Ultimate Week 11 NFL Betting Guide: Picks & Predictions For Every Game

Ultimate Week 11 NFL Betting Guide: Picks & Predictions For Every Game article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Bill Belichick, Deshaun Watson, Josh Jacobs

  • See our staff's betting picks and predictions for every NFL Week 11 game.
  • We'll analyze the betting odds for Patriots-Eagles, Texans-Ravens and more.

Deshaun Watson vs. Lamar Jackson. The Patriots vs. Eagles. And big underdogs coming off straight-up upsets.

Our experts are here to help you find the best betting angles for Week 11. Here are all the games they’ll hit on:

  • Jets at Redskins: 1 p.m. ET
  • Jaguars at Colts: 1 p.m. ET
  • Bills at Dolphins: 1 p.m. ET
  • Cowboys at Lions: 1 p.m. ET
  • Texans at Ravens: 1 p.m. ET
  • Falcons at Panthers: 1 p.m. ET
  • Saints at Buccaneers: 1 p.m. ET
  • Broncos at Vikings: 1 p.m. ET
  • Cardinals at 49ers: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • Patriots at Eagles: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Bengals at Raiders: 4:25 p.m. ET

See how they’re betting all 11, complete with analysis of the biggest matchups and much more. (Including picks for every game.)


Jets at Redskins Betting Odds

  • Odds: Redskins -1.5
  • Over/Under: 38.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

All odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.

Should the Washington Redskins really be 1.5-point favorites against the New York Jets? The public doesn’t seem to think so, with a majority backing the Jets to cover.

Our experts offer their opinion and make their picks in the following preview, complete with key matchup info and more.

Jets-Redskins Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Jets

Once again, the Jets have listed an absurd amount of players on their injury report.

In Week 10, every player who was limited in practice (with the exception one) ended up playing. If that trend continues, it’s safe to assume the players who continue to miss practice will be the ones with the highest chances of being inactive. That includes center Ryan Kalil (knee/elbow), cornerback Darryl Roberts (calf) along with linebackers C.J. Mosley (groin) and Brandon Copeland (hip/thumb).

Adrian Peterson (toe) was downgraded to a missed practice on Thursday, but the Redskins are saying it was just a rest day. More notably, Paul Richardson (hamstring) and Chris Thompson (toe) have yet to practice. Justin Bailey

Note: All injury info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Terry McLaurin vs. Jets’ Secondary

It’s not often you’ll see a biggest mismatch in the passing game in a matchup with a total this low, but the Redskins would do well to get the ball to McLaurin.

The rookie registered 60-plus yards and a touchdown in four of his first five pro games and now gets a Jets defense allowing the seventh-most catches (127) and third-most TDs (15) to WRs. This could be particularly key since the run-happy Redskins are facing the league’s second-best run defense, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Redskins -1.5
  • Projected Total: 38

Heavy action is coming in on the Jets with 70% of the tickets and 81% of the money backing them as slight dogs as of writing (see live public betting data here). We’ll see if any sharp resistance keeps the Redskins as slight favorites. Sean Koerner

Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Terry McLaurin

PRO System Match

The Redskins are struggling offensively. Over their past three games, they’ve been held to nine or fewer points.

As a result, more than 70% of spread tickets are on the Jets as small road underdogs as of writing. While this may seem like a good time to fade the Redskins’ inconsistent offense, history suggests otherwise.

Teams that haven’t been able to put up a lot of points recently can be undervalued as teams to regress to the mean throughout the season. This is especially true against opponents that may not know their tendencies or personnel as well as their divisional rivals.

This creates an excellent first-half betting opportunity. Gamblers following this Pro System have gone 163-113-69 (59%) against the spread since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $3,611 following this strategy. John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

Expert Picks

Koerner: Redskins -1.5

There’s some sneaky value on the Redskins given that their defensive line has been on fire, ranking ninth in generating pressure at 25.5% on the season.

Sam Darnold struggles mightily when under pressure and even admitted “seeing ghosts” in the pocket against the Patriots just a few weeks ago — he ranks 30th in QB rating when facing pressure. Dwayne Haskins is just as bad under pressure, but with improved offensive line health and a Jets defense that ranks 23rd in QB pressure (21.3%), he may not face it as much as Darnold.

With Derrius Guice set to return from IR, the Redskins should employ he and Adrian Peterson for a solid one-two punch that will allow the Redskins to take the ball out of Haskins’ hands. I’m going to plug my nose and take Washington here. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Jaguars at Colts Betting Odds

  • Odds: Colts -3
  • Over/Under: 43.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Both of these teams will welcome back their Week 1 starting quarterbacks on Sunday, albeit after very different lengths of time.

Nick Foles will be under center for the Jaguars for the first time since the season-opener while Jacoby Brissett is set to return from a knee injury that sidelined him in Week 9. But which team gets the biggest boost as a result?

Our experts analyze every angle of this matchup, featuring Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a staff pick.

Jaguars-Colts Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Jaguars

The bye week did the Jaguars some good as every player on their injury report has at least been limited in practice, suggesting they’re in good shape. Most notable is Dede Westbrook (neck/shoulder), who is back to practicing in full.

It seems likely the Colts will be without T.Y. Hilton (calf) again since he hasn’t resumed practicing. As a result, they’ll roll with Zach Pascal, Chester Rogers and Marcus Johnson in 3-WR sets. Jack Doyle missed practice on Wednesday with a shoulder injury, but was able to return to limited practice on Thursday.

On a better note, Brissett (knee) has been practicing in full, and he’s expected to return this week. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Colts Run Offense vs. Jaguars Run Defense

What a difference a year makes.

In 2018, running back Marlon Mack struggled in his two divisional matchups against the Jags. In Week 10, he had 29 yards rushing on 12 carries. In Week 13, 27 yards on eight carries. No touchdowns in either game. Horrible.

But the Jags were also No. 2 in rush success rate allowed (per Sharp Football Stats). On only 41% of their carries were opposing offenses able to get adequate yardage given the down and distance.

