Week 16 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions: Your Ultimate Guide for Sunday’s Games

Week 16 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions: Your Ultimate Guide for Sunday’s Games article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Todd Gurley, Carson Wentz, Davante Adams

  • Our experts preview every Week 16 NFL game from a betting perspective.
  • Find their comprehensive guides below, featuring picks for Cowboys-Eagles and more.

Which teams still vying for playoff spots should you bank on the motivation of? How should you bet the NFC East showdown between the Cowboys and Eagles?

Our experts are here to help you find the best betting angles for Sunday’s slate of Week 16 NFL games:

  • Steelers at Jets: 1 p.m. ET
  • Saints at Titans: 1 p.m. ET
  • Panthers at Colts: 1 p.m. ET
  • Bengals at Dolphins: 1 p.m. ET
  • Ravens at Browns: 1 p.m. ET
  • Jaguars at Falcons: 1 p.m. ET
  • Giants at Redskins: 1 p.m. ET
  • Lions at Broncos: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • Raiders ar Chargers: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • Cardinals at Seahawks: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Cowboys at Eagles: 4:25 p.m. ET

See how they’re betting all 11, complete with analysis of the biggest matchups and much more.


Steelers at Jets Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Steelers -3.5
  • Over/Under: 37.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

All odds as of Thursday evening and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

The Steelers and Jets haven’t been consistent offensively all season, but their defenses stand out. With that in mind, this total opened at 38.5 and is down to 37.5 as of Thursday, with more than 80% of the betting tickets on the under. Will bettors see an old school defensive struggle?

Our experts preview the matchup, featuring matchup analysis, projected odds and a pick.

Steelers-Jets Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Steelers

The Steelers are finally trending toward being healthy after JuJu Smith-Schuster (foot) was upgraded to a full practice on Thursday. Vance McDonald (concussion) has also been practicing in full this week. Joe Haden (foot) was downgraded to a DNP on Thursday with a foot injury, so he’ll be worth monitoring as the week progresses.

I’m thankful the Jets won’t be making the playoffs because their injury report has been abysmal to look at every week. It’s another week with more than 10 names on it, but Demaryius Thomas (hamstring/knee) and offensive lineman Tom Compton (calf) are the only ones who haven’t practiced.

Robby Anderson was a mid-week addition on Thursday, sitting out due to an illness. This season, nearly everyone listed as limited has suited up. Justin Bailey

Note: All injury info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Steelers Defense vs. Jets Offense

The Jets are scoring only 20.4 points per game in Sam Darnold’s starts and rank a lowly 30th in weighted offensive DVOA (Football Outsiders’ schedule-adjusted efficiency metric that weights recent games more heavily).

The Steelers, meanwhile, are allowing just 18.5 points per game and rank second in weighted defensive DVOA. They’re also the only defense in the league to rank top-five vs. both the run (third) and pass (fifth).

The outstanding play of outside linebacker T.J. Watt and Co. has helped head coach Mike Tomlin offset his banged up offense that’s now being led by third-string quarterback Devlin “Duck” Hodges. This combination has led to an 11-3 under mark for the Steelers, including 6-0 over their past six games.

Don’t be surprised if that trend continues, as Tomlin is the most profitable road under coach among the 125 head coaches in our Bet Labs database, going under the total at a 60-42 (58.8%) clip.

A Le’Veon Bell “revenge game” is a better bet to happen at the bowling alley than against this Steeler defense. — Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Steelers -2
  • Projected Total: 37.5

The Steelers were another devastating loss last week.

The main reason I backed them was due to their strong defense and the Bills being prone to the running game. It was the perfect matchup to hide Hodges. And sure enough, the Steelers fell behind, forcing them to lean on Hodges to get back into the game — but he fell flat.

The Jets defense could have the advantage in this one as they’re stout against the run, which could force the Steelers to have Hodges drop back to pass more. It’s going to be a low scoring game, as seen by the total, which should make the key number of +3 on the Jets even more valuable to have.

This matchup also has the biggest disparity in fumble recovery luck I’ve seen this season with the Steelers recovering 4.7 more fumbles than would be expected and the Jets recovering 2.4 fewer fumbles than expected for a +7.1 net rating in favor of the Jets.

