Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total, or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown props for Week 9 on Sunday, November 2.
Last season, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4%), with +44.1 units in profit for an 11% ROI.
If you plan to tail these Week 9 TD bets, please use proper bankroll management. For players listed as “Verdict,” those are 1-unit bets. If a player is listed in “Verdict” as a “Sprinkle,” then it would be a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long shots.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of NFL Week 9.
NFL Week 9 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
| Picks |
|---|
| Bears vs Bengals |
| 49ers vs Giants |
| Falcons vs Patriots |
| Colts vs Steelers |
| Panthers vs Packers |
| Vikings vs Lions |
| Broncos vs Texans |
| Chargers vs Titans |
| Jaguars vs Raiders |
| Saints vs Rams |
| Chiefs vs Bills |
Bears vs. Bengals
The fun part about this game is both offenses offer decent upside for touchdown props, but neither defense is scary enough where you can easily talk yourself off of it.
The only issue with this game is both teams have legit options at the top, and are steamed mightily to make it difficult to invest in the likes of WR Rome Odunze (+120) or WR Tee Higgins (+150).
Instead, let’s just take the WR3 for each team in this spot, and that’s Bears WR Olamide Zaccheaus +400 and Bengals WR Andrei Iosivas.
Neither have scored a TD yet this season, but combined to score nine last season.
Zaccheaus is coming off a season-high seven targets in Week 8 against the Ravens and leads the team in red-zone targets with six.
He just hasn’t been featured much once the Bears get past the 10-yard line, but facing the Bengals pass defense that should be heavily focused on Odunze and WR DJ Moore, I like Zaccheaus to get his first score of the season.
Especially since they’ve allowed the second-most receiving TDs this season (19).
I kind of feel bad for Iosivas because he’s the “Cardio King” in this offense, but I think with QB Joe Flacco, all Bengals' pass-catchers should get a bump in the projections for more upside than with Jake Browning.
Iosivas has seen 11 targets over the last three games with Flacco, which doesn’t seem like a lot, but it's more than he saw in the previous five games with Browning and Burrow.
He scored six TDs last year, and I know we typically bet Yoshi TD when Higgins or Ja’Marr Chase miss time, but it’s worth noting that of his 10 career touchdowns, six were caught when all three were in the lineup.
Verdict: Olamide Zaccheaus +400 | Andrei Iosivas +550
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49ers vs. Giants
I'm still unsure if 49ers QB Brock Purdy or QB Mac Jones will start against the Giants, but frankly, I don’t think it will matter.
The data this season has shown that Jones hasn’t been much of a drop-off and will allow the Niners offense to move.
Naturally, RB Christian McCaffery should have a bounce-back game since run defense has been the Giants' weakness, but I’d rather pivot to WR Jauan Jennings in this spot at +190.
He has only scored one touchdown this season, as he’s been dealing with multiple injuries, but seems to be fully healthy now with full practices on Wednesday and Thursday while running the most routes of any Niners pass-catcher over the last three games and having the highest targets per route run.
The 49ers defense has been battered this season, which means they give up more points as the season goes on, which ultimately means the offense can’t just rely on the run in this spot.
Speaking of the 49ers defense, the pass defense just allowed two touchdowns to WRs last week, and have now allowed 14 passing TDs overall.
The initial instinct is to look at wide receivers, but with RB Cam Skattebo out for the season, this means RB Devin Singletary could be in line for more work.
He’ll be the backup to RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., and part of the reason why I want Singletary is I expect him to be the third down/ pass-catching back in this offense, and the 49ers have allowed the third-most targets, catches, and TDs to running backs this year.
Tracy is already at minus-odds to score. So, I’d rather take his backup in this spot.
Verdict: Jauan Jennings +190 | Devin Singletary +400
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Falcons vs. Patriots
Betting on Falcons TD scorers this season hasn’t been that fun this season.
The expecations for QB Michael Penix Jr. has made the odds a bit steamed for top guys like WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts, so much so that I’d rather just go unconventional and take RB2 Tyler Allgeier at +280.
Ever since the Falcons drafted RB Bijan Robinson, they just can’t quit Allgeier.
Allgeier's gotten the same amount of red-zone carries as Robinson (14); Allgeier has 10 carries inside the 10-yard line compared to just four for Robinson.
This is reminiscent of what we saw in 2023. But in 2024, it seemed like Robinson took the torch.
If they are in a shared backfield situation again, I’m just going to take the RB with longer odds, especially since Allgeier has scored a touchdown in four of seven games.
I’m going back to Drake Maye again to score a TD.
The quarterback just has way too many scramble opportunities to pass on him. Maye is third amongst all starting quarterbacks in rush yards, second in total scrambles and sixth in red-zone rushing attempts.
Part of the reason why I think he may need to use his legs a bit more is the Falcons secondary is eighth in defensive DVOA against the pass and second against the deep ball, which has been Maye’s specialty this season.