This year, though, they rank No. 28 as they’ve allowed a 52% rush success rate. Just last week they allowed the plodding Carlos Hyde to rush for 160 yards on 19 carries. When teams want to run on them, they’ve been able to do so this season.

colts-vs-steelers-odds-picks-predictions-week 9-2019
Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Marlon Mack, Jacoby Brissett

As it happens, the Colts are a running team: They’re No. 5 with a 46.2% run play rate. And they run well, ranking No. 8 with a 51% rush success rate. On top of that, the Jags have a funnel defense that ranks No. 10 against the pass but No. 24 against the run (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric). The Colts will likely be incentivized to run.

With Brissett back in the starting lineup, the Colts offense should be better than it has been in his absence over the past two weeks, and with that improvement, the Colts will likely have longer drives and and rely more on the running game.

And I expect Brissett’s presence will actually make the running game more efficient, as the Jags won’t be able to stack the box as readily. In Brissett’s full games in Weeks 1-8, the Colts were No. 5 in rush success rate (53%).

Mack and the Colts could grind their way to 150 yards against the Jags. Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread with Brissett Starting: Colts -2.5
  • Projected Total with Brissett Starting: 43

Foles is set to make his return after a Week 1 collarbone injury that sent him to the IR.

The market docked the Jaguars roughly 6.5 points for the drop-off from Foles to Gardner Minshew, but Minshew ended up being much better than anyone could have anticipated, going 4-4 as the starter. He was so impressive that many wondered whether the Jags should stick with him even when Foles was healthy enough to play again.

I’m boosting the Jaguars’ rating by only a half-point with Foles’ return. If he struggles in the coming weeks, we may see Minshew get re-inserted. Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Mike Randle: Colts -3

The Colts were a different team without Brissett. Since he left in the second quarter of Week 9, they’ve lost to Pittsburgh and were upset at home by a Dolphins team that entered the game 1-7.

However, Brissett is scheduled to return, which will force the Jacksonville defense to avoid loading up against the run. The Jaguars ranks 24th in run defense DVOA, providing Mack with his best matchup since their 19-13 win at Kansas City in Week 5.

The Jaguars will also need to limit their turnovers, ranking fifth-worst with eight lost fumbles this season. They’re hoping for a boost from Foles, especially after Minshew was responsible for four turnovers in their 26-3 loss to Houston in London, a team Jacksonville normally plays very well.

Indy has lost two straight, but with Brissett likely to return in a critical home matchup, I like the Colts -3 and would bet this line up to -4.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Bills at Dolphins Betting Odds

  • Odds: Bills -6.5
  • Over/Under: 40.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

The Dolphins are the unlikely owners of the AFC East’s longest winning streak (two) and now welcome Buffalo to Hard Rock Stadium for a divisional battle. Will Ryan Fitzpatrick and Co. log their third straight win against Josh Allen and the Bills?

Our experts think that the Dolphins may be getting a little too much love from Vegas this weekend — remember that this was the team that many team thought would go winless.

Bills-Dolphins Injury Report

The Bills added tight end Dawson Knox (knee) to the injury report, but have said he’s expected to play on Sunday. They also added one of their best pass-rushers in Jerry Hughes (groin) to the report, but he still got in a limited practice on Thursday, suggesting he should be OK for Sunday.

It looks like the Dolphins could get safety Reshad Jones (chest) back after he returned to full practice, but they’re still expected to be without cornerback Ken Webster since he still isn’t practicing with his ankle issue. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Bills Pass Defense vs. Dolphins Pass Offense

Fitzpatrick has injected some life into the Dolphins’ listless offensive attack, but they still rank 31st in passing efficiency on the year, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA.

It’s unfortunate that the Dolphins aren’t equipped to take advantage of Buffalo’s 27th-rated run defense, because their pass game will struggle against Sean McDermott’s sound unit against the pass, which is ranked ninth in DVOA and has given up only seven passing touchdowns all season. Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Bills -7.5
  • Projected Total: 39

The Dolphins are on a two-win streak and their odds of getting the first overall pick in 2020 has taken a bit of a hit as a result. They’re playing over their heads right now and are still very much a bad team on paper — they’re still the lowest ranked team in my power ratings, but have closed the gap considerably to the second-worst team (the Bengals). In fact, there’s a scenario in which the Dolphins could be a favorite.

Miami hosts Cincinnati in Week 16 in a matchup that could have major implications for the 2020 draft. Right now I would have the Dolphins as a 1.5-point home favorites assuming Fitzpatrick starts. If Josh Rosen were to start that matchup, it would move the line to Bengals -1.

While I’m showing about 1.5 points of value on the Bills this week, I’ve tried to avoid betting on Miami games. There ‘s so much volatility in projecting a team like the Dolphins that it makes it tough to bet against them or back them. This is a pass for me. Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Stuckey: Bills -3 1H/-6 Game Split

Listeners of our podcast know I haven’t been a fan of the Bills lately. I’ve thought they’ve been overvalued in the market in recent weeks after racking up wins against subpar competition. And that sentiment paid off against the Eagles then the Browns.

Well, I’ve done a 180 — I think the Bills actually have value at anything under a touchdown this week.

I’m not sure where this Dolphins love is coming from. This is still one of the worst rosters we’ve seen in the NFL in quite some time. I didn’t drastically change my view of them after wins over the Colts’ third-string QB and the dumpster fire that is the Jets.

If you recall, just a few weeks back, the Bills were 17-point home favorites against Miami. Even if we assume three points for home-field advantage for both teams (I have Miami’s as less), that would imply this line should be about Bills -11. Now, the market has soured on the Bills a little and has seen some effort out of a Dolphins team many thought wouldn’t win a game, so I get adjustments were made. But going under a TD here is too much in my opinion.

Plus, this is actually a great matchup for the Bills, whose pass defense allows only 5.6 yards per pass attempt (third in the NFL) and doesn’t allow anything deep through the air.

Like Chris said earlier, where the Bills are vulnerable is on the ground: They’re allowing 4.5 yards per carry (21st in league). But Miami isn’t capable of exploiting that weakness with a horrendous offensive line and a rushing attack that averages a league-worst 3.1 yards per carry. Just how bad is that mark? In order to find a team that averaged fewer than that, you’d have to go all the way back to the year 2000, when the Chargers averaged a flat 3.0 yards per pop. Terrell Fletcher led the Chargers in rushing that season with 384 yards on the ground for a team that had Ryan Leaf and Jim Harbaugh start games at QB.

