Saints vs Ravens Odds, Best Bets: Our Top 5 Monday Night Football Picks
Saints vs Ravens Odds
-115o / -105u
-115o / -105u
Saints vs Ravens Odds & Picks
Brandon Anderson: A 24-0 shutout loss may not have looked great for the Raiders, but it’s exactly what the Saints expected from this season. It was the best defensive game of the year for New Orleans, and this team has quietly been a top-10 DVOA squad over the last five weeks, top 12 on both offense and defense.
That Saints result may be buying us precious value on the line here though, dropping it below the key number against an opponent that has been better all year.
Ravens -1.5 | Saints +1.5
The Ravens have the league’s best rushing attack despite a faltering passing game, and the defense filled its biggest need with the Roquan Smith trade. Baltimore also has a massive special teams advantage, so that could put it on the front foot all game.
I like the Ravens right from the start. Baltimore has historically been an outstanding first-half team with Lamar Jackson. He’s now 36-19-2 ATS (65%) in the first half, and Baltimore’s defense has been far better in first halves (eighth in DVOA) this year than second (29th).
The Saints fit that same trend. New Orleans’ offense ranks 21st or worse in each of the first three quarters. I love the Ravens in the first half.
Beware late, though. Baltimore has already blown three double-digit leads, and the Saints have saved their best for late.
Baltimore ranks last in fourth quarter defense, and New Orleans ranks third-best offensively. I’ll try to get my Baltimore money by halftime, then watch for a good spot to bet on the Saints live late.
Charlie DiSturco: Finally, the path is cleared for Isaiah Likely to take off.
The talented rookie tight end has a clear path to success with Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman ruled out.
Both Andrews and Bateman suffered injuries against the Buccaneers and the result was the Likely show. He played the most snaps of any Ravens player, hauled in six receptions for 77 yards and found the end zone for the first time in his career.
We’ve seen Lamar Jackson’s affinity for the tight end position. Even while behind Andrews on the depth chart, Likely has been involved, albeit in a limited manner. He did go over this 40-yard mark in Week 2.
Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Likely’s aDOT is 7.4 this season and without Andrews that number jumped up to 10.4 in Week 8. He should see 5+ targets this week once again and averages 5.8 yards after catch.
I’ve been waiting for the opportunity to jump at Likely’s receiving yards prop and the time has come.
Likely is extremely athletic and a threat at all times. We’ve seen him haul in receptions of 16+ in three straight weeks and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him command the lion’s share of the targets on Monday night.
He knows that his starting job is only temporary until Andrews returns and I expect him to come out the gate hot.
Buy your Likely stock before it’s too late.
John LanFranca: Monday Night Football should be a closely contested game and the Saints need to get a win if they are going to keep pace in the NFC South. Mark Ingram is injured and the game plan will call for Alvin Kamara to be fed without limitations.
Since returning from injury, Kamara has cleared this number in three of his last four games. The only game he failed to hit the mark was a game where the Saints fell behind quickly against the Cardinals after Andy Dalton threw a couple pick sixes to end the half (Kamara only received 11 carries that game). Sheer volume and the game flow point to another heavy workload for the star RB.
The Ravens defense is 25th against the run, according to DVOA, and they are 19th in the league in yards per carry against at 4.43. That number isn't too far off what Kamara himself averages per tote, so simple math tells us Kamara needs only 15-16 carries to cash this ticket.
Although a small sample size, in the three games Ingram missed in 2021, Kamara received 70 total carries. All signs point to plenty of touches and yards on the ground against a Baltimore defense that can be exploited.
I'm betting Kamara's rushing yards over up to 63.5.
Ricky Henne: It was a frustrating start to the season for Alvin Kamara, but boy has he come alive the last month. He’s averaging 145.3 combined rushing and receiving yards per game the last four weeks, posting totals of 194, 124, 105 and 158 during that span.
While Kamara averages a ho-hum 68.8 yards per game on the ground, he has an underrated matchup against the Ravens. Baltimore may have the NFL’s third-best run defense, giving up only 97.5 yards per game, but they rank just 25th in rushing DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
Where Kamara figures to do significant damage though is through the air. He’s emerged as Andy Dalton’s primary target in a passing game that hardly resembles the golden years under Drew Brees, commanding a 25.8 target share with Dalton constantly checking down.
In fact, Kamara’s 7.5 targets per game is the second-most for a running back, trailing only Austin Ekeler.
Kamara averages 47.8 receiving yards per game, and is Pro Football Focus’ fifth-highest graded receiving back among those with at least 30 receptions. Now he faces a Baltimore defense surrendering the fifth-most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs (45.6).
The Saints’ offense runs through Kamara, so I'm confidently taking the over on 100.5 combined yards.
Billy Ward: When I first started looking into this bet before the 2021 season, games like this were exactly what I was imagining. This prop correlates heavily with the spread, and moderately with the total. Which makes perfect sense, as close, low-scoring games are less likely to see one team score repeatedly.
Recently, rather than just price every game exactly the same, BetMGM has caught on to this trend and varied its lines based on the total (as far as I can tell.) It's unclear if it considers the spread at all, but that's beside the point.
When it posted the +180 line for the no side of this bet, this game had a total of roughly 48 and a spread of 2.5. It's now down to a 1.5 spread and total of 46. Both are signs that smart money is coming in on this game being closer and lower scoring than previously imagined.
The fair price for this prop in similarly lined games is roughly +135, so this is a significant edge. I'd take this down to +160 or so if they were to update it — but they won't.