Eagles vs. Chargers Odds & Betting Predictions - December 9, 2025

Henley has seen his tackle production fall off a cliff over the last several games, clearing this number only once in his last 6. Last game, it was notable that he rushed the passer a season-high 16 times. Anytime a LB rushes the passer, it lowers their tackle chances significantly. Elite pass rushers like Aidan Hutchinson typically have tackle props in the 3.5 range, compared to when a LB is lined up in the box and is much more likely to be near a tackle opportunity. As a result, he only had 3 tackles last week. One of them was a split sack with Derwin James on Geno Smith, and another came on a broken run play where Smith was tripped up by G Atonio Mafi and fell backward, allowing Henley to tap him down for a cheap tackle. The way Henley has been getting tackles recently has been pretty fluky. To make matters worse, he faces the most brutal matchup for a LB in terms of tackle opportunities. The Eagles have been the worst team in the league at setting up LBs with chances, and I pointed this out the other week where not only were LBs finishing below expectations against them, but many posted season lows. Henley has shown such a low floor lately (2-tackle game, 3-tackle game last week) that while I’m not expecting a season-low output, I have him closer to 5.9 with around a 62% chance to stay under 6.5. The Chargers’ scorekeeper also dishes out assists at a bottom-4 rate, so it’s the perfect storm of underlying factors working against Henley in this market tonight.

I’ll make the case on the Sunday night recap podcast, but this number is starting to drop so I’m gonna grab the under now

Up and down this week. Too much on the plate, the NFL provides consistent reminders throughout the season that for many of us, this league cannot be defeated on volume - only by discipline. One of these weeks I will follow my own sage advice. This was not that week. With that said, a Chargers cover gives us a winning week even it was overly voluminous. Thank you for coming to my TedTalk. Here’s why I like the Chargers tonight: I make this game LAC -1.5 for starters, the line may suggest an overreaction to the Herbert injury. Chargers have the higher defensive efficiency grade, significantly better on 3rd downs this year, and let’s not forget - the Eagles are without 2 key players tonight on both sides of their line, Jalen Carter & Lane Johnson. Go Bolts ⚡️

Analysis on twitter vid @ anderspicks

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SNF and MNF Unders Overall: 97-57-2,63% (ROI:21%) Season:3-5-0,38% (ROI:-28%)

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@KendraMiddleton_ https://myaction.app/i9gsXPLRVYb

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Keenan Allen ⬆️ 3.5 Receptions (-114 @ FanDuel)(LAC) Keenan has been steady for LAC all season. He has 4+ catches in 10 of 12 games, averaging 5 catches a game. After seeing his snap rate fall a bit in the middle of the season, he's back up with 35+ snaps in each of the last 3 games. This matchup suits Allen well. Philly is allowing the 4th most receiving yards per game to outside WR's (122.1). They are much more susceptible on the outside this season and Allen plays on the outside about 60% of the time. On top of being a crisp route runner, he's a reliable option with great hands. On the season, he has a 70% catch rate. I think we got a good number here. LAC could easily be in a negative game script or fail to establish the run.

@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/vlYW83GcRYb