Yes, that long ago. And only two teams have finished a season at exactly 3.1 since.

Miami has also lost its two best backs from the start of the season with the trade of Kenyan Drake to the Cardinals and the suspension of Mark Walton.

In the first meeting in Buffalo, the Dolphins did actually put up 21 points and 381 yards in a 10-point loss. But let’s take a look at who did the damage:

  • Leading rusher: Mark Walton
  • Second-leading rusher: Kenyan Drake
  • Leading receiver: Preston Williams

All three will not be available on Sunday.

Buffalo is just so much better in the trenches and significantly more talented on both sides of the ball. That should ultimately be the difference in what sets up as a good matchup for the Bills defense. Allen can do just enough to cover this number, which I like at anything below a touchdown for the full game.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Cowboys at Lions Betting Odds

  • Odds: Cowboys -6.5
  • Over/Under: 47
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Editor’s note: The Cowboys-Lions guide has been updated to reflect the news of the Lions ruling out Matthew Stafford.

Sportsbooks finally posted odds following the news that Matthew Stafford would miss his second straight game, which means Jeff Driskel will get the start again. So what do you need to know about this matchup?

You’ll find Sean Koerner’s projected odds and more analysis below.

Cowboys-Lions Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Cowboys

The Cowboys continue to limit Amari Cooper (knee/ankle) in practice, but there likely isn’t anything to worry about as of now. A lot of their offensive line is banged up, but it’s typically normal for them to limit La’El Collins and Zack Martin. However, left guard Connor Williams (knee) is out indefinitely.

The biggest news around this game is Stafford (back), who has been ruled for the second straight week.

Ty Johnson (concussion) returned to limited practice, but he hasn’t cleared the concussion protocol yet. We’ll have a clearer picture on his status on Friday. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Cowboys RBs vs. Lions LBs

Running back Ezekiel Elliott is in the midst of a down season. He has career-low marks with 23.4 opportunities (carries plus targets), 22.7 touches and 108.9 scrimmage yards per game. In a vacuum, those numbers are great. But within the context of Elliott’s career, those numbers are disappointing.

Fortunately for him, he gets to face the Lions this week.

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott (21), Lions DT A’Shawn Robinson (91).

They are atrocious at defending the position, ranking No. 28 in run defense (per Pro Football Focus) and No. 25 in pass defense against running backs (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric).

With 168 yards and 1.56 touchdowns allowed to opposing backfields, the Lions have been the league’s second-most exploitable team for the position this year.

Much of the blame belongs to linebackers Christian Jones and Jarrad Davis, who are remarkably substandard at nearly everything they do (based on their PFF grades):

  • Jarrad Davis: 32.9 overall | 46.0 run defense | 43.3 tackling | 29.9 coverage
  • Christian Jones: 43.4 overall | 40.7 run defense | 55.8 tackling | 41.4 coverage

There are some remarkably poor linebacking duos currently in the league, but the Davis and Jones tag team might be the worst one.

On the ground and through the air, Davis and Jones match up extremely poorly with Elliott. Even explosive backup running back Tony Pollard could turn these linebackers to dust.

Even though the Cowboys are less of a run-focused team than they used to be, Zeke and Pollard still look like candidates to combine for close to 200 yards. — Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Cowboys -6
  • Projected Total: 47

Stafford will miss his second straight game after snapping a streak of 136 consecutive regular-season games — what was the second-longest active streak — so I’ve docked the Lions’ power rating to account for Driskel starting.

Texans at Ravens Betting Odds

  • Odds: Ravens -4
  • Over/Under: 51.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Week 11 is gifting us a battle between two young electric MVP candidates. But who has the edge?

Our experts break down every angle of Sunday’s showdown featuring Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, complete with picks.

Ravens-Texans Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Texans

The Texans are looking rather healthy coming off the bye. Will Fuller (hamstring) has resumed practicing in a limited fashion, which is a positive sign for his overall status, though I’d still consider him questionable for Sunday.

Marquise Brown continues to have ankle issues after he was downgraded on Thursday to a missed practice. That said, the Ravens have done this multiple times throughout the season with his practice participation. We’ll have a better idea of his status on Friday.

Also notable is defensive lineman Michael Pierce (ankle), who missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Both Rush Offenses vs. Rush Defenses

Look, the Ravens offense is always going to be a major mismatch for opposing defenses the first time they see it. That said, the Texans will benefit from extra prep ahead of this AFC clash in Charm City. They’ve also been very good against the run and in covering tight ends — two musts against the Ravens.

Now, their secondary has been nothing short of a disaster, which Lamar Jackson can exploit. But the Ravens offense starts with the run and tight ends.

I do think the Texans will take a step back in their prowess against the run (and their pass rush) with the loss of J.J. Watt — who is worth more to the spread than any defender in the league for my money — but Houston should still be solid defending opponents’ ground games.

That said, I think the biggest mismatch here will come when the Texans are running the ball: The Ravens defense ranks inside the top 10 against the pass in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, but bottom five against the run.

Carlos Hyde
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carlos Hyde

I personally have the Ravens defense currently rated in the top three against the pass with the addition of Marcus Peters and the return of Jimmy Smith, giving them one of the best trio of corners in the league with safety Earl Thomas looming in the back. They also blitz as much as any team when their secondary is healthy, forcing quarterbacks to get the ball out quickly against tight man coverage (or disguised Cover 3).

That combination should give Baltimore one of the NFL’s most formidable pass defenses the rest of the way if they stay healthy in the defensive backfield.

However, as I alluded to, I do have serious concerns about their run defense — especially when neither Brandon Williams nor Michael Pierce are healthy, and it looks like Pierce may miss time after leaving last week’s game early.

I’ll give credit to the Ravens’ front office for recognizing the weakness then going out to sign Domata Peko and Justin Ellis as reinforcements along the defensive line. But how much does Peko have left in the tank, and how much can either give this Sunday with Pierce presumably sidelined? It’s clearly the biggest question mark in Baltimore.