The theory behind fumble recoveries is that they’re purely random and expected to regress to league average. If both teams were to recover fumbles at a league-average rate going forward, it would imply there’s some hidden value on the Jets.

With the Jets having so many players on the injury report, I’ll wait until we get more clarity there before pulling the trigger here. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Mike Randle: Under 37.5

The Steelers’ offensive struggles have fortunately coincided with an improving defense that now rates among the league’s best. They rank third among all teams in defensive DVOA, including third-best against the run, and should have their way with a Jets offensive line that ranks among the bottom of the league in run blocking (25th) and pass blocking (30th).

Meanwhile, the most reliable unit for the Jets has been their run-blocking defense, which rates second-best overall in the league. This is a concern for a Steelers offense that will want to limit passing attempts for its third-stringer-turned-starter Hodges. In the Steelers’ last two wins, Hodges averaged just 20 attempts per game. In their 17-10 home loss to Buffalo, Hodges attempted 38 passes and threw four interceptions.

Both the Jets (11th-slowest) and Steelers (fifth-slowest) prefer a slow, methodical pace. Combining their offensive limitations with strong defenses, as well as Tomlin’s betting trend as outlined by Raybon above, I’m siding with the under, with the first team to 20 points as the likely victor.

Randle is  is 238-231-5 (50.7%%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

Saints at Titans Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Saints -3
  • Over/Under: 50.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

The Saints are getting plenty of love this week with more than 70% bettors backing them to cover the short spread against the Titans. This matchup has also garnered 65% of the tickets wagered on the total as of Thursday. Will bettors get a repeat of last weekend?

Our experts preview the matchup, featuring matchup analysis, projected odds and a pick.

Saints-Titans Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Both teams are banged up

Adam Humphries (ankle) continues to sit out of practice, so I wouldn’t expect him to play. I’d assume Corey Davis (ankle) and Derrick Henry (hamstring) will be ready to go even though Henry was downgraded to no practice on Thursday.

Henry didn’t practice last week, but still managed to suit up. He may be headed for another questionable tag with the mid-week downgrade. Adoree Jackson (foot) was also downgraded to no practice on Thursday.

The Saints are healthy on offense, and offensive lineman Andrus Peat has finally resumed practicing after he broke his arm. He may not suit up this week, but I’d imagine he’ll be ready to go for the playoffs.

Other non-skill players to monitor would be safeties Von Bell (knee) and C.J. Gardner-Johnson, along with offensive lineman Larry Warford (knee). Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Saints Pass Offense vs. Titans Pass Defense

Since returning from injury in Week 8, Drew Brees has completed 76.3% of his passes for an average of 291.3 yards, 2.7 touchdowns and 0.3 interceptions. Unsurprisingly, the Saints are No. 1 in pass success rate since Brees’ return (per Sharp Football Stats).

And over the past two games, Brees has an 83.9% completion rate and 328 yards and 4.5 touchdowns per game. Brees and the Saints’ passing offense are in fine form.

The Titans have a respectable defense, but it’s a total funnel, ranking No. 5 against the run but No. 22 against the pass (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric).

On top of that, perimeter cornerbacks Malcolm Butler (wrist, IR) and Jackson (foot) are both injured. Jackson has missed the past two games after suffering an injury in Week 13. Butler suffered a season-ending injury in Week 9, and since then the Titans defense has ranked No. 30 in pass success rate allowed.

If Jackson is out, All-Pro wide receiver Michael Thomas is likely to match up most with backup cornerback LeShaun Sims, who has allowed a 73.9% catch rate this year.

And when not facing Sims, Thomas will get aged perimeter corner Tramaine Brock — claimed off waivers just two weeks ago — and slot corner Logan Ryan, who has allowed an NFL-high 103 targets, 72 receptions and 893 yards.

On any given snap, Thomas will dominate whomever he faces, and wide receivers Ted Ginn Jr. and Tre’Quan Smith should be able to contribute.

The Titans are Nos. 22 and 23 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends and running backs. The Titans safeties and linebackers are likely to struggle against tight end Jared Cook and running back Alvin Kamara.

