NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Your Guide To Betting Every Week 17 Game
Getty Images. Pictured: Drew Brees, Derrick Henry
NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions
Cowboys vs. Giants Odds
BJ Cunningham: With all of the weapons missing on the offensive side of the ball for the Giants, they’re going to have a tough time moving the ball — they’re the least-explosive offense in the NFL.
Dalton has looked fantastic over the last three weeks and has all of his weapons ready to go, so the Cowboys should cruise to a victory.
I have them projected around 2.5-point favorites, so there’s value on them at -1.
Pick: Dallas -1 (up to -1.5) [Bet at PointsBet]
Steelers vs. Browns Odds
Chris Raybon: The Browns could guarantee themselves a playoff spot with a win, but added incentive doesn’t tend to lead to improved against-the-spread (ATS) performance.
Last season, the Steelers beat the Browns, 20-13, with Devlin Hodges starting at quarterback and without key players such as James Conner, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pouncey and Stephon Tuitt. And the Steelers team that takes the field this Sunday will be no worse than the 2-13 Jets squad that upset the Browns last week.
According to our Action Labs data, Mike Tomlin is 37-19-2 (66%) ATS as an underdog in his career, including 12-3-2 (80%) without Roethlisberger.
Tomlin is also 9-8 straight-up as a moneyline underdog without Roethlisberger, and I went with Pittsburgh as a moneyline underdog in this week’s Action Network NFL Betting Podcast, so I wouldn’t hesitate to place a small wager on a longshot upset.
Pick: Steelers +9.5 (down to +7.5), +340 (down to +300) [Bet at BetMGM]
Ravens vs. Bengals Odds
Michael Arinze: If you’re the Ravens, you would want to put the Bengals to the sword early in this game and not even give them any inclination that they have a chance to come out with a win. But the Bengals could let it rip with their passing game and go after this Ravens secondary that clearly is not at 100%.
Both possibilities could certainly lead to an entertaining game with points on the board.
There’s another thing to keep in mind for this game: Going back to 2009, the total has a history of going over when the Bengals are at home and facing a team with a win percentage above .500.
This system is active on Sunday and has a 28.3% return on investment.
The over deserves a look in this spot. I would look to lock this play in at the current price of 43.5 at BetMGM, as some books are already moving their number up to 44 as of writing.
Pick: Over 43.5 (to 44) [Bet at BetMGM]
Dolphins vs. Bills Odds
Michael Arinze: Buffalo was a 5.5-point home favorite in lookahead lines. The Bills throttled the Patriots, 38-9, last week. Now the Bills are only favored by 2 to 2.5 points as of Saturday (compare real-time odds here).
So what has changed? The answer is not a whole lot.
The line suggests that this game doesn’t have the same level of importance for the Bills as it did almost two weeks ago when the lookahead lines were posted. There’s no question to me that the Bills are the better side with all things being equal. However, I would still be reluctant to play them for the full game.
This game comes down to whether the Bills decide to rest their starters. There’s also a chance that head coach Sean McDermott pulls his players early if the Browns are dominating the Steelers, which would actually give Buffalo the 2-seed without having to defeat Miami.
Since this is somewhat of a correlated decision, it makes sense to try to get ahead of the market and play the Bills on the first half line at -1.5 at PointsBet. I would then come right back and play the Dolphins on the full-game moneyline — BetMGM has the best price on the board right now at +120.
I would feel comfortable playing the Bills up to -2 in the first half and the Dolphins down to +110.
Vikings vs. Lions Odds
Mike Randle: In a game with much personnel uncertainty on both sides of the ball, laying 7 points with the home team is simply too much.
The Lions struggled in Week 15 against Tampa Bay, but played without several offensive playmakers and their head coach. I expect a much better performance at home in a matchup against an equally poor defense.
Plus in the Vikings’ only game without Dalvin Cook this season, they were embarrassed at home by the Falcons, 40-23.
I’m taking Detroit +7 points at home, which will be a huge number if Stafford plays as expected. The high game total indicates a shootout, and getting a touchdown with the home team in the season finale is too enticing.
Pick: Lions +7 [Bet at BetMGM]
Jets vs. Patriots Odds
BJ Cunningham: With how terrible both offenses have been this season, we should see a really low-scoring game, especially since this matchup has no meaning to either team.
I have only about 37.5 points projected, so there’s value on the under at 40 points.
Pick: Under 40
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Odds
Brandon Anderson: Atlanta tends to play teams close before falling late, and it’s done that time and again this season.
This division rivalry has a similar history: Eight of the last 11 meetings between these teams has been within one score, and Atlanta has actually won six of the last eight games between them.
The Bucs want this win, though, and they’re very good and have the ability to blow these Falcons out — but recent history tells us Atlanta could stay in this game and make things interesting.
There’s one other wrinkle — if the Rams lose to the Cardinals on Sunday, the Bucs will lock into the 5-seed regardless of their outcome. Considering L.A. is playing a backup quarterback who’s never played before, there’s always the chance that the Rams could be getting blown out at halftime, which could push Tampa to rest its own guys in the second half.