The Ravens are well-coached and have an elite, unique offense with a great offensive line. They also have outstanding special teams and a smothering pass defense. But can they stop the run? That may be the key to season.

We’ll find out against Houston’s very solid rushing attack led by Carlos Hyde, who has been taking advantage of the space he gets from the Texans spreading out opposing defenses with the threat of Watson and the plethora of plus Houston receivers.

If they can move the ball on the ground, they can keep Jackson off the field and get Watson into the red zone, where he’s been electrifying this season, completing more than 68% of his passes with 14 touchdowns to just one pick.

I think this game will come down to which team can better establish the run. The question is, will it be the Ravens elite rushing attack against a very good Texans run defense, or a solid Texans run defense against a vulnerable Ravens rush defense? Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Ravens -4.5
  • Projected Total: 49.5

This spread appears spot on. I’m also in alignment with this over/under but based on early-week action, I wonder whether sharps expect this to be a slower-paced, lower-scoring game than people realize. Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Chad Millman: Texans +4

My first instinct when I saw the opening line of Ravens -4.5? Uh-oh, bookmakers are gonna get taken. Wiseguys felt the same way, as they hit the 4.5 and dropped this down to 4. I bought it at the opening number, because I think it will dip a bit further before game time.

Every week it seems the public forgets that Watson has spent the past three years being insanely accurate, insanely comfortable throwing downfield and insanely good at winning or keeping games close. There is always someone overshadowing him. Last year it was Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck. This year it’s Lamar.

The truth is that the Ravens are just plain over-valued right now. Their win over the Patriots started it, but dominating the Bengals on the road as double-digit faves sealed it. There is never a better time to fade a team than when it’s got momentum and public support. And, of course, when it is playing Deshaun Watson. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Falcons at Panthers Betting Odds

  • Odds: Panthers -4.5
  • Over/Under: 49.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

The Falcons staged the biggest upset of Week 10 with a 26-9 rout of the Saints in New Orleans thanks to the return of Matt Ryan plus a standout performance from the defensive line. Now, the Falcons travel to Carolina to take on Christian McCaffrey and the Panthers.

Our experts break down what to expect from this matchup, complete with picks.

Falcons-Panthers Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Panthers

The Panthers should be getting cornerback James Bradberry (groin) back after he returned to full practice on Thursday. However, they could potentially be down two other corners as Donte Jackson (hip) and Ross Cockrell (quad) haven’t practiced his week.

Meanwhile, the Falcons are expected to be without two heavily-utilized offensive pieces in Devonta Freeman (foot) and Austin Hooper (knee). Running back Brian Hill saw 21 touches last week after Freeman’s early exit. I’d expect more of the same against a Panthers defense that struggles to defend the run. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Panthers WR DJ Moore vs. Falcons Secondary

The Falcons defense has had trouble slowing down opponent’s top wide receivers. They’ve given up six-plus catches and/or 90-plus yards to every top wide receiver they’ve faced since Week 3.

Moore has posted at least six catches for 70 yards in six of nine games this season and is a good bet to extend that to 7-of-10.Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Panthers -5
  • Projected Total: 50

The Falcons were able to stun New Orleans in part because they were much better than their 1-7 record indicated. And they’re still better than their 2-7 record indicates as their Pythagorean expected record is closer to 3-6.

With the line dropping from -7 to -4 despite 65% of the action coming in on the Panthers as of writing (see live public betting data here), it looks likely that sharps are backing the Falcons again.

I’m going to pass on the Falcons for now given how many key offensive players they’re losing with Hooper and Freeman suffering injuries that will sideline them for multiple weeks. Not to mention they traded Mohamed Sanu to the Patriots a few weeks ago. Their big-name WRs Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are healthy, but the cluster of injuries to key role players shouldn’t be overlooked — it’ll make it easier for the Panthers to game plan a way to slow Atlanta down. Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

Since 2003, the under is 820-726-29 (53.0%) in division games. Unders have been a smart play in division games as increased familiarity between teams creates a lower-scoring environment.

It may seem obvious to some bettors, but it’s been more profitable to take the under in division games with high totals (more than 44 points). It’s just easier for unders to cash when more points are expected to be scored.

Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 180-109-3 (62.0%) since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $6,206 following this strategy.

The Falcons-Panthers total opened 54 and has been bet down to 49.5, an indication sharps are on the under. John Ewing

Expert Picks

Stuckey: Falcons +4.5

Out of 32 centers who have played at least 300 snaps this season, Matt Paradis ranks dead last with a 27.2 pass blocking grade from Pro Football Focus. The guard performance in Carolina has also been subpar. Really, in total, the Panthers offensive line has done a very poor job in pass protection, ranking 26th as a unit in pass-blocking efficiency.

Well, where is the strength of the Falcons defense? Up the middle, specifically in the interior defensive line and at middle linebacker. Just ask Drew Brees and the Saints, who saw the pocket get blown up consistently all last week.

Grady Jarrett and the rest of the Atlanta interior could make life miserable for Allen, who already has more turnovers than touchdown this season. He’s due for some regression if you dig a little deeper into some of his advanced metrics.

The Falcons run defense is pretty solid while their pass defense is very leaky. However, I think their front can generate enough pressure up the middle to slow down the run game and disrupt the passing game, forcing Allen into a key turnover or two.

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Atlanta Falcons running back Brian Hill (23).

I think the Falcons can establish the run like they did last week with Hill, and that was against a much better run defense than Carolina’s, which is allowing a league-high 5.2 yards per rush. The Panthers transitioned from a 4-3 base to more 3-4 this season in order to generate more of a pass rush. They have achieved that goal, but the run defense has suffered as a result.

The Panthers secondary has been great all season, but they’re dealing with a number of key injuries and may be undermanned and/or banged up against a talented wide receiving corps with Ridley and Jones.

The Falcons will miss Hooper, especially in the red zone, but I think Ryan and the running game can get it done inside the 20 against a Panthers defense that has a 70% red-zone TD percentage allowed, last in the NFL.

Bottom line: The Panthers are an average team like the Falcons, who finally showed us life again last week. To illustrate just how mediocre the Panthers are, look no further than their negative point differential — Carolina has allowed 228 points and scored 225.

