from a high ankle sprain, Coleman was produced consecutive RB19 and RB16 PPR performances, while Breida was the overall RB4 in Week 5.

Tevin Coleman-Matt Breida
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida

Both backs benefit from a Niners offensive line that ranks second in adjusted line yards and fifth in team yards per carry, ranking behind only the Ravens in rushing yards per game.

Washington ranks 20th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and has allowed at least 4.1 yards per carry against every opponent this season. The last time the Redskins faced an opponent that even approaches the 49ers’ rushing efficiency, they allowed 6.3 yards per carry to the Cowboys (Week 2).

If Washington struggles to limit the San Francisco rushing attack, this game could get ugly. The Redskins’ pass defense has struggled to generate pressure while allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

With a league-high 56% run rate, the 49ers will likely skew run heavy and attack the biggest mismatch against the Washington defense. — Mike Randle

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: 49ers -11.5
  • Projected Total: 40.5

This under is popping as it’s -0.43 Pass/Run Funnel Model rating gets an in-sample 68.9% probability of hitting. This makes sense as the 49ers should be able to use their shutdown defense and efficient running game to bury the Redskins with ease.

Terry McLaurin looks like the real deal as he’s erupted in his rookie season. The problem is that he’s really this offense’s only weapon. San Francisco will be able to get away with double-teaming him since no other pass catcher will make them pay. Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

The 49ers are one of two undefeated teams. The Redskins have one win.

The Niner’s success on the field has been great for bettors as they’re the second-most profitable team this season with a 4-1 against the spread. Washington hasn’t been as kind to gamblers going 1-5 ATS.

But ATS records tend to regress to the mean over the course of a season as bookmakers adjust to team performance and public perception. As a result, it’s been profitable to bet teams that have bad ATS records against opponents with winning ATS records.

Following this simple Pro System, bettors have gone 165-103-9 (61.6%) ATS since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,289 following this strategy.

The Redskins are double-digit underdogs at home and aren’t expected to win. But history suggests they’re a good bet to cover. John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

Expert Picks

Matthew Freedman: Niners -10

I snap bet this on Sunday night at -9.5 knowing it would almost certainly get to the key number of -10. Although I like the -9.5 way better, I’m still willing to bet it at -10.

On defense, the 49ers should be able to shut down the Redskins. In the passing game, the Redskins offense ranks 27th with 4.8 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) while the 49ers defense is No. 2 with a 3.2 ANY/A.

As bad as the Redskins have been, the 49ers have made far better teams look worse than the Redskins when passing. That’s impressive.

In the running game, the Redskins are No. 30 with a 40% success rate. When rushing, they struggle to pick up the yardage necessary to sustain drives — and under interim head coach Bill Callahan, the Redskins actually want to be a run-heavy team.

Defensively, the 49ers are No. 12 with a 46% rushing success rate allowed. The 49ers don’t have an elite run unit, but it is above average, and against one of the league’s worst rushing offenses, it should be good enough. On offense, the 49ers should continue to roll, even without offensive tackles Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey.

The 49ers are actually last in the league with a 44.0% pass-play rate. But when quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo drops back, I don’t expect him to face overwhelming pressure, as the Redskins have a middle-of-the-road 25.8% pressure rate.

In fact, they’re No. 30 with a 55% passing success rate allowed while the 49ers are No. 6 with a 50% success rate. I especially like the matchup for George Kittle: The Redskins are No. 26 in pass defense DVOA against the position. Not that there’s ever much of a reason to doubt Kittle, but he could be especially productive this week.

It’s unfortunate that the 49ers are without fullback Kyle Juszczyk, who is one of the best lead-blocking backs in the league. But even without him, I expect the 49ers will continue to rely on the run, especially if they get a lead.

Will the Redskins be able to stop the 49ers running game? I’m guessing not. They’re No. 27 with a 54% rushing success rate allowed.

With a double-digit spread anything can happen, especially with a road dog. But I have so little respect for the Redskins — who have a per-game differential of -12.8 points — that it’s hard for me not to bet against them with an opponent I consider to be vastly superior.

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