If the deep pass is neutralized, and the Falcons continue to be strong in coverage, I think the QB could take off near the goal line.
Verdict: Drake Maye +350 | Tyler Allgeier +280
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Colts vs. Steelers
The Colts offense has been unreal this season.
While I fully expect RB Jonathan Taylor to get the majority of touches running the ball, I still can’t ignore quarterback Daniel Jones at +320.
The Steelers have only allowed five rushing TDs this season, but two of those were to quarterbacks, both in Week 1 to Justin Fields.
Part of the reason why he had success running the ball on them is because the Steelers still love to play a lot of man coverage, which opens up running lanes for Jones.
I think the Steelers will sell out to stop Taylor considering he's scored six TDs in the last two games, which could let him act as a decoy for Jones to scramble in.
I’m still a fan of Calvin Austin III in the Steelers offense.
He saw six targets in his return last week, and he played the second-most snaps of any Steelers WR outside of DK Metcalf.
The Steelers will likely need to throw a bit more in this matchup as home 'dogs, which lends itself well to Austin getting back in the end zone against a Colts defense that has allowed 14 passing TDs (nine to WRs).
Add in the fact that he’s the Steelers punt returner and there’s a decent chance for Austin to have an explosive play and potentially score a TD.
Verdict: Calvin Austin +375 | Daniel Jones +350
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Panthers vs. Packers
This game sets up well for Packers RB Josh Jacobs to have a huge statline.
Jacobs has scored nine TDs this season, with 2+ TDs scored in three of his last four games.
I know the Panthers run defense got some praise earlier in the year, but they’ve still had multiple games this season where they’ve given up multiple rushing touchdowns, like last week where RB James Cook and QB Josh Allen ran for two scores apiece.
Look for the Packers to lean on Jacobs heavily in this matchup where some poor weather might be expected.
I initially wanted to place another bet on WR2 Xavier Legette for the Panthers, but he missed two practices this week and may not get as many routes after dealing with an illness.
Now, I think it's just best we go to WR1 Tetairoa McMillan at +280.
He’s got the size to deal with the Packers cornerbacks, leads the team in end zone targets, and QB Bryce Young is expected back, which should be an upgrade over QB Andy Dalton.
Verdict: Tet McMillan +220 | Josh Jacobs 2+ TDs +480
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Vikings vs. Lions
Arguably the game of the week, I’m just riding with my two favorites from each team in Lions WR Jameson Williams and WR Jordan Addison +250.
Not only are they in the sweet spot for TD odds (+200 or better), but playing at Detroit means an open runway for both of these guys to get behind the defense and beat them with deep passes, as both Williams and Addison lead their teams in aDOT and deep targets.
The Lions play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL, and while I’m not high on QB J.J. McCarthy, it has to be better than what we saw QB Carson Wentz put up over the last few games.
Addison may not be a safety blanket, but I trust McCarthy to find him in the end zone, especially since we’ve seen Addison score twice in four games since returning from suspension.
As for Williams, he hasn’t really gotten it going yet this season with only two touchdowns, but I like his chances today because he’s facing the Vikings, who play a ton of zone and blitz at the highest rate in the NFL.
Williams has scored both of his TDs this season against zone, and QB Jared Goff has been impeccable against the blitz this season with five passing TDs, no interceptions and a 75% completion rate.
There’s also the upside of a jet sweep or rushing TD from Williams as he’s scored three rushing TDs over the last two seasons.
Verdict: Jameson Williams +210 | Jordan Addison +250
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Broncos vs. Texans
For Broncos games, unless there isn't a clear massive edge with a specific starter, just go with a long shot.
We’ve seen backup TEs like Nate Adkins and Adam Trautman both score at +1000 or longer, while rookie WR Pat Bryant scored in Week 8 at +1100.
Broncos head coach Sean Payton loves mixing it up against opposing defenses so I’m going to go with the TE with the longest odds in Trautman at +1200.
He’s never going to run more routes than TE1 Evan Engram, but Trautman plays the most snaps of any Broncos TE and has run more routes per game this year than Adkins.
We just saw two TE scores against Houston last week in George Kittle and Jake Tonges.
Don’t put it past Payton to draw up an end-zone target for Trautman or TE Marcedes Lewis, who just signed to the practice squad.
Once I saw that Broncos CB Patrick Surtain would be out for the foreseeable future, I had to lock in WR Nico Collins at +150.
Surtain may not be as airtight as last season when he won DPOY, but he’s not far off, and he has been a problem for opposing WR1s this season.
That being said, we’ve seen over the last couple of games that the Broncos defense can be thrown on, with four passing touchdowns allowed and three of those to wide receivers.
The Texans haven’t been the most efficient offense this season, but they should still be able to move the ball with QB C.J. Stroud, who will look for his top threat against the Broncos' man coverage.
Verdict: Nico Collins +170 | Adam Trautman +1100
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Chargers vs. Titans
I bet on Daniel Jones to score against the Titans defense last week because I was convinced they were going to give up at least three rushing TDs to the Colts.