I rate these teams close to even, so give me the better quarterback and anything over in Carolina. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Saints at Buccaneers Betting Odds

  • Odds: Saints -5.5
  • Over/Under: 49.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

The New Orleans Saints are coming off a stunning loss, but are they being undervalued against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Or should you fade Drew Brees and Co.?

Our experts analyze every angle of this matchup, complete with a comparison to Sean Koerner’s projected odds and picks.

Saints-Buccaneers Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Buccaneers

The Bucs’ biggest injury of note is edge defender Anthony Nelson (hamstring), who hasn’t practiced this week. Nelson is graded as one of Pro Football Focus’ best run defenders on this defense. His potential absence would be good news for the Saints’ backfield.

Cornerback Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) hasn’t resumed practicing after leaving last week’s game early. His potential absence would be great for Mike Evans, who struggled in Lattimore’s coverage earlier this season. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Saints WR Michael Thomas vs. Buccaneers CBs

Thomas leads the league with 103 targets, 86 receptions and 1,027 yards receiving. He leads all wide receivers with his unfathomable 83.5% catch rate. In terms of sheer positional dominance, he might be playing better than anyone else in the league right now.

And in this game he gets to face perhaps the league’s worst trio of cornerbacks. No team has allowed more receiving yards and touchdowns to wide receivers than the Bucs have with their marks of 210.4 and 1.67.

fantasy-football-standard-rankings-wr-week 10-2019
Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Michael Thomas

Playing inside a funnel defense that ranks No. 1 against the run but No. 27 against the pass (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA), the Bucs corners just get peppered with targets: Opposing wide receivers have a league-high 24.9 targets per game.

And here’s what’s most amazing about this matchup: As bad as the Bucs corners have been, they’ll almost certainly be worse this weekend because of personnel changes and injury issues.

No. 1 cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III was cut on Tuesday. In theory, this move could be addition by subtraction. In reality, it’s not — especially right now, because the Bucs have almost no reliable corner depth.

So Hargreaves is gone, and perimeter corner Carlton Davis (hip) missed Weeks 9-10 and did not practice on Wednesday. I doubt he plays this week. Without Hargreaves and Davis, the Bucs will start rookies Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean on the outside. Combined, they have seven full games of NFL experience.

And the situation gets worse: Slot corner M.J. Stewart (knee) also missed practice on Wednesday. If he misses the game, the Bucs will likely go with special-teamer Ryan Smith or maybe a backup safety in the slot.

As I discussed in my WR/CB matchup grades, wherever Thomas lines up, he will have a massive edge. If Thomas gets only 100 yards this week, that will be relatively disappointing. Matthew Freedman

PRO System Match

Since 2003, the under is 820-726-29 (53.0%) in division games. Unders have been a smart play in division games as increased familiarity between teams creates a lower-scoring environment.

It may seem obvious to some bettors, but it’s been more profitable to take the under in division games with high totals (more than 44 points). It’s just easier for unders to cash when more points are expected to be scored.

Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 180-109-3 (62.0%) since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $6,206 following this strategy.

A majority of bets are on this over, but history suggests the under is a smart play. John Ewing

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Saints -4
  • Projected Total: 51

The public is likely to overrate the Saints and underrate the Bucs. And sure enough, 65% of the action has come in on New Orleans as of writing (see live public betting data here), dropping the line from -6 to -5.5. Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Koerner: Buccaneers +5.5

The Saints lost straight up to the Falcons despite being 13.5-point favorites last week. It was not only a shocker that they lost, but that they got blown out 26-9 in their own building.

Before that game I had mentioned the Falcons had a ridiculous +3.1 edge in expected wins vs. actual compared to the Saints — a sign that the matchup would be much closer than their records indicated and that the market would offer value as a result. Now this week the Buccaneers have a +3.0 edge in expected wins vs. actual. A lot of this has to do with the fact the Saints are 5-0 in one-score games while the Bucs are 2-4.

Like I mentioned above, the public is overrating the Saints. Lattimore is also likely to miss, which means the Saints won’t be equipped to contain the lethal WR duo of Evans and Chris Godwin.

The Bucs +5.5 is one of my favorite plays of the week. Given that these are two higher-variance teams, I’d say the Bucs moneyline (+200 to +210) is also offering some sneaky value. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Broncos at Vikings Betting Odds

  • Odds: Vikings -10.5
  • Over/Under: 40.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

The Vikings return home to face the Broncos after an impressive Sunday Night Football victory over the Cowboys. In an attempt to pick up its fourth win of the season, Denver will trot out quarterback Brandon Allen for his second career NFL start against one of the league’s elite defenses.

Our experts anticipate a low-scoring affair between two teams led by defensive-minded head coaches.

Broncos-Vikings Injury Report

The Broncos had offensive lineman Ja’Waun James (knee) return to limited practice, but he’s had knee trouble all season, so it’s hard to gauge whether he’ll suit up. As of writing, the Broncos are fairly healthy heading into Sunday.

The Vikings, meanwhile, are in rough shape.

Head coach Mike Zimmer said Adam Thielen (hamstring) “has a chance to play” but the wide receiver hasn’t practiced this week. Additionally, defensive lineman Linval Joseph (knee) hasn’t practiced while safety Anthony Harris (groin) was downgraded to no practice on Thursday. Harris checks in as Pro Football Focus’ No. 5 safeties overall this season. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins vs. Denver QB Brandon Allen

These two teams have similar makeups and defensive-minded head coaches. But what the Broncos don’t have is a quarterback like Kirk Cousins.

The big-money 2018 free agent has taken his fair share of criticism over the years — much of it warranted — but he’s playing highly efficient football that perfectly compliments his team’s defense and run game this season. He’s second in adjusted net yards per attempt (8.41), third in Passer Rating (112.0) and fifth in interception rate (1.1%)

Allen played well in his first start for Denver, but he’s thrown all of 20 NFL passes. His lack of experience will be costly on the road against a Zimmer defense. Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Vikings -10
  • Projected Total: 40

I took advantage of the market dinging the Broncos about 5.5 points with Allen starting for the injured Joe Flacco. It was roughly 2.5 points more than it should’ve been, and it looks like the market has arrived at the same conclusion.

