Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total, or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown props for Week 13 on Sunday, November 30.
Last season, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4%), with +44.1 units in profit for an 11% ROI.
If you plan to tail these Week 13 TD bets, please use proper bankroll management. For players listed as “Verdict,” those are 1-unit bets. If a player is listed in “Verdict” as a “Sprinkle,” then it would be a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long shots.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of NFL Week 13.
NFL Week 13 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
| Picks |
|---|
| Texans vs Colts |
| Cardinals vs Buccaneers |
| Jaguars vs Titans |
| Rams vs Panthers |
| Saints vs Dolphins |
| Falcons vs Jets |
| 49ers vs Browns |
| Vikings vs Seahawks |
| Raiders vs Chargers |
| Bills vs Steelers |
Texans vs. Colts
If I’m ever playing TD props and it’s against the Texans, my rule of thumb is if you bet a WR, the odds better be worth it!
The Texans defense might be the best in the NFL — it starts with defensive line pressure and suffocating coverage from the cornerbacks. There’s a reason they rank No.1 in defensive DVOA vs. the pass with only 10 passing TDs allowed.
That’s why you can get WR1 Michael Pittman at +250 or better, which still isn’t enough value for me — but I’m intrigued by TE Tyler Warren instead at +230.
Warren has usually been priced around +130 for a TD since his first score back in Week 4 vs. the Rams, which was a rushing TD. He went on to score in three consecutive games after that and leads the team in red-zone targets.
He hasn’t scored in a few games so his TD odds are starting to creep back up over +200, which means we’re getting a positive regression candidate, facing a pass-funnel defense, who also gets goal-line carries. Sign me up!
Speaking of pass funnels, the Colts have arrived!
With CB Sauce Gardner in the mix, along with the return of CB Charvarius Ward, I want nothing to do with Texans WRs.
If I had to choose one, it might be WR Jayden Higgins — but at this stage, let’s run back TE Dalton Schultz. He only has one touchdown this year, but the targets are there and he runs the second-most routes on the team behind WR1 Nico Collins, who I expect to see a lot of Sauce this week.
Schultz isn’t quite a “Cardio King” because he’s getting targets, but the Texans' pass game has struggled for most of the season so when they get to the red zone, it’s likely two rush attempts and maybe a red-zone look to Collins.
This time, let’s bet that QB C.J. Stroud looks elsewhere to Schultz.
VERDICT: Tyler Warren +225 | Dalton Schultz +250
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Cardinals vs. Buccaneers
I wrote this for WR Greg Dortch last week and figure it’s worth repurposing since he has similar odds and facing a defense with similar traits like the Jaguars in Week 12:
"I know with Jacoby Brissett at QB, the first and second read for him is TE Trey McBride. I love McBride and think he’s a top-three TE in the NFL, but now that he's gone nuclear with Brissett, we’re not seeing +200 TD odds anymore and closer to +105. That’s why I’m going back to WR Greg Dortch here because he saw a season-high in snaps and routes run in Week 11 with WR Marvin Harrison Jr. out and caught a TD. With him also being the kick-returner, he could find another way to the end zone as well, so at anything over +300, that’s who I’d go with.”
Dortch ended up topping his Week 11 performance in Week 12 with more season highs in targets (9) and snaps played (63%) while also scoring a touchdown. Brissett is giving new live to the Cardinals' passing game so I want to continue to take advantage before this dries up.
Another receiver similar to Dortch in stature and role with his team, Bucs WR Tez Johnson is who we keep targeting in this offense.
Johnson scored last week against the Rams for his fifth TD of the season; since WR Mike Evans got hurt, Johnson is tied for the team lead (with WR Emeka Egbuka) with seven red-zone targets and 80% route participation.
Part of the reason why we’re still getting +400 or better is the status of QB Baker Mayfield. It would obviously be a huge downgrade for the Bucs to start QB Teddy Bridgewater — maybe Johnson could still score, but the offensive upside for him and the whole Buccaneers offense hinges on Mayfield.
If Bridgewater is starting, I’ll likely pass on Bucs TD scorers — but if it’s a full-go for Mayfield, fire up the cannons!
VERDICT: Greg Dortch +420 | Tez Johnson +425 (If Baker Mayfield plays)
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Jaguars vs. Titans
The Titans may as well be trailing before the game even starts. They’ve had a lead for less than a quarter of their time of possession this season, which means they end up throwing a lot.
QB Cam Ward is sixth amongst all NFL quarterbacks in total pass attempts with the lowest yards per attempt. In my humble opinion, the only way you really want to bet on Titans TD scorers is short-range receivers or tight ends … that said, I think RB2 Tyjae Spears is who we want to target.
Spears has seen five targets in each of the last two games and has 22 targets overall in seven games, outpacing RB1 Tony Pollard, who has 27 targets but in 11 games.
