NFL Odds: Sunday Afternoon Picks for Every Week 13 Game

Week 13 NFL Odds

Steelers vs.

Falcons

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Dylan Wilkerson:Opposing QBs have an average of 3.5 rush attempts per game against the Steelers this season. This includes games against mobile QBs such as Josh Allen, Joe Burrow (twice) and Jalen Hurts. Only one QB has rushed seven or more times against Pittsburgh, and that was Mac Jones in Week 2. While the Steelers run a blitz-heavy defense, they aren’t getting home very often, and the mobile quarterbacks have not been forced to scramble. 

Marcus Mariota is not a great pocket passer. However, he only has more than seven rush attempts in four games this season. Tyler Allgeier has seen an increase in rush attempts, even with Cordarrelle Patterson back in the lineup. If the Falcons want to run the ball, it will be with their new found tandem in the backfield, not with their quarterback. I expect to see Mariota spend some more time in the pocket this weekend, and less time scrambling.

BetMGM has this bet at a plus number. You can use our Action Labs props tool to get the best numbers across sportsbooks.

Pick: Marcus Mariota Under 6.5 Rush Attempts (+105) | Bet to Under 6

Packers vs.

Bears

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Landon Silinsky: The state of both offenses isn't great right now, and with both teams wanting to run the ball at a high rate (Chicago is No. 1 in rushing play percentage), there should be a bunch of clock-killing drives.

Regardless of how healthy Fields is, I don't see the Bears having a ton of offensive success and  could see this being a 20-17 type game.

Give me the under in this spot.

Pick: Under 44.5

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Jaguars vs.

Lions

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Anthony Dabbundo: There's a massive difference between Lawrence's production when under pressure vs. clean pockets this season. He has 13 big-time throws, just four turnover worthy plays and an 88 Pro Football Focus grade from a clean pocket this season. That has amounted to 14 touchdowns, three interceptions and 7.1 yards per attempt. When under pressure, Lawrence's grade drops to 27.7 with 11 turnover worthy plays.

If you can get to Lawrence and play solid man defense, you can shut down the Jaguars offense. Lawrence also grades out better against zone coverage than man. So, while the Lions do play a lot of man defense, they don't get enough pressure to supplement it.

The result will be many clean pockets for Lawrence. The Jaguars have had so many close losses and are better than their record indicates.

The Jaguars defensive line isn't elite by any stretch, but they do rank seventh in pass rush win rate. They have more talent along the front to rattle Goff a few times. Like Lawrence, Goff is horrendous when under pressure.

Detroit was clearly undervalued in the market over the past few weeks, playing against overvalued teams like the Packers, Bills and Giants. But now, as a toss-up against a better Jaguars team, I'll take Lawrence and Pederson's offense to carve up the Lions secondary.

Pick: Jaguars ML | Bet to -115

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Jets vs.

Vikings

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Anthony Dabbundo: Based on our Action Network luck rankings, the Vikings have been one of the most fortunate teams in the NFL this season. It's almost impossible to have a 9-2 record with an almost even point differential and one of the worst yards per play differentials in the entire league.

The Jets offense looked like an entirely different unit last week once White came in and they were facing one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Bears. White is still playing and the Vikings defense is just as soft in the secondary as the Bears.

Given that the Vikings needed late scores to comeback and beat the Lions, Saints, Commanders and Patriots, don't be surprised if this game also comes down to a coin flip near the end. And while the Vikings have had every coin come up heads for them this year — even down to their turnover variance — that won't happen forever.

The Jets are the value side in this matchup, and I'd play them at +3 or better.

Pick: Jets +3

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Commanders vs.

Giants

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Sam Farley: I think the most valuable bet for this game features the dual-threat Penn State alum, Barkley. Over the past four weeks, he's been less of a threat in the passing game with a total of 43 receiving yards over that stretch.

We're backing Saquon to hit the under on his receiving yards here as well, with the line currently standing at 20.5 yards. He's gone under that total for four weeks in a row and  seven times in 11 games so far this season; it's notable how ineffective he's in the Giants' passing game.

The Commanders have also been very effective at stopping running backs in the passing game, with only three teams allowing fewer receiving yards to running backs than the Commanders.

Recent trends tell us that Barkley has struggled in the passing game and with the Commanders being amongst the best in the league and locking down running backs then it's wise to bet against him.

Pick: Saquon Barkley Under 20.5 Receiving Yards | Bet to 19.5

Titans vs.

Eagles

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John LanFranca:Mike Vrabel has a winning record when the Titans find themselves catching points (22-17 straight up) and his teams have covered at a 61.5% rate as underdogs since he's been the head coach. When the Titans, under Vrabel, are underdogs of a field goal or more, they are 21-7 (75%) against the spread.

Not only do the trends suggest the value lies with the underdog in this spot, but the specific matchup does as well.

Tennessee's defense can force the Eagles into a playing style with which they are uncomfortable. Keep in mind, no team has cleared the 20-point mark versus the Titans since Week 3. I will gladly take the points with the visiting team in a game where points will be at a premium.

Pick: Titans +4.5 | Bet to +4

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Broncos vs.

Ravens

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Blake Krass: The Ravens have the best first-half defense in the NFL. They also have a statistical advantage over the Broncos in nearly every measurable category when you look at DVOA. This should be a game where you could throw a dart at a dartboard to choose how you want to fade the Broncos and you would probably win your bet.

However, I am going to be backing the Ravens on the first-half spread. The Ravens have been one of the best teams in the NFL in the first half. They have jumped on teams all year, but then struggled to close games out. That is why I think the first-half angle is the way to go here.