There doesn’t seem to be much value on the spread here, but under 40.5 could be the play.

With Thielen set to miss his third straight game, the Vikings are likely to use a very run-heavy and conservative game plan to put Denver away. The Broncos are likely going to limit Allen as much as they can while leaning on their strong running game and defense to keep them in the game. Action has been pouring on the over with 84% of the tickets as of writing (see live public betting data here), but the money has been a near 50/50 split, so it’s likely the sharps are leaning toward the under here as well. Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Matthew Freedman: Vikings -10.5

This spot is very similar to the Vikings-Redskins matchup in Week 8. While Minnesota didn’t cover in that game, it’s worth revisiting.

I’ve been impressed with the Vikings this season, and under Zimmer (since 2014), they’ve offered a strong return on investment in several different scenarios.

They have been a profitable regular-season team to back:

  • At home: 30-13-1, 35.1% ROI
  • As favorites: 34-17-1, 29.3% ROI
  • Outside of division: 41-15-1, 41.8% ROI

These trends make sense within the context of who Zimmer is as a coach and what kind of team the Vikings are.

Zimmer is a risk-averse, process-oriented, defense-directed “manager” (for lack of a better word). As a result, the Vikings are a disciplined team that doesn’t often make big mistakes.

They don’t waste the natural advantage they have at home and they don’t play down to the level of their underdog opponents.

This week, the Vikings are in a “solar eclipse” spot with all of Zimmer’s historical edges lining up. As non-divisional home favorites, the Vikings are 19-3-1 against the spread (66% ROI).

Even though the Broncos are coming off their bye, I still doubt they will be able to keep this game competitive given their dearth of offensive talent.

I bet this at -10, but would take it at -10.5. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Cardinals at 49ers Betting Odds

  • Odds: 49ers -10
  • Over/Under: 45
  • Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

The San Francisco 49ers were the last of the undefeated teams to fall this season, but they’ll have a chance to bounce back against the division rival Arizona Cardinals this Sunday.

The 49ers are one of three teams favored by double digits in Week 11, but bettors are siding heavily with the Cardinals to cover with 79% of tickets backing them (see live public betting data here).

Can Kyler Murray and Co. stay within the number on the road?

Our experts break down every angle of this matchup, featuring Sean Koerner’s projected odds and staff picks.

Cardinals-49ers Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Cardinals

The Cardinals put out a lengthy injury report, but David Johnson wasn’t on it, though Chase Edmonds (hamstring) was. It looks like Arizona will be rolling with DJ and Kenyan Drake in the backfield while Edmonds nurses his hamstring.

The 49ers are a disaster on the injury front given Matt Breida (ankle), George Kittle (knee) and Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) all haven’t practiced this week. It sounds like Breida and Kittle are expected to be out, but the 49ers are still holding out hope that Sanders can suit up. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Cardinals Rush Offense vs. 49ers Rush Defense

The Cardinals almost upset the 49ers two weeks ago, losing 28-25 at home.

While the Niners have the second-best defense in the league, they’ve been vulnerable against the run. In their 27-24 loss to Seattle, they allowed 147 yards at 4.3 yards per carry.

More importantly, the Cardinals gashed the 49ers in their first meeting for a total of 153 rushing yards and an average of 6.7 yards per carry. The newly-acquired Drake rushed for 110 yards at 7.3 yards per carry.

Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Arizona Cardinals running back Kenyan Drake (41).

Besides Drake, the Cardinals will also benefit from the return of Johnson, who has four weeks of RB10 performances or better.

The 49ers rank first among all teams in pass defense efficiency (yes, even ahead of the Patriots). The loss of linebacker Kwon Alexander to a torn pectoral muscle is also a huge absence for the 49ers.

Murray totaled 324 passing yards and three touchdowns last week at Tampa Bay. The Cardinals’ spread offense creates wide running lanes for their versatile backs.

The Niners will need to greatly improve against a Cardinals running game that found season-best success in their first matchup. — Mike Randle

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: 49ers -12
  • Projected Total: 45.5

These two teams met just two weeks ago. The 49ers managed to pull off the win in what turned out to be a 28-25 nail-bitter, then followed that up with their first defeat of 2019. But I expect the Niners to bounce back this week.

The public appears to be backing the Cardinals with the majority of tickets coming in on Arizona. We’ll need to see if Sanders and/or Kittle are able to suit up. If they’re both active, I’d set the 49ers at -12.5, but if they’re both ruled out, I’d set it at -11.5. — Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

Since 2003, the under is 820-726-29 (53.0%) in division games. Unders have been a smart play in division games as increased familiarity between teams creates a lower-scoring environment.

It may seem obvious to some bettors, but it has been more profitable to take the under in division games with high totals (more than 44 points). It is just easier for unders to cash when more points are expected to be scored.

Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 180-109-3 (62.0%) since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $6,206 following this strategy.

A slight majority of bets are on this over, but history suggests the under is a smart play. John Ewing

Expert Picks

John Ewing: Cardinals +10

San Francisco suffered its first loss in Week 10, but oddsmakers expect the 49ers to bounce back against the Cardinals, having initially opened Kyle Shanahan’s team as 14-point favorites.

On the surface this matchup favors the 8-1 Niners, but there are a few reasons to think this line is inflated. For starters, it’s historically been profitable to fade teams that have been easily covering the spread.

The 49ers have covered the spread on average by more than five points per game, making them a match for this system that has gone 389-312-21 (56%) against the spread since 2003.

Then there’s the Niners defense, which is second in Football Outsiders’ DVOA but has been susceptible to the run — San Francisco has allowed 4.6 yards per carry (24th). This matchup sets up well for a Cardinals team that’s averaged 4.9 yards per attempt this season.

Our simulations project the 49ers to win on average by nine points. Sharp bettors agree as they’ve bet this line down to San Francisco -12. Even though the line has moved, there is still value on the Cardinals. I would bet Arizona down +10.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Patriots at Eagles Betting Odds

  • Odds: Patriots -3.5
  • Over/Under: 45
  • Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Everyone loves a bounce-back spot, right? That’s doubly true when you’re talking about the Patriots. So it’s no surprise to see 80% of the betting tickets landing on New England at the time of writing (you can find live betting data here), making the Pats the most popular bet of Week 11.