Against this defense, Brees could have his third straight 300-yard, three-touchdown game. — Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Saints -1.5
  • Projected Total: 47.5

Brees had a historic performance on Monday Night Football, breaking two NFL records: Passing Peyton Manning for most career touchdowns and the highest completion percentage in a game by going 29-for-30.

It should come as no surprise that the public is all over the Saints here. Despite this lopsided action, the spread was pulled down to -2.5 earlier this week. And most books still at Saints -3 are requiring you to pay -120 to -125 of juice on the Titans at +3.

This should be a red flag that the market is inviting you to bet on the Saints, and honestly, if sports betting were as simple as betting on teams that looked really good the week before, we would all be millionaires and no sportsbook would be able to sustain itself financially.

The sharp play here is to wait and see if this number can get up to +3.5, then come in hard on the Titans. Tennessee could win this game if it keeps the ball out of Brees’ hands, which would involve giving Henry all the carries he can handle.

It makes sense to pair up the Titans +3 or +3.5 with the under 50.5. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Freedman: Over 51

The Saints have been one of the league’s most offensively potent teams for years, and since quarterback Ryan Tannehill became the starter for the Titans in Week 7, points have flowed like wine.

  • Tannehill’s starts (eight games): 30.2 points scored, 23.4 points allowed
  • Other starts (six games): 16.3 points scored, 15.3 points allowed

In Tanny’s eight starts, the over is 7-1 (72.5% ROI).

Freedman is 520-389-21 (57.2%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

Panthers at Colts Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Colts -7
  • Over/Under: 46.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

The Colts are coming off their worst loss of the season while the Panthers are debuting starting quarterback Will Grier. Who do our experts like in this battle between two reeling teams?

They preview the matchup from a betting perspective below.

Panthers-Colts Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Colts

Greg Olsen (concussion) resumed practicing in full, so he should be able to play on Sunday. Otherwise, most of the Panthers’ injuries are on the defensive side with linebackers Marquise Haynes (knee), Shaq Thompson (ankle) and Mario Addison (shoulder) all missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Curtis Samuel was also added to the injury report on Thursday with a knee injury, but he was able to get in a limited practice.

T.Y. Hilton is off the injury report for the first time in awhile, but they’re mostly banged up in the secondary with safety Malik Hooker (hand) and Kenny Moore (ankle) both sitting out early in the week. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Colts Run Offense vs. Panthers Run Defense

The Colts like to run the ball, ranking No. 6 with a 45.8% rush rate, and as significant home favorites, they seem especially likely to lean on the ground game. Against the Panthers, they should be able to have success.

The Panthers have a notable funnel defense that ranks No. 9 against the pass but No. 32 against the run (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric). The Panthers have been without run-stuffing Pro-Bowl defensive tackle Kawann Short (shoulder, IR) since Week 3, and in his absence, they have been a ground game sieve.

The Panthers have allowed a league-worst 325-1,726-23 rushing stat line this year to opposing backfield, and they are No. 31 in running back rush success rate allowed (per Sharp Football Stats).

The Colts don’t have an elite backfield, but their running backs are No. 8 in rush success rate. Specifically, the Colts are No. 6 in power success rate, and the Panthers are No. 28 in power success rate allowed.

In Marlon Mack, Jordan Wilkins and Jonathan Williams, the Colts have a trio of backs all capable of handling a full workload and picking up tough yardage, and change-of-pace option Nyheim Hines is a decent contributor in limited action. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett is an above-average runner.

With this collection of runners, the Colts could have 200 yards and two touchdowns rushing against the Panthers. Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Colts -6.5
  • Projected Total: 45.5

The Panthers have decided to move on from Kyle Allen, which means Grier will be making his NFL debut. Given Allen’s struggles of late and the uncertainty of Grier, I’m considering this more of a lateral move that shouldn’t impact the spread very much, if at all.

Grier struggled a bit in the preseason with a 6.3 yards per attempt and a two-to-three touchdown-to-interception ratio. We would have to assume he’s been able to adapt to the NFL over the past 15 weeks of practice and should be able to match Allen’s production in this offense given the talent he’s surrounded by in the passing game.