This stuff is complicated.
I like the Bucs, and I feel pretty good about them doing what they have to in order to secure the No. 5 seed, but that could mean a close win that doesn’t cover (or even a loss) if the Rams lose ugly.
If the Falcons take a lead here, I’ll be looking to live bet the Bucs moneyline in-game if I can get that around even odds.
But I have a better play: The Bucs’ Super Bowl odds. If I’m confident that they’ll wrap up the 5-seed, then I’m also more confident they’ll surviving next weekend.
That also likely sends them to Green Bay, a matchup Tampa Bay has shown it can handle. The Bucs also played the Chiefs within a field goal a month ago.
As a 5-seed, it’s entirely conceivable that the Bucs are the biggest threat to win the Super Bowl outside of the top-seeded Chiefs and Packers. I’m playing my confidence in the Bucs by grabbing their +1200 Super Bowl odds — the Bucs would beat an outmatched NFC East opponent next week, and once they’re down to the final eight teams, you won’t find anything close to +1200.
Play Tampa ML live if you get a good look, but otherwise. look big picture on this one and see if Tom can get one more ring.
Pick: Bucs to win Super Bowl +1200 [Bet at PointsBet]
Packers vs. Bears Odds
Raheem Palmer: Aaron Rodgers has dominated the Bears throughout his career, going 19-5 straight up and 17-7 against the spread. With the Bears’ issues at secondary, I’m not sure how that changes here.
The Bears offense has improved lately, but they’ve done it against the Lions, Texans, Vikings and Jaguars — bottom-feeders as far as NFL defenses are concerned.
Running back David Montgomery has been a major factor in the success of the Bears offense, averaging 5.1 yards per carry over the last month, which should play into the Packers’ weaknesses. Still, the Packers did hold Derrick Henry to just 23 rushes for 98 yards last week and an explosive Titans offense to just 14 points.
Although that game took place in the snow, the Packers put up 40 points of their own.
It’s clear that these are two teams in two different weight classes, although the Bears have to win to get into the playoffs, but the Packers are also playing for home-field advantage throughout the postseason and a win could lock up Rodgers’ third MVP Award.
While the loss of left tackle David Bakhtiari is a concern — particularly against a Bears defensive line with Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack — Green Bay’s experience playing without him this season makes me feel comfortable in the team’s ability to overcome his absence.
My numbers make this game closer to Packers -6, so at -4, this is a positive expected value proposition. I’ll lay the points with the Packers looking forward to seeing the path to the Super Bowl in the NFC go through Lambeau Field.
Pick: Packers -4 [Bet at PointsBet]
Cardinals vs. Rams Odds
Stuckey: These teams met in early December in Glendale in a game that the Rams absolutely dominated. Los Angeles, which closed as a 2.5-point road favorite, out-gained Arizona 463-232 in a 38-28 victory.
That previous line would imply L.A. should be about a 4-point favorite at home based on my current home-field advantage values. Per my latest power ratings (which help power our NFL PRO Projections), I’m in that same neighborhood.
However, the Rams aren’t healthy with quarterback Jared Goff and wide receiver Cooper Kupp out in addition to some injuries in their backfield. Therefore, I adjusted this line down about six points, which would make the Cardinals close to 2-point favorites.
However, Kyler Murray also isn’t fully healthy. Assuming he’s limited from a mobility perspective, I would make the Cardinals a very tiny road favorite, so I gladly grabbed the field goal with the home dog.
I expect this Rams defense to really play up here with Goff out. What also pushed me off the edge is this game with so much uncertainty is the coaching mismatch: I’ll happily side with Sean McVay over Kliff Kingsbury in a do-or-die game any day of the week that ends in “y.”
Oh, and for what it’s worth, McVay is 7-0 straight up and and against the spread vs. the Cardinals.
Pick: Rams +3 (-120) or better [Bet at PointsBet]
Saints vs. Panthers Odds
Mike Vitanza: The Saints have proven all season that they can get the job done in different ways. With the possibility of earning the top overall seed in the NFC playoffs on the line, I’m counting on them to do it again.
That said, a 5.5-point spread is large for a team that will be without their top playmakers. And while the Panthers are also short-handed, they’ve utilized their run-first approach and moved the ball well enough to keep their games close. In fact, over their last four games, the average final margin has been just 5.25 points.
Curtis Samuel has proven to be a capable runner out of the backfield, and I expect the Panthers to find creative ways to get him the ball in space again in this one. If they can execute and keep the clock rolling offensively, this game will be closer than the skill gap of the two rosters.
Sharp money agrees: Per our public betting data, while only 36% of tickets are on the Panthers to cover, an overwhelming 96% of the money is backing them as of writing. That represents a substantial 60% difference between the two. We’ve also seen multiple reverse line movements from sportsbooks that reinforce the same point — sharp money is on the Panthers.