They’re facing an Eagles team that’s also coming off a bye and one that has failed to meet expectations with a 5-4 record. With that said, Philly is still very much alive in the NFC East, so it will be plenty motivated to secure a home upset.

Our analysts detail the matchups, metrics and picks to know before placing your bets.

Patriots-Eagles Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Patriots

Both teams are coming off a bye, but during the bye week, the Eagles placed wide receiver DeSean Jackson (abdomen) on injured reserve. To make matters worse, WR Alshon Jeffery (ankle) hasn’t practiced this week, suggesting that he’s trending toward missing this game.

For once, the Patriots have kept their injury report to a minimum. Everyone on their report was listed as limited, indicating they’re likely trending toward playing, especially since they’re coming off a bye week. Justin Bailey

Darren Rovell loves the Patriots to cover against the Eagles this week. PointsBet is giving everyone in New Jersey boosted odds to Fade Rovell and bet on the Eagles’ spread at +110. New customers get an exclusive promotion: Deposit $50, bet with $150. No strings attached. No rollover required.

Biggest Mismatch

Patriots secondary vs. Eagles wide receivers

The Eagles sorely miss Jackson, who would gave their offense some much-needed explosiveness. And more importantly, just the threat of Jackson would open up so much underneath for other receivers and tight ends who are now getting more attention with defenses not too worried about the wideouts on the outside — and rightfully so.

Jeffery looks as if he’s lost a step, and he might not even play on Sunday. That could leave a starting wide receiver trio of Mack Hollins (who hasn’t caught a ball in eons), Nelson Agholor and the recently signed Jordan Matthews. Yikes.

As I’ve said all season, for my money, the Patriots have the best secondary in the NFL. Led by lockdown CB Stephon Gilmore, they have three-plus corners who are capable of locking down receivers in man coverage on the outside and an outstanding group of safeties.

fantasy defense rankings-week 6-2019
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Stephon Gilmore, Jason McCourty

You may even see Gilmore match up on Eagles TE Zach Ertz if safety Devin McCourty doesn’t. Bill Belichick should have full confidence in his secondary to lock down on the outside and bring immense pressure with plenty of Cover 0 (no safety over the top).

Unlike their last game against Baltimore, they don’t have to be concerned about Lamar Jackson escaping the pocket and can blitz as normal.

Don’t expect many explosive plays from the Eagles through the air on Sunday: New England has allowed a league-low 17 pass plays of more than 20 yards on the season, and Philly’s offense only has 27 such plays this season, which is tied with the Broncos for 23rd in the NFL. Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Patriots -3.5
  • Projected Total: 45.5

This is the most fascinating line of Week 11. I knew this game would likely open at -3.5, and as I always say, a 3.5-point line is one of the easiest to gauge sharp action on. Despite 80% of the tickets coming in on the Patriots, the line hasn’t budged. It’s very likely due to the Eagles being backed heavily by the sharps. Books that don’t welcome sharp action have moved this line up to Patriots -4.

We saw the blueprint to beat the Patriots in their Week 9 loss to the Ravens. No, I’m not talking about Carson Wentz using his rushing ability the same way Jackson can — we all know that isn’t possible. I’m talking about how the Ravens utilized 3-TEs to attack the Patriots’ pass defense. It seemed like a smart way to avoid the shutdown coverage from their secondary and top Gilmore. We could see the Eagles use a similar approach with their two stud TEs, Ertz and Dallas Goedert.

Take the points with the home dog. Sean Koerner

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

fantasy-football-standard-rankings-te-week 3-2019
Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Zach Ertz

Expert Picks

Stuckey: Under 44.5

Piggybacking off of my analysis above, I think the Eagles have figured out they need to be a rush-first offense that controls the clock and keeps opposing offenses off the field, especially ones with competent quarterbacks who can exploit their vulnerable secondary. (Philly has been one of the slowest teams in the NFL from a pace perspective over the past two seasons.)

The Eagles’ rushing offense hasn’t been flashy by any stretch, but they have an excellent offensive line that can run block as well as any unit in the league. Per Pro Football Focus, the Eagles have the highest run-blocking grade in the NFL.

And using that same PFF measure from above, the Patriots’ run defense ranks 24th in the league. The Eagles should generate a push up front and convert on most short-yardage situations on the ground against the weakest part of the Patriots team. That should keep the clock moving. However, even when they put some long drives together, I don’t see them having much success in the red zone.

eagles-bills-betting-odds-pick-preview-nfl-week 8-2019
David Berding-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carson Wentz

Now, when the Patriots have the ball, I know they are always going to be one of the fastest teams in the league from a pace perspective with Tom Brady at the helm but this offense just isn’t right currently. They’ve dealt with an insane amount of turnover at tight end and receiver, which has thrown off the timing of the offense. And injuries along the offensive line and at fullback have slowed the running game down.

Brady will get his, as always, especially against a poor set of Eagles corners but this isn’t as explosive of a Patriots offense as we’re used to seeing. Can it be? Sure and it probably will once it gets the timing down and the offensive line comes together even more, which you can bank on with one of the best O-line coaches in the biz.

But for now, I think the Eagles’ dominant defensive line can completely kill the run game and get pressure on Brady, which is the only way you can really contain him.

I also think the Patriots win this game, which means I think they’ll have a lead in the second half. And while they always play fast in the first half, they tend to slow it way down in the second half with leads.

I don’t see much value in the spread, but the situation just screams Pats. Belichick has obviously been money against the spread off of a bye. No surprise there. And no surprise that Brady has been awesome ATS after a loss. But what might surprise you is how dominant Tom Terrific has been against the number after suffering a rare loss.

As a favorite of a TD or less (or an underdog), Brady is a ridiculous 28-3 ATS in his career. That’s better than 90%, covering by an absolutely absurd average margin of over 10 points per game. Be very afraid of the Patriots off a loss (and bye) with memories of the Super Bowl loss still on their minds (as Brady mentioned on his radio show this week).

As I said, I don’t see much value in the spread, so I can’t bet it pregame out of principle but will be looking for a good live Pats spot if they give up an early score first.