I always stress that whenever there’s a level of uncertainty in a situation like this, there’s typically more value on the moneyline. Right now the moneyline is at +260 to +270 at most books based on the +7 spread, but we can assume there’s more uncertainty in the current spread, which by default makes the moneyline inherently more valuable. Panthers +260 is a lean here. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Our staff doesn’t see value on this game right now, but that could change as lines move, so download our app to follow specific experts and action around this game.

Bengals at Dolphins Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Pick ’em
  • Over/Under: 46.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

They’re two of the worst teams in the league, which makes Sunday’s game between the Bengals and Dolphins a game (possibly) beloved by gamblers.

Our experts a battle between the Miami receivers and the Cincinnati secondary in a game that currently has no favorite. Find their picks below.

Bengals-Dolphins Injury Report

A.J. Green (ankle) still isn’t practicing, and he confirmed that he’s unlikely to play this week or in Week 17. Joe Mixon was added to their report on Thursday with a calf injury, but his limited practice suggests he may be on track to play on Sunday.

Three receivers on Miami popped up on the injury report with DeVante Parker (hip), Albert Wilson (hip) and Allen Hurns (ankle/knee) all getting in limited work on Wednesday. They’re probably on track to suit up. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Dolphins WR DeVante Parker vs. Bengals CB Willie Jackson

As I mention in my Week 16 WR/CB breakdown, the Bengals played sides with their cornerbacks early in the year. After losing No. 1 corner Dre Kirkpatrick (knee, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 7, however, they have tended to use Jackson in perimeter shadow coverage.

I understand the tactic, and Jackson’s not a bad defender, but he’s prone to allow big games, and I don’t like the matchup for him.

Just a few games ago in Week 13, Jackson shadowed Jets wide receiver Robby Anderson, who is comparable to Parker physically and in playing style, and Jackson allowed a 10-107-0 receiving stat line on 11 targets.

Jackson is exploitable, and Parker has the skills to beat him.

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: DeVante Parker

With a career-high 954 yards and eight touchdowns, Parker has finally broken out in his fifth season. Since quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick returned to the starting lineup in Week 7, Parker has averaged 80.6 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game on 8.2 targets and 5.1 receptions.

And Parker’s numbers have been even more impressive since he emerged as the team’s clear top receiver in the absence of teammate Preston Williams (knee, IR), who suffered a season-ending injury in Week 9.

In Parker’s five full games without Williams, he has averaged 105.2 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on 9.6 targets and 5.8 receptions per game. In his current form, Parker is a full-blown No. 1 receiver.

The Bengals are No. 27 in pass defense, and they are specifically No. 30 against No. 1 receivers (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric).

Against the Bengals secondary and Jackson in particular, Parker could go off with a 150-yard, multi-touchdown effort. Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Pick ‘Em
  • Projected Total: 46

I’m close to the market here, so this is a pass for me. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Freedman: Dolphins (up to -2.5)

Even with quarterback Andy Dalton back in the starting lineup, I have no respect for the 1-13 Bengals, who are No. 32 with 15.1 points per game.

In Dalton’s 11 starts, they have a point differential of -9, having allowed 25.2 points and scored just 16.2.

The Dolphins aren’t much better — they’re No. 32 with 31.1 points per game allowed — but the Dolphins are at least giving full effort and playing as if they actually care about winning.

And they have been significantly better since their Week 5 bye.

  • Weeks 1-4 (four games): -34.3 point differential, 6.5 points scored, 40.8 points allowed
  • Weeks 5-15 (10 games): -5.7 point differential, 21.5 points scored, 27.2 points allowed

After going 0-4 against the spread in September, the Dolphins are 7-3 ATS (35% ROI) since the bye week.

Freedman is 522-393-22 (57%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

Ravens at Browns Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Ravens -10
  • Over/Under: 49
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Is now the time to sell high on the Baltimore Ravens?

The public sure doesn’t think so. More than 80% of tickets and money are pouring in on Lamar Jackson and Co. to cover the 10-point spread at the Cleveland Browns.

Our experts analyze every angle of the AFC North matchup to find the best betting value.

