Eagles vs. Bears Odds & Betting Predictions - September 29, 2026

Middle shot with how easily the ball is moving

SNF and MNF Unders Overall: 98-62-2,61% (ROI:18%) Season:0-1-0,0% (ROI:-100%) Extended Rest Unders Overall: 205-162-6,56% (ROI:7%) Season:1-0-0,100% (ROI:89%) #TSA

I’ll start by saying this: betting on a third string quarterback is terrifying. There’s no way around it. However, if there’s one coach in the NFL I trust to make this situation work, it’s Ben Johnson. He’s one of the best offensive minds in football, and I expect him to simplify the game plan, lean heavily on the run game and play action, and put Case Keenum in manageable situations. Keenum also isn’t your typical third string quarterback. He’s a 38 year old NFL veteran who has been thrown into situations like this throughout his career. He knows how to manage an offense, and he got the majority of the first team reps this week. We don’t need him to be great. We just need him to execute Johnson’s offense and avoid putting the Bears in bad situations. The bigger reason I like Chicago is that I continue to believe this Eagles team is incredibly overrated. Yes, Philadelphia is 2-0, but those wins came against the Titans and Commanders by a combined six points. The final scores have also been misleading compared to how Philadelphia has actually played. The underlying offensive numbers are concerning. Through two games, Philadelphia ranks dead last in yards before contact per rush and yards per play on first down. Their early down offense has been extremely inefficient, while they’ve survived because of unsustainable success on later downs. The offensive line, particularly on the interior, has been a problem, and losing A.J. Brown this offseason and Dallas Goedert to injury certainly doesn’t help. Even Philadelphia’s defense hasn’t looked quite right yet. The Eagles have struggled to generate pressure and have been vulnerable against the run, which is exactly where I expect Johnson to attack them. Most importantly, our model has Philadelphia winning this game by just 1.12 points, giving us more than two points of value on Bears +3.5. There’s obviously risk whenever you’re backing a third string quarterback, but getting more than a field goal with Ben Johnson at home against an Eagles team I believe is significantly overvalued is enough for me. Give the Bears +3.5 tonight.

Backing the rookie Makai Lemon here to have his first real impact game of the 2026 season after operating as the clear WR2 last week, running a route on 80% of the Eagles’ dropbacks ahead of Dontavion Wicks. What I really like is that this came despite Philadelphia rotating Darius Cooper and Hollywood Brown into the offense quite a bit. Speculating a bit here, but temperatures in Tennessee last week at game time were nearing 120 degrees, and I think this could the reason why we saw so much rotation. We didn’t see nearly as much of that in Week 1, when Cooper played just four snaps and Brown didn’t play, so I think there’s still some upside for Lemon’s route share to continue growing. Dallas Goedart is out for this game too. Without a clear TE1 to replace him, it opens up added target opportunities for the wideouts. I also think there could be a little bit of a squeaky-wheel element here. Lemon has had a pretty quiet start to his career, but the opportunity has been there and I expect Philadelphia to continue trying to get its first-round pick involved. The matchup is another big reason I like this. Chicago’s defense was torched through the air in Week 1, and this is a matchup where I think Philadelphia can create plenty of passing opportunities. The Eagles are 4.5-point favorites, so the game script doesn’t project ideally for passing volume, but for just three catches they don’t need a massive game environment for Lemon to obtain this number. It’s also worth noting that DeVonta Smith was banged up in practice this week with the hamstring injury that also caused him to miss time in camp. If he is limited in any way, Lemon would be a direct beneficiary. Lemon had a 2.5 reception prop last week when he went into the week with Dallas Goedart, an extremely positive game script, and behind Dontavion Wicks in the pecking order. With all of these things changing heading into week 3, this feels like a line that is slow to catch up.

@GDAWG5000 https://www.youtube.com/live/72mWg26Zt2M?is=ZlzhhB49S1boaAzK

Forgot to add 2nd unit on the regular line. So had to add another entry here.

Boost

@wheatonbrando https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-betting-playground-week-3/id1004530793?i=1000791577819

@gneiffer07 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-touchdown-show-week-3/id1004530793?i=1000791547972

Brandon’s playground Week 3 bets

From discord show last night