I will, however, be taking a piece of the under pregame but I’m going to wait to see where the market goes as I’d like to have 45 or better if possible.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Bengals at Raiders Betting Odds

  • Odds: Raiders -10.5
  • Over/Under: 48.5
  • Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel:  CBS

Not only do the Cincinnati Bengals have the worst record at 0-9, but they also have one of the worst records against the spread at 3-6. And now they’re double-digit underdogs against the Oakland Raiders.

But could this be one of the weeks they cover?

Our experts preview the biggest mismatch, make their picks and more.

Bengals-Raiders Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Raiders

It appears the Bengals will be without A.J. Green (ankle) with his continued absence from practice. Additionally, Geno Atkins was downgraded to a missed practice on Thursday with a knee issue. This wouldn’t be ideal for a defense that already ranks almost dead last in every category.

Josh Jacobs continue to pop on the Raiders’ injury report with a shoulder injury, but it hasn’t slowed him down at all. He should be ready to go in this sublime matchup. Safety Lamarcus Joyner looks like the most likely to sit out after his downgrade on Thursday. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Raiders Running Backs vs. Bengals Linebackers

The Bengals are so bad against running backs that both Jacobs and DeAndre Washington are popping this week in our FantasyLabs Models even though Washington hasn’t had more than six carries in any game this season.

The Bengals are No. 29 in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA. They’re at their worst in the intermediate range of the field, where they rank No. 31 with 1.50 second-level yards allowed per run. Once opposing backs get 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, Bengals linebackers have been incapable of limiting yardage.

To make matters worse, the Bengals are No. 31 in pass defense DVOA against running backs. Last year, they were also No. 31.

On the ground or through the air, they can’t stop anyone.

Linebackers Nick Vigil and Preston Brown are especially to blame for the Bengals’ generosity to opposing backs, and that’s reflected in their Pro Football Focus grades.

  • Nick Vigil: 48.7 overall | 44.7 run defense | 56.2 coverage
  • Preston Brown: 44.1 overall | 41.1 run defense | 52.0 coverage

The Bengals just waived Brown and will now likely use rookie Germaine Pratt in his place. Given that Pratt has a 34.1 PFF grade with marks of 56.0 in run defense and 34.9 in coverage, he’s hardly an upgrade.

As for Jacobs, he has an above-average 52% rush success rate and solid 70% catch rate. He’s averaging 104.8 scrimmage yards per game, which is a high mark for a rookie.

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oakland Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28).

In victories, that number has jumped up to 117, and Jacobs could get a lot of usage as a double-digit home favorite.

As for Washington, he could actually have a decent game: The Bengals are so bad that a number of non-lead backs have gone off against them.

  • Raheem Mostert (Week 2): 13-83-0 rushing | 3-68-1 receiving, four targets
  • Jeff Wilson (Week 2): 10-34-2 rushing
  • T.J. Yeldon (Week 3): 8-30-0 rushing | 2-19-0 receiving, three targets
  • Jaylen Samuels (Week 4): 10-26-1 rushing | 8-57-0 receiving, eight targets
  • Chase Edmonds (Week 5): 8-68-1 rushing | 3-18-0 receiving, four targets
  • Darrel Henderson (Week 8): 11-49-0 rushing | 2-20-0 receiving, three targets

If Washington pitched in with 50 yards and a touchdown against a linebacking unit this bad, would it really be surprising?

In total, Jacobs and Washington could combine for 150 yards and two touchdowns against this Vigil- and Brown-shackled Bengals defense. — Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Raiders -10
  • Projected Total: 48.5

Ryan Finley was a disaster in his first start last week. But in his defense, he had to face a red-hot Ravens defense, and the Raiders will be a much easier matchup so we could see him bounce back.

The Bengals have a +2.9 edge in expected wins vs. actual compared to the Raiders, so we could be underrating Cincinnati and overrating Oakland here.

It may be worth nibbling on Bengals +10.5, which is a lean for me here. — Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Stuckey: Over 48.5

I’ve been screaming about Raiders overs for the past month-plus and they’ve continued to cash.

I still don’t think the market has fully adjusted to Raiders totals as I consistently have them a point or two higher. They’re my favorite over team in the NFL right now. Why? Well, they have a really good offense — maybe the most underrated in the NFL.

It all starts with their excellent offensive line, which is giving Derek Carr plenty of time in the pocket. Of the 30 NFL quarterbacks with a minimum of 200 dropbacks this season, Carr has been under pressure at the lowest rate (just north of 25%).

And he hasn’t got enough credit for how well he’s been playing. When he’s been under pressure, he’s been uber-efficient. Carr ranks first among all 30 of those qualified quarterbacks when under pressure in the following categories:

  • Completion percentage: 62.5%
  • Adjusted completion percentage: 82.4%
  • Passer Rating: 109.2

And the only one even in the same ballpark of that superb passer rating number when under pressure is Russell Wilson.

The Raiders also have a top rushing attack with Jacobs, who I already rate as one of the best backs in the NFL. And Carr has weapons to work with on the outside, including tight end Darren Waller.

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Darren Waller

Waller and Jacobs could have huge days against a horrendous Bengals defense that’s particularly weak at the linebacker and safety positions. Cincy ranks 31st in defending backs and tight ends in the passing game. And the Bengals’ run defense has been a sieve as they’ve allowed opposing offenses to average 5.2 yards per rush, which is tied with the Panthers for the worst mark in the league.

By many metrics, the Raiders have a top-five offense. Per Football Outsiders, the Raiders offense ranks fifth overall DVOA, which includes top-six ranks in passing and rushing. It’s potent, efficient and balanced.

Now, that’s only one part of why I’m loving Raiders overs. The other is their defense is putrid. They get absolutely no pressure on opposing quarterbacks and their secondary struggles in coverage. That’s not a formula for success in today’s NFL, even against a rookie QB like Finley.

Unlike last week against the heavy-blitzing Ravens and their elite corners, Finley should have plenty of time to throw and his receivers should get open with relative ease against the Raiders.

I’d look at over anything 49 or below in a matchup of the NFL’s two worst defenses in terms of yards per play allowed (Bengals 6.8; Raiders 6.3).

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