Monday Night Football Best Bets, Picks for Broncos vs Bills
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Denver and Buffalo cap NFL Week 10 with a MNF game at Highmark Stadium, and we have Monday Night Football Best Bets, Picks for Broncos vs Bills. Broncos vs Bills odds have Buffalo installed as 7.5-point favorites on the spread with an over/under of 47.5.
We have one NFL betting analyst who’s on the underdog Broncos to cover the spread, plus player prop picks for Josh Allen and Khalil Shakir, and even a same game parlay. Continue reading for our Broncos vs Bills picks and best bets for Monday Night Football.
Monday Night Football Best Bets, Picks for Broncos vs Bills
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting for Monday Night Football. Click on the team logos or a specific bet to navigate this post.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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By Simon Hunter
Why is this number so big? This isn’t 2022. The Bills defense has had a season from hell when it comes to injuries. This team used to blow out teams because it had a great offense and above-average defense. Those days are gone. The Bills can only overcome so many injuries after paying Josh Allen all that money.
You can get Buffalo at -110 right now to make the playoffs. At the start of Week 10, the Bills were on the outside looking in sitting eighth in the AFC standings.
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Denver's defense has somehow improved every week this season since giving up 70 points to the Dolphins. I get it, you’re only going to get better after giving up 70, but stay with me.
The Broncos gave up 19, 17 and then nine before heading into their bye week. Is this now a top-five defense? Hell no, but it can get stops and lock teams down in the red zone. It looks like getting rid of players has made this group closer.
Denver's offense has never been the problem this season. Clearly, Russell Wilson is older and can no longer be the player we all knew in Seattle, but he still can make plays in Sean Payton's offense.
This number should be below 6. Don’t be scared away because the +7.5 is gone. I’d still take this number down to +6.
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Khalil Shakir has been much more involved in the Bills passing attack since the injury to tight end Dawson Knox. Shakir has had a route participation percentage of above 70% in each of the last two games, and he has reached the 40-snap threshold in both games, as well.
Shakir has also shown solid chemistry with Josh Allen and often finds himself in winnable matchups against opposing defenses. In fact, Shakir had registered a 100% catch rate over the last three weeks since his role has increased.
The Broncos struggle badly to defend receivers who are not the main focus of their defense. Denver is 32nd in DVOA against opposing teams' WR2s and 31st in DVOA against WR3s. This number has not adjusted enough for Shakir's new role as the Bills slot receiver and the matchup against a vulnerable defense.
Shakir is averaging 11.8 yards per target this season, so it may only take four or five targets for him to cash this over. I'd bet this up to 37.5.
It's getting to that time of year when the wind is going to be a factor in Buffalo.
The current forecast projects 10-15 mph winds with gusts up to 30 mph. While that's not a massive number, it will affect Josh Allen's ability to throw.
Allen and the Buffalo offense hasn’t been the same this season and have yet to click outside of one game against Miami. Allen may be averaging around this number on the season, but he's only hit the over in 3-of-9 games.
Additionally, the Broncos defense is one that's easier to attack on the ground. They’ve also been much better overall in recent weeks, giving up no more than 24 points in their last three games – and two of those were against Kansas City.
I would hit this number all the way down to 265.5.
Pick: Josh Allen Under 279.5 Passing Yards (-110)
By Billy Ward
Generally in games with wider lines, we expect there to be more points scored in the first half. That's because the better (usually favored) team is likely to slow the pace down once they build a comfortable lead, leaning more heavily on the run and bleeding clock.
Monday Night Football is no different, with the Bills seven-point favorites at home. They should have no problem scoring early against the Broncos, who have the league's worst pass defense by DVOA. While Denver also has one of the worst rushing defenses, running the ball is slower and less efficient overall, and less of a strength for the Buffalo attack.
On the other side of the ball, Denver has been better offensively when running, which they may not have the opportunity to do late in the game. Buffalo ranks 30th in yards allowed per rush on the season, so Denver should have a better shot at scoring when the scoreboard allows them to lean more heavily on the rushing attack.
Additionally, I have this one projected to play slower than average if the game stays close or with the Bills in the lead. The only scenario that would speed things up is the Broncos leading — the spread suggests we're unlikely to see much of that in the second half.
All things considered, there's plenty of signs pointing in the same direction for this one. The -120 line at FanDuel is closer to what I'd make the line so -105 at DraftKings is good value.
Highest Scoring Half: 1st (-105)
The Bills have struggled against opposing WR1s, and at this point, it's clear that Sutton is Wilson's go-to guy. Buffalo ranks 30th by DVOA against WR1s and has already allowed four opposing WR1s to find paydirt this season.
Sutton has already tied his career high with six touchdowns. He's scored a TD in six of eight games, and the Bills pass defense has taken a big hit without Tre'Davious White or Matt Milano. This game is one of the highest totals on the slate, so there will be points. Sutton has been Denver's best avenue to points.
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For Buffalo, something is definitely off. Denver's defense has been quietly improving in recent weeks and has seven interceptions already this season, making this a potentially tricky matchup.
Buffalo's offensive metrics remain strong but Allen still puts one up for grabs a couple times per game. He's thrown an interception in five straight games and now seven of nine on the season (78%). Compare that to under 59% implied at -142 and there's definitely value. Denver should have a couple chances.
I can't shake the feeling that Denver's going to be frisky in this game and push Buffalo all the way. If the Broncos do hang around, they're probably gonna have to force a turnover or two and find the end zone a few times. I'll sprinkle both angles together as an SGP at long odds.
Be sure to shop around since Sutton's odds vary wildly. Grab him at +250 at bet365 or +240 at Caesars if you can, an implied 29% to score. He's as short as +150 (implied 40%) at some books.
Click here for the latest Broncos vs. Bills Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds.
SGP: Courtland Sutton Anytime TD & Josh Allen INT (+485, Caesars)
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