I’m betting on the Panthers to keep this one close enough as they’ve done over the past month, and am comfortable betting them down to +5.
Pick: Panthers +5.5 [Bet at PointsBet]
Titans vs. Texans Odds
BJ Cunningham: This feels like a seriously dangerous spot for Tennessee.
The Titans have played down to their opponents often this season, while the Texans continue to hang around and give themselves a a chance to win — or lose, it seems — late.
Tennessee’s pass defense has been miserable this season, and Watson should be able to pass all over this team and keep up with the Titans scoring, just like Houston did the last time around.
The pressure is all on Tennessee here, while Houston can play loose and relaxed as the potential spoiler. And while you would think teams with all the incentive to win in Week 17 may have been very successful in the past, the opposite is actually true.
This is a trap spot for Tennessee. The Titans need to win or catch a loss from the Ravens, Colts, Browns or Dolphins. Three of those teams are double-digit favorites and could be coasting by halftime. The pressure on Tennessee will only increases from there if this game stays close.
My spidey senses are tingling. Houston has hung around in games all season, and Tennessee’s defense is vulnerable. I’m playing the Texans at +7.5 to keep this thing too close for comfort, and I’ll sprinkle a small portion on the moneyline upset too to see if they can really blow up the playoff picture.
Picks: Texans +7.5; ML +290 [Bet at BetMGM ]
Jaguars vs. Colts Odds
Phillip Kall: Jacksonville looks lost, as each week seems to go from bad to worse. With the No. 1 pick locked up, it’s surprising that the Jaguars choose to continue with Glennon at quarterback despite his miserable play. Pairing his struggles with a defense crushed by injuries explains why the blowouts seem to only be getting worse.
After a devastating loss and their playoff hopes on the line, the Colts will be focused coming into Week 17. With the offense hitting its stride thanks to Taylor’s emergence, a motivated Colts team would give anyone trouble.
Against the depleted Jaguars, the Colts should dominate from start to finish — back them to make it a fourth straight blowout loss for the Jaguars.
Pick: Colts -14 [Bet at BetMGM]
Seahawks vs. 49ers Odds
Raheem Palmer: Handicapping Week 17 means you have to play amateur psychologist. When it comes to playoff teams you need to understand their motivations, their coach’s tendencies and their overall approach towards rest vs rust.
Pete Carroll has gone on record to say that the Seahawks are “going all out,” but that doesn’t necessarily lend itself towards a win or a cover. Looking back at his tenure with the Seahawks, his teams are just 4-6 against the spread in Week 17, failing to cover the last four games.
The betting markets have seen one-way action on the Seahawks all week, and despite a lengthy injury report from the 49ers, I’m not seeing much value in laying nearly a touchdown on the road with the Seahawks.
The 49ers proved last week that they haven’t given up. They brought back George Kittle, and C.J. Beathard is more than capable of scoring points against this Seahawks defense.
While I could talk myself into a first-half bet on the Seahawks at -4 with them playing for a chance at home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, if they glance at the scoreboard and see the Packers ahead against the Bears at halftime, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them sit some players toward the end of this game.
This really isn’t a game I’d want to bet given the circumstances, but if you feel the need to bet something in this matchup, I would recommend San Francisco +7.
Pick: 49ers +7 [Bet at PointsBet]
Chargers vs. Chiefs Odds
Phillip Kall: In a game with little on the line, more players are likely to be held out for health reasons than usual.
For the Chargers, this will focus on preventing nagging injuries from getting serious. For the Chiefs, this could mean both being careful with nagging injuries and resting healthy players to prevent new injuries.
Despite Justin Herbert frequently being under duress, he produced one of the best statistical seasons for a rookie quarterback. Against the Chiefs, if star defensive linemen Chris Jones and/or Frank Clark are ultimately held out or even limited, Herbert could have his first chance to throw cleanly from the pocket.
With a set of backups running the skill positions on offense, Kansas City won’t be able to keep up with L.A.’s passing attack.
Back Herbert to lead the Chargers to a fourth straight win and some offseason optimism.
Pick: Chargers -3.5 (to -5.5) [Bet at BetMGM]
Raiders vs. Broncos Odds
Mike Vitanza: Despite the gap in talent between these two rosters, the Raiders find themselves as just 2.5-point favorites in this road matchup between two teams with nothing left to play for.
With home-field advantage negated due to COVID-19 restrictions, this game will come down to who can make fewer mistakes. For my money, I’m betting on the Raiders to finish strong and send a message to the rest of the AFC that they belong in the playoff hunt.
Offensively, Las Vegas’ prowess far exceeds Denver’s, and while the Raiders struggled defensively, the Broncos have done nothing to indicate that they can take advantage of these spots the way other teams in the league can.
With 72% of tickets and 70% of money on the Raiders as of Saturday (find real-time public betting data here), this is an instance where both sharps and the public agree. The data points in the same direction. Take the Raiders to cover this small spread and grab it before it heads above the 3-point threshold.
Pick: Raiders -2.5 [Bet at BetMGM]