College Football Betting Primer: What to Know Before Placing Week 5 Bets
John Adams/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: A Georgia football helmet.
It’s another great slate of college football. We might not have a battle at the top of the rankings, but every time slot has good games. League play is beginning in earnest, and the standings will start to separate.
Let’s kick back and enjoy this slate. But first, let’s take a look at some interesting nuggets from around the nation. Enjoy the games, and let's get to the window.
Another week, another set of questions surrounding Cam Rising's status. If Rising can go, Utah’s ceiling will be instantly raised as he can swing the market a few points. If not, Utah has been winning just fine.
But this Oregon State offense will easily be the stiffest test yet for Utah's stop unit.
A strange Friday night affair in Provo, though the fun part is when you remember this is actually a Big-12 conference game. The Cougars opened as field goal favorites, but the line has moved and they are now a 1-point home dog.
However, both teams have been inconsistent.
Bobby Petrino, now coordinating the revived Texas A&M offense, gets another crack at his old program in this neutral-site rivalry game. Petrino took the Razorbacks down to the wire last season as Missouri State’s head coach, but the FCS vs. FBS talent discrepancy eventually won out.
Now, he finds himself on the positive side of the talent ledger.
Petrino and the Aggies will be without the services of starting quarterback Conner Weigman for the rest of the season after he suffered a foot injury last week. Max Johnson will take over, and he is one of the most experienced backups in the country with 625 career passing attempts.
This should be one of the preeminent rock fights of this season.
Both coaching staffs take joy in dragging opponents into the muck. Both teams have defensive fronts that outclass the offensive lines opposite them. Both teams also have transfer quarterbacks struggling to lead mediocre passing attacks.
Two weeks ago, the Michael Desormeaux era in Lafayette got a shot in the arm when the team turned to redshirt freshman quarterback Zeon Chriss.
Freed from the shackles of the mediocre Ben Wooldridge and Chandler Fields, the Ragin' Cajuns offense has sprung to life with the young quarterback’s mobility.
Passing is still a work in progress, but Chriss has already rushed for four touchdowns and is averaging 10.3 yards per carry in two games. Is a Minnesota defense that just blew a 31-10 lead to Northwestern ready for this feisty new talent?
This line has moved about a touchdown in Colorado’s favor, from 27 down to 21. People understand that Colorado, for all the flash and the handful of superstars — both on the field and the sideline — is an easily beatable outfit.
But apparently, we still can’t help ourselves as action continues to pour in on the Buffs.
Hugh Freeze took the podium this week in front of the assembled media and was incredibly complimentary of Kirby Smart and Georgia. Of course, most coaches are, and how can you not be impressed with Smart's work?
But, for the second week in a row, a coach was downright effusive about Georgia. Maybe they are just hoping for mercy — or maybe they are just trying to prevent Smart from playing the "nobody believes in us" card?
Auburn and Freeze might be hoping for mercy as Smart has won six straight over Auburn, and the Tigers have averaged only 9.5 points over those contests.
The 4-0 Tigers leave the state of Missouri for the first time this season. They are two-touchdown favorites in a spot where they have traditionally done poorly ATS, including an outright loss in 2019.
They have a home date with LSU on deck, and a host of star players battling nagging injuries (QB Brady Cook, WR Luther Burden, DL Darius Robinson, CB Ennis Rakestraw) The let-down, look-ahead potential combo is off the charts in Nashville.
Quarterbacks are the name of the game here.
Texas Tech lost starter Tyler Shough, and backup Behren Morton — a fan favorite — is in line to start, although he also banged up his shoulder last week.
The Red Raiders will be facing off against their old signal-caller Donovan Smith, who traveled across the state to leave a crowded room in search of more opportunities.
One of my favorite articles on these electronic pages every week is “Stuckey’s Betting Spots,” where the Prime Minister shares his favorite plays.
He does a great job of sorting out the signal from the noise in the trends and the situations each week, and one of the most fascinating notes from this week’s piece is this note about Texas and Oklahoma the week before their Red River meeting.
"Over the past 25 years, Texas and Oklahoma have gone a combined 17-32-1 ATS (34.7%) the week before the Red River Rivalry. The Sooners are also just 4-13 ATS as a home favorite the week before facing the Longhorns since 1980, and they've lost outright as favorites in each of the past two seasons in this spot on the schedule.”
Perception is fascinating. Georgia State, left for dead in the Sun Belt East preseason prognostications, is favored over defending league champion Troy.
Troy’s losses were at Kansas State and against an excellent James Madison team in an absolute war. Yes, the Trojans defense has slipped from last year’s peak, but the offense has stepped forward, too.
The Trojans' body of work, dating back to last season, is far more impressive than Georgia State's. What short memories we all must have.
A massive game to find out who gets to finish second to Georgia in the SEC East.
Tennessee has had this one circled as a revenge spot since last year's loss. South Carolina has struggled to protect Spencer Rattler, and the Volunteers defense ranks seventh in the nation in PFF pass-rush grading.
Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has surged to the top of the Heisman Trophy odds board, where he's tied with reigning winner Caleb Williams at +350.
This game should be another blowout win for the Huskies as the Wildcats will be without starting quarterback Jayden de Laura.
Another win means more stats for Penix. His December trip to New York City is becoming more and more likely.
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