Ravens-Browns Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Ravens

The Ravens are incredibly healthy heading into the final stretch. Offensive lineman Ronnie Stanley (concussion) was the only starter on their practice report who didn’t sit out for injury reason. But he practiced in full, so he’s clearly trending towards playing.

Per usual, Odell Beckham Jr. (groin) and Jarvis Landry (hip) are practicing in a limited fashion, but neither have missed any games due to their respective injuries. Defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson (back), meanwhile, is a new addition to the Browns’ injury report. He grades out as one their best run defenders according to Pro Football Focus, so ideally he’d suit up for this divisional game. So far, they sound optimistic about his status. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Ravens Rush Offense vs. Browns Rush Defense

In Week 4, the Ravens suffered a 40-25 loss to the Browns. This week, they’ll look to get their revenge. As double-digit favorites, they seem likely to run at the Browns for much of the game.

In a league that’s increasingly shifted toward the passing game over the past decade, the Ravens have moved into the future by turning back the clock with an old-school focus on running the ball. They’re No. 1 with 512 running plays and a 55.4% rush rate. They’re also No. 1 with 5.5 yards per carry and a 55% rush success rate (per Sharp Football Stats).

They run more and more efficiently than any other team does.

That combination of volume and efficiency is incredibly rare for a running game.

Mark Ingram-Lamar Jackson
David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mark Ingram, Lamar Jackson

With the two-headed backfield of record-setting MVP frontrunner Jackson and wingman running back Mark Ingram, the Ravens have the NFL’s best rushing duo. And supplemental backs Gus Edwards and Justice Hill are more than satisfactory.

As for the Browns, they’re No. 28 against the run in PFF’s run grade as well as Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. That’s clearly where they’re weakest.

And the Browns are without some key defenders in the run game. Defensive end Myles Garrett (suspension) is out the rest of the season. Defensive end Olivier Vernon (knee) has missed the past two games. Linebacker Christian Kirksey (chest, IR) and strong safety Morgan Burnett (Achilles, IR) are out. And slot corner Eric Murray (knee) hasn’t played since Week 8.

This defense is not anywhere close to full capability.

And it turns out the Ravens’ specific strength aligns with the Browns’ weakness. Baltimore’s offense is No. 6 in second-level yards gained per carry while Cleveland’s defense is No. 29 in second-level yards allowed: Once a runner gets past the line of scrimmage, Browns linebackers and safeties struggle to limit his yardage.

With this matchup, the Ravens could rush for 250 yards and multiple touchdowns. Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Ravens -9
  • Projected Total: 48

I’m close to this market, so this is a pass for me. Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

Unders have been a smart play in division matchups as increased familiarity between teams creates a lower-scoring environment — unders have gone 838-741-29 (53.1%) since 2003.

It may seem obvious to some bettors, but it’s been more profitable to take the under in division games with high totals (more than 44 points) — it’s just easier for unders to cash when more points are expected to be scored.

Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 190-113-3 (62.7%) since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $6,755 following this strategy.

Sharp bettors are on the under, so act quick before the line decreases. John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Browns +10

I’ll actually be at this game — I make the trip to Cleveland each year to see my Ravens. And while I’ll be rooting for them to win to lock up the AFC’s No. 1 seed, it doesn’t mean I won’t bet against them.

Money first. I have no problem separating fandom from my bets.

Bottom line: This line is just too high. I make it right around Baltimore -7.5, so the +10 is too enticing to pass. And not only is this a home dog, it’s a double-digit divisional dog, which is always enticing to me. Since 2003, double-digit dogs in division games are 124-96-6 (56.4%) against the spread for a juicy ROI of just under 9%.

This also fits my principle of selling high. The Ravens are at their peak in the market after blowing out another opponent last Thursday night.

And yes, there are plenty of reasons to love this particular matchup for the Ravens: The extra prep time. The better staff. Their ability to run the ball and to exploit the Browns’ pass defense over the middle of the field. The fact that their corners can match up with Cleveland’s wideouts and blitz more than any NFL team. And that they haven’t forgotten about the blowout loss to the Browns earlier this season — one of the Ravens’ only two defeats this season.

