Patriots vs. Bears Odds & Betting Predictions - October 23, 2026

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From my TNF game guide/betting preview: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/new-england-patriots-vs-chicago-bears-prediction-pick-odds-nfl-thursday-night-football-october-22

The Patriots WR room has been in flux all year, and while A.J. Brown returned last week, Romeo Doubs is now on IR and Mack Hollins is still out, so there’s still opportunity for Chism. He was held without a catch last week and his route rate dropped to 26%, but he still played 62% of the snaps, his second-highest rate of the season, thanks to heavy 12 personnel usage. New England was also playing with a lead most of the game, so they were simply more run-heavy when he was on the field. I expect the Pats to lean into heavier TE personnel again because of the OL injuries, but this time they could be forced to throw more out of those sets. Chicago has allowed a league-high 13.9 yards per pass attempt against multiple-TE personnel and plays man coverage at the 4th-highest rate. That fits Chism well. He has 4.5 yards per route run against man this season with a 4/54/1 line on 7 targets. Small sample, but he also thrived against man last year. For me, the bigger question is which market to attack. Playing time is still the concern, so I’d rather avoid needing multiple catches. Chism has a career 14.4 yards per reception, and his targets tend to come a little further downfield. That’s why I prefer longest reception over his receptions or full-game receiving yards. I think there are more paths to something like 1/15/0 than 2/10/0. I have him clearing his longest rec of 11.5 around 60% of the time and the true number closer to 13 yards. If this moves up 1-2 yards, I’d be fine pivoting to receptions or receiving yards instead.

Tailing @nick_giffen

Project 62.5% over

Have fair +862 from 1st TD model https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-7-first-touchdown-model-projections-picks-for-every-game

Have close to a coinflip

BEWARE OF RISING TOTALS EARLY YR Overall: 60-25-0,71% (ROI:36%) Season:2-1-0,67% (ROI:27%) #TSA

@The_Oddsmaker 2 https://www.youtube.com/live/iZntOa8vGAU?is=GNoatY3ERqEk9jnz

@GDAWG5000 2 https://www.youtube.com/live/iZntOa8vGAU?is=GNoatY3ERqEk9jnz

@nick_giffen 1 https://www.youtube.com/live/iZntOa8vGAU?is=GNoatY3ERqEk9jnz

@The_Oddsmaker 1 https://www.youtube.com/live/iZntOa8vGAU?is=GNoatY3ERqEk9jnz

@GDAWG5000 1 https://www.youtube.com/live/iZntOa8vGAU?is=GNoatY3ERqEk9jnz

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The Patriots have allowed 39.3 rec yards to opposing RBs per game, while Swift has seen 10 targets in the past 2 weeks.

AJB had 10 targets in his first game back from injury, a 33% target share and ran routes on 91% of Maye's dropbacks. Volume is there.

Raridon has just one fewer RZ target than Hunter Henry this season, and with the Pats leaning on 13 personnel, using it on 19% of plays in W5, I want to back one of the TEs and Raridon offers a better value proposition than Henry.