Spears also has a higher targets per route run (TPRR) than starting WR Elic Ayomanor or WR Chimere Dike. Given the high chance of the the Titans in a trailing game script again and Ward’s tendency to keep his passes shorter, I like the short-range, pass-catching RB to score his second TD of the season.
I was high on WR Jakobi Meyers the past two weeks because I felt the Jaguars were going to put an emphasis on getting him the ball. Well, he scored last week but the WR that kept grabbing my attention was Parker Washington. He continues to carve out a role in this offense, no matter the status of WR Brian Thomas Jr.
Washington has two kick-return touchdowns this year to go with his three receiving TDs and has clearly made WR Dyami Brown an afterthought in this offense.
With Washington leading the team in red-zone targets, end-zone targets and TPRR, I can’t pass on him at +320.
VERDICT: Parker Washington +320 | Tyjae Spears +350
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Rams vs. Panthers
When it comes to Rams TEs, I think they've finally figured out who their option is: Colby Parkinson.
I’ve tried betting other Rams TE this season — like Davis Allen or Terrance Ferguson — but outside of the one time I cashed on Tyler Higbee in Week 10 vs the Saints, it’s been hit or miss.
Well, if ya can’t beat em, join em. Parkinson has been on fire with a TD in three straight games and, at +450, the market may not have caught up to how much he’s being targeted in the red zone.
After Week 12, Parkinson is second on the team with 10 red-zone targets — a distant second to WR Davante Adams but it’s encouraging that it’s higher than WR Puka Nacua or TE Davis Allen.
I love WR Tetairoa McMillan, but there’s no way he should be nearly triple the odds each week to score a touchdown. I’m talking about WR Xavier Legette. He’s got three TDs this year and already has nine end-zone targets — the same as McMillan.
The only difference is McMillan caught his ball last week and Legette didn’t. Is that really worth that much of a price difference? I get that McMillan nearly doubles him in first-read target share, but I fully expect the Rams to shade the secondary to the rookie as they use zone defense at a top-10 rate and are expected to get CB Ahkello Witherspoon back for this game.
In another potential trailing gamescript for the Panthers with more passing frequency, give me the WR that runs the second-most routes on the team and has the higher target rate against zone defense than man defense.
VERDICT: Xavier Legette +450 | Colby Parkinson +450
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Saints vs. Dolphins
The last time we saw the Dolphins, it might have been one of the most pitiful performances of the NFL season. The passing game has kind of dropped off a cliff for the Dolphins. RB Devon Achane and WR Jaylen Waddle have their TD odds steamed so you need to look elsewhere.
The problem is nothing is really inspiring on the Dolphins side. You could consider WR Malik Washington, but I would need at +300 odds or better.
With Tyler Shough at QB, the passing upside for the Saints could be the angle to target since the Dolphins' pass defense ranks 30th in defensive DVOA against the pass with 18 passing TDs allowed.
The player we should be looking at is TE Juwan Johnson at +320. The Dolphins have allowed seven TDs to TE this season while ranking in the bottom 10 in defensive DVOA against the position.
VERDICT: Juwan Johnson +320 | Pass on Dolphins
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Falcons vs. Jets
It’s tough times trying to pick Jets TD scorers, but let’s keep running it back with WR Adonai Mitchell.
The Jets are clearly trying to get Michell in space as he’s led the team in targets in each of the last two games and will continue to have a semi-competent QB in Tyrod Taylor.
The Falcons play a lot of zone and the most single-high safety in the NFL — that’s good for Mitchell, who leads the Jets in TPRR vs single high and also vs zone.
For what it’s worth, the last time he was close to scoring a TD was against the Rams before he dropped it in the end zone. The connection? The Rams, like the Falcons, also have a similar defense that plays a lot of zone and single-high coverage.
With Kirk Cousins at quarterback, we know the Falcons will push the ball downfield, it’s just a matter of whether Cousins can be accurate enough and not throw interceptions. If he can limit those, then we ride with TE Kyle Pitts at +260.
It’s pretty frustrating overall to wager on Pitts, whether that be overs, unders or TD props. Still, he technically has the best matchup as the Jets play man coverage at a top-five rate and are 29th in defensive DVOA vs TEs.
It’s pretty loose reasoning, but unless you want to bet on RB2 Tyler Allgeier at +190 to vulture a TD, it’s either Pitts Or Pass with the Falcons.
VERDICT: Adonai Mitchell +750 | Kyle Pitts +230
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49ers vs. Browns
I’ve hit on a Jauan Jennings TD in three of the last four weeks — I don’t intend to stop betting him now.
Jennings leads the 49ers in red-zone targets, end-zone targets; he's led the team in overall targets in four of the last six games. I get the Browns are a tougher matchup and QB Brock Purdy has been dealing with some turnover issues, but this is still a great spot for Jennings.