But at the end of the day, this comes down to value, and I think the Browns have it at 10 or higher. This is also Cleveland’s Super Bowl in what’s been a very disappointing year.

The Browns also aren’t completely dead in the playoff race. If they win out, they get in by winning the tiebreaker in a four-way tie at 8-8 with the Colts, Titans and Steelers for the final wild card spot.

That could happen if…

  • In Week 16: Jets beat Steelers, Saints beat Titans, Colts beat Panthers
  • And in Week 17: Ravens beat Steelers, Texans beat Titans, Colts beat Jaguars

I mean it’s unlikely, but not the craziest.

And don’t sleep on the fact that the Browns already saw this unique Ravens offense and the speed of Jackson.

Every week, we see the shock value of the Ravens offense, which propels them to big leads that opponents can’t overcome. But we saw how much the Chargers benefited from seeing the Ravens a second time in the postseason in 2018. And while Jackson is a much better quarterback and the defense is even better than last season, that first game should serve Cleveland well.

Nick Chubb could have a big day against a Ravens defense that has weak spots up the middle against the run. And look for Kareem Hunt out of the backfield to make things happen in the passing game when Mayfield has to get the ball out quick against the heavy-blitzing Ravens.

The Ravens also have to have a stinker eventually, right? If so, I hope it’s this week and not in the playoffs.

As always, play numbers, not teams. Go Ravens … by 3.

Stuckey is 312-251-8 (55.4%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

Jaguars at Falcons Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Falcons -7
  • Over/Under: 46.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

The Atlanta Falcons pulled off another surprising upset last week, with a 29-22 win over the 49ers in San Francisco. Now Matt Ryan and Co. are touchdown favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

So where’s the value on this matchup of teams already eliminated from playoff contention?

Our experts preview the biggest mismatch and make their pick on the spread.

Jaguars-Falcons Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Falcons

The Falcons have a lengthy injury report, but most players appear on track to play since they got in limited practices to begin the week. Julio Jones (shoulder) was one of those limited players, but he’s followed a similar protocol the past few weeks.

Gardner Minshew was added onto the Jaguars’ report with a shoulder injury, but was still able to get in limited work. They don’t seem concerned about his injury at the time of writing.

Meanwhile, D.J. Chark (foot) was ruled out in Week 15 but returned to limited practice. That’s a good sign, but I’d still consider him questionable. We’ll have a better idea of his outlook when final reports come out on Friday. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Austin Hooper vs. Jaguars Defense

The most obvious mismatch on paper is Jones against whoever lines up across from him.

Based on what we saw last week in San Francisco, Matt Ryan should target Jones until the cows come home with Calvin Ridley now out for the season. Jones caught 13 balls for two touchdowns on 20 targets against a banged up 49ers secondary while the other two receivers who saw snaps — Russell Gage and Christian Blake — combined for five catches on seven targets for 27 yards.

But you’d think Jones should get double teams throughout the game without another real receiving threat to worry about on the outside. So assuming the Jaguars defense can focus all of its attention on Jones and contain him (as much as a team can), Hooper could give a Jacksonville defense that’s very poor at linebacker and at safety fits.

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Austin Hooper

Per Football Outsiders, the Jags rank 31st against tight ends and are trending worse. Over the past three games, opposing tight ends have caught 19 balls for 241 yards and two touchdowns against Jacksonville. Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Falcons -7.5
  • Projected Total: 46.5

I’m in line with this market, so it’s a pass for me. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Jaguars +7 or Better

Even with the advantages Jones and Hooper could have against a subpar and beat up Jags defense, there are a few things to like about Jacksonville.

The Jags should be able to apply consistent pressure on Ryan with their two outstanding rushers in Yannick Ngakoue and Josh Allen off the edge and Calais Campbell up the middle. They rank fourth in adjusted sack rate and face a subpar Atlanta offensive line that ranks in the top 10 in most hurries, pressures, quarterback hits and sacks allowed.

Out of 35 quarterbacks who have taken at least 200 snaps this season, only four have been under pressure on at least 40% of snaps: Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold and Ryan.