Well, they did, but they just allowed RB Jonathan Taylor to take them all instead of one falling to Jones.
I guess I can take solace in knowing the Titans run defense is putrid.
With the Titans allowing 14 rushing TDs this season (ranked last), all rushing options should be on the table for the Chargers. So, let’s take a swing on QB Justin Herbert.
He’s quietly gotten seven red-zone carries this season while averaging 6.7 YPC.
RB Kimani Vidal will likely get opportunities, too, but if he’s not as efficient as Taylor was last week, I like Herbert to finish the job.
I’m also eying Gunnar Helm with the Titans in this matchup against the Chargers.
His role has increased each week, and he leads the team with three end-zone targets after catching his first career TD last week.
His targets per route run have been a bit finicky this year, but TE1 Chigoziem Okonkwo missed practice this week and may be inactive, which would make Helm the TE1 by default.
With the Titans highly likely to be in a trailing game script with more passing opportunities this week, let’s take the rookie to score another one.
Verdict: Justin Herbert +475 | Gunnar Helm +425
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Jaguars vs. Raiders
It’s been three games and a lot of rehabilitation, but it looks like Raiders TE Brock Bowers is ready to go, and I’m grabbing him this week against the Jaguars.
Fresh off the bye and a shutout loss to the Chiefs, I fully expect the Raiders to be in desperation mode on offense.
Facing the Jaguars, who have given up a TD to the TE in three of their last four games, this sets up well for Bowers to get his first TD of the season.
The Jaguars finally had a game where they went all-in and used Travis Hunter as a wide receiver, but now he's on injured reserve.
So, let’s target the next man up in WR Parker Washington at +300.
Washington has been used sparingly through the season as the Jags fourth wide receiver, but when he's been on the field, he has led the Jaguars in targets-per-route-run, and also saw more targets against zone coverage than WR Dyami Brown.
Facing a Raiders secondary that plays the most zone defense in the NFL, I think Washington has massive upside to score another TD in Week 9.
Verdict: Parker Washington +300 | Brock Bowers +190
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Saints vs. Rams
With the Saints starting Tyler Shough at QB, New Orleans' passing game is a bit of an unknown, but if sportsbooks are going to offer WR Chris Olave at +300 and Taysom Hill at +400, those are auto-bets at those prices.
Olave leads the team in end-zone targets with eight, and has the highest target share against zone defense with two touchdowns.
Since the Rams play zone at a top-seven rate with lot of two-high safeties, I’m going to the WR with the shorter aDOT and the fixture in this offense.
The Rams are tricky because I always want to bet WR Davante Adams whenever I can, but his price to score is minus-odds, even with WR Puka Nacua coming back.
I think with everyone back healthy, let’s go with TE Tyler Higbee at +425.
He caught a TD in Week 7 and he has run the most routes of any Rams TE this year while also seeing the most red-zone targets outside of Nacua and Adams.
If you want to bet on TE Davis Allen or TE Colby Parkinson instead at higher odds, that’s fine, but Higbee is where I’ll go this week.
Verdict: Chris Olave +320 | Tyler Higbee +425
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Chiefs vs. Bills
By now, I think we’ve seen this matchup enough where we all have a pretty good idea on which players are fixtures in this offense and which ones are likely to be passersby.
Even though the Colts have the AFC Conference lead, both the Bills and Chiefs may be looking at this game as a pathway to the No. 1 seed. I fully expect this to be back and forth with a neutral game script most of the way.
I don’t usually like to bet on “vibes” when it comes to TD scorers, but after scoring twice last week and the stakes in this matchup, I’m riding with QB Josh Allen to impose his will and get a score.
He’s got five rushing TDs this year, and is second amongst all QBs in rush attempts inside the 10-yard line.
The Chiefs have had some issues already this season against QBs, with three rushing TDs allowed. There’s also potential to ladder Allen’s TDs to 2+ at +800.
However, if we’re looking at a Bills pass-catcher, I think we have to target WR Khalil Shakir at +220.
He leads the team with eight red-zone targets, and I don’t trust WR Keon Coleman (+280) enough in a high-stakes matchup when he's likely shadowed by Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie.
In the two games with WR Rashee Rice back for the Chiefs, I’ve bet on WR Xavier Worthy each time, and he failed to score a TD, while Rice scored three times.
Am I going right back to him? Sure am!
In two games with Rice back, Worthy's gotten two red-zone targets while running the most routes and playing the most snaps.
He’s clearly third fiddle in the passing game behind Rice and TE Travis Kelce, but Worthy plays too many snaps in an efficient offense to be priced at +180 or higher.
At +200, I’ll take another swing on Worthy to score a TD since I think the Bills will do everything they can to limit Rice in this spot.
Verdict: Josh Allen +120 | Khalil Shakir +220 | Xavier Worthy +200
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