I think the Ravens score early and then control the game the rest of the way.

Pick: Ravens 1H -4.5 | Bet to -6

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Browns vs.

Texans

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Landon Silinsky: The past few weeks have been difficult for Houston. The Texans faced four tough defenses — the Eagles, Giants, Commanders and Dolphins — and scored a combined 57 points in that stretch. However, they should have some success moving the ball this week, and this game could turn into a bit of a back-and-forth affair, especially since it's going to be played in the dome in Houston.

Cleveland should give Watson plenty of easy reads and rely quite a bit on Chubb in Watsons' first start in two years. It feels too easy to simply lay the points with the Browns here, as the Texans have shown fight when they fall behind.

Instead, we will attack the total.

I expect Cleveland to hit its implied team total of 27, meaning we need the Texans to get to 20, which I firmly believe is in their range of outcomes against this porous Browns defense.

Give me the over here.

Pick: Over 46.5 | Bet to 47

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Seahawks vs.

Rams

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Cody Goggin:The amount of injuries that this Los Angeles team has endured this season is just too much for any team to handle and that will likely show again this weekend. This team has been incapable of moving the ball all season long and now will be without the best defensive player in the league for the foreseeable future.

The Seahawks' offense is perfectly capable of taking advantage of these extra drives and should have a fairly successful day on offense. Smith and this passing attack, along with a Seattle rushing scheme that can take advantage of Donald’s absence up the middle, will be able to cover this seven point spread.

Pick: Seahawks -7 (Bet to -7)

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Dolphins vs.

49ers

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Phillip Kall:The 49ers may be No. 1 in both points and yards per game but they have had some scheduling help getting there. They have played just one offense as good as the Dolphins and that was the Chiefs in Week 7. They can say injuries played a part in that game, but 44 points and 529 yards aren’t entirely being solved by one or two players. 

San Fran’s defense plays around the pressure its defense creates, but the Dolphins' offense plays to counter that. Tagovailoa has the sixth-lowest time to throw, per Next Gen Stats. This will make it difficult for the 49ers' front to have its typical impact. It will also leave the onus on San Fran’s defensive backs to make plays in space against Miami’s speedy receivers; a very tall task for the Niners' weakest unit defensively.

Fortunately, the 49ers' offense will have a similar advantage against the Dolphins' defense. Miami has poured its resources into the defensive front and while it has paid off, this will be its toughest test. Like Miami’s offense, San Fran’s offense is built around players who are excellent in space. It will be up to Jimmy Garoppolo to get them the ball on time but if he does they should have success gaining yards after the catch.

This means the question comes down to which coach can out-scheme the other and which quarterback can outplay the other. While I will trust Shanahan and McDaniel to make their mark on this game, I will only trust one quarterback to do so. We have seen Tagovailoa in huge close games this year pull throw and lead comeback victories against Baltimore and Buffalo. 

As for Garoppolo, we have seen him in big games against the best opponents and that is when things don’t go as smoothly. His playoff quarterback rating of 74.1 and four to six touchdown to interception ratio says it all. I know this is not the playoffs, but it is a huge game against one of the league’s best. 

Tagovailoa is Pro Football Focus' No. 2 quarterback and has led his team through games like this already this year. I will trust him to do it once again.

Pick: Dolphins +3.5 or Better

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Chiefs vs.

Bengals

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Kansas City should have won both meetings between these two teams last season and the Bengals continue to get too much love in the market for last year's Super Bowl run. Chase will improve the offense, but the Chiefs defensive pressure rate has improved this season and Burrow still has the same sack problems he did last year.

The Bengals defense won't be able to get pressure on Mahomes with its standard pass rush. Cincinnati is 21st in pass rush win rate and Anarumo will probably need to scheme up pressure if he wants his defense to get anywhere near Mahomes.

If this line gets to three, I'm passing on the matchup. But Chase's return has bumped this under the key number and I like the Chiefs at -2.5.

Pick: Kansas City -2.5

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Chargers vs.

Raiders

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I’m not getting cute here.

One of my golden rules is to bet the over on running back yards every week against Los Angeles. It won’t hit every game, but it’s darn profitable over the long haul. So I’m rolling with Jacobs to do what even mediocre running backs have done — carve the Bolts up on the ground.

I do get it if you’re a bit leery, though. It’s not risk free. He’s had 20-plus totes in seven of his last eight games, but it’s fair to wonder if Las Vegas limits his carries to manage his calf injury. I’m definitely taking the chance on the NFL’s leading rusher, though. I mean, did you watch how Jacobs dominated last week despite being banged up? He carried a monster load all game long and still ripped off a game-winning 86-yard game-winning touchdown deep in overtime.

That being said, monitor Jacobs’ situation throughout the day, especially when inactives are announced. If reports are wrong and he happens to be ruled out, quickly pivot to Las Vegas’ other running backs, particularly Zamir White. Reports are he’s likely the one to pick up the slack. He had limited opportunities a week ago but did rip off gains of 17 and 11 yards on his only carries of the game. White’s averaging 4.7 yards per carry on the season, and if he’s the main back, there’s a good chance he does what virtually every primary ball carrier does, and that’s hit the over on rushing yards.

Still, I think it’s highly likely Jacobs gives it a go unless his calf is about to fall off. Las Vegas is flawed, but has a puncher's chance of a playoff push, or at least making it close. The Raiders need their star running back to make that a reality.

Add it all up and I expect the Raiders to ride Jacobs like Secretariat. BetMGM and DraftKings have 90.5 as the line, as of Saturday afternoon.

Pick: Josh Jacobs Over 90.5 Rushing Yards or Better