The Browns play man coverage at the fourth-highest rate and use single-high safety at the second-highest rate. This bodes well for Jennings, who leads the Niners by a mile in target share against those coverages.
I know we just watched QB Shedeur Sanders have a decent outing against the Raiders, but the Niners, even if decimated, have a much better defense. I think the TDs might mostly come on the ground for Cleveland, but if Sanders is asked to throw, I expect him to target TE Harold Fannin Jr.
Fannin played a season-high 90% of snaps last week and led the Browns with six targets while running double the routes of TE David Njoku. With the Niners ranking bottom 10 in targets, catches and yards to TE this season, I think Fannin could get the score today.
VERDICT: Jauan Jennings +320 | Harold Fannin Jr. +470
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Vikings vs. Seahawks
The trepidation of betting Vikings TD scorers with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback is more than justified — but he’s out for this game and it couldn’t possibly be worse with Max Brosmer. The rookie is getting his first start — most of what we saw in college was he was able to have some success throwing the ball downfield, so I think we have to keep playing Vikings WR.
The Seahawks rank fourth in defensive DVOA vs. the pass, but we’re seeing some insane prices for Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. The Vikings tried to scheme up some plays for Jettas, and while he led the team in target share and first-read percentage, he was limited to just six targets in Week 12.
Addison, on the other hand, didn’t see many targets last week but he’s always a threat to score with his deep-ball ability. The TD market is about as low as it’s ever gotten for Jefferson and Addison, so this a buy low on top-level WRs that should be closer to +200 and +300, respectively.
We bet on AJ Barner last week because he had a decent matchup against the Titans. Well, unless your name was Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks pass-catchers didn’t see many targets. I think the Vikings can offer a bit more pushback than what we saw from the Titans in the first half.
JSN will be the focal point of the passing game, but Barner is easily the No. 2 with eight red-zone targets and five touchdowns. One of those was a “tush push” vs. the Commanders with Seattle using him in those formations for short-yardage gains. Since he has receiving and rushing upside, the spot looks great for Barner to get his sixth TD.
VERDICT: Justin Jefferson +270 | Jordan Addison +425 | AJ Barner +250
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Bills vs. Steelers
The Bills offense can be tricky for TD scorers because they have a quarterback like Josh Allen, who can can either air it our or use his legs. I think the latter is likely to occur against the Steelers — at plus-odds, this is the time we want to grab his TD prop.
Off three previous losses this year, we’ve seen Allen’s scramble rate take a huge jump as it seems the sense of urgency kicks in for the reigning NFL MVP. After the loss to the Falcons, he scored twice. After the loss to the Dolphins, he scored three times vs the Bucs.
Another factor to consider is the Steelers tend to play a lot of man coverage and single-high safety, which is why certain quarterbacks like Justin Fields and Daniel Jones, guys who can run between the tackles, can find success with their legs.
If the odds on Allen aren’t sexy enough, the best Bills WR this year vs. man and single-high has been Khalil Shakir, who leads the team in total routes run and red-zone targets.
We bet on DK Metcalf last week. While it wasn’t how we drew it up (he scored on a six-yard rush), it was part of the idea that we knew the Steelers were going to find ways to get Metcalf involved.
Metcalf leads the team with nine end-zone targets compared to the next Steeler with three, and the Bills' pass defense isn’t formidable enough to be worried about CB matchups or defensive scheme. Metcalf will get his targets and at +200, I’m willing to invest.
VERDICT: Josh Allen +130 | DK Metcalf +200
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Raiders vs. Chargers
When you’re betting Chargers TD props, sometimes the logic is to find the player who has the longest odds and see if it matches up with the defense they are facing.
The Raiders play the most zone defense in the NFL — that means WR Keenan Allen is up. He leads the Chargers in TPRR vs. zone defense this season while also leading the Chargers with two TDs.
Coming off the bye, I expect the Chargers' passing game to get back on track and, for what it’s worth, Allen scored on the Raiders when they played in Week 2. At +280, this is the spot for Allen.
The Raiders are a mess at nearly every level, but I’m definitely running TE Brock Bowers back this week at +210. He leads the Raiders with seven end-zone targets in just eight games, and TE2 Michael Mayer may be out with an ankle injury.
The Chargers play zone at the fourth-highest rate while also playing the second-highest rate of two-high safety. This checks the box for Bowers, who leads the Raiders in TPRR vs. both zone and two-high safety.
Another factor I’ve considered is how well the Chargers are at defending the deep ball as they rank first in defensive DVOA vs. deep targets. This means I want pass-catchers with shorter aDOTs who are likely to catch quick passes, which is better for someone like Bowers.
With him not being healthy in the Week 2 matchup, this is a good bounce-back spot for Bowers, who might see 12+ targets.
VERDICT: Keenan Allen +280 | Brock Bowers +200
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