A lot of that pressure comes from the right side, where tackle Kaleb McGary has struggled as a rookie. Per Pro Football Focus, of the 62 tackles with at least 500 snaps this season, McGary grades 55th.

The Jaguars also have the more reliable punter and kicker, both of whom were named alternates to the Pro Bowl. Logan Cooke leads the NFL in net punting while Josh Lambo has been almost automatic at 28-for-29, including 9-for-10 from beyond 40. Atlanta, meanwhile, ranks 30th in net punting and has used four punters in addition to two field goal kickers.

That special teams edge could end up getting the Jags inside what I think is an inflated number as a result of Atlanta’s upset of San Fran.

That win is the primary reason I’m fading the Falcons. This is my favorite situational spot of Week 16 as they’ve consistently flopped in this spot. Not only could they potentially come out flat at home — where they haven’t been great — but there’s also a high-risk of being underprepared against an AFC opponent once again.

Dan Quinn is just 4-16 against the spread against AFC teams, including 14 (!) straight non-covers. Yes, he’s 0-14 in his past 14 meetings against AFC opponents. And in those games, he’s gone just 3-11 straight up.

Also, if you’re into trends, Quinn has been horrible as a favorite at 17-31 ATS (35.4%). Only Mike Shanahan has been less profitable as a favorite among 120 coaches in our BetLabs database since 2003.

Stuckey is 312-251-8 (55.4%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

Giants at Redskins Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Redskins -2
  • Over/Under: 41
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is due to return to the starting lineup in relief of Eli Manning while the Redskins are coming off of a competitive loss against the Eagles in Week 15.

Our experts anticipate the Giants feeding Saquon Barkley against Washington’s lagging run defense in this battle for the cellar of the NFC East.

Giants-Redskins Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Giants

The Giants placed Evan Engram (foot) on injured reserve earlier this week, so he’s done for the season. They could potentially get Rhett Ellison (concussion) back as he was a full participant on Wednesday, but he was downgraded to limited practice on Thursday

The Redskins placed Trey Quinn (concussion) and offensive lineman Brandon Scherff (elbow/shoulder) on injured reserve. The loss of Scherff is a significant blow as he’s one of their best pass-blocking lineman.

One key injury to monitor is cornerback Quinton Dunbar (hamstring), who grades out as one of Pro Football Focus’ best corners this season. He was ruled out last week, but returned to practice on Wednesday and then was downgraded to no practice on Thursday. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Saquon Barkley vs. Washington’s Run Defense

It finally looks like the Giants’ lead running back has started to return to form after his Week 3 high ankle sprain. Barkley produced the overall RB5 stat line with 143 total yards and two touchdowns against Miami’s poor run defense. Fortunately for Barkley, he sees another favorable matchup in Week 16 at Washington.

fantasy-football-ppr-rankings-rb-week 10-2019
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Saquon Barkley

Washington has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards and second-most receptions to opposing running backs this season. The Redskins rank 24th in run defense DVOA and just allowed 172 total yards and two touchdowns to Philadelphia rookie running back Miles Sanders last week.

With Jones returning to practice on Wednesday, the Giants offense should be back at full strength, with the receiving production of wide receivers Golden Tate and Darius Slayton likely to improve. This should hopefully open running lanes for Barkley, who ranks 13th with an average of 6.9 defenders in the box per run (PlayerProfiler).

It’s been a disappointing year for Barkley fantasy owners, but with this health finally close to 100% he should be able to take advantage of the his most favorable matchup this season. Mike Randle

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Pick ‘Em
  • Projected Total: 41

This is a pass for me. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Randle: Redskins -2

The Giants had their moment for Eli Manning last week, and now travel on the road to Washington to face a Redskins team that is playing much better than their record would indicate.

The Redskins are 2-2 in their past four games, including a home win over the Lions and an impressive road win at Carolina. They have been very competitive in their last two losses with a five-point road loss to the Packers and a home loss to the Eagles that was decided on the last play of the game. The Redskins’ defense has been much improved and will be ready at home against their division rivals.

The Giants 28th-ranked pass defense will have no answer for rookie wideout Terry McLaurin and quarterback Dwayne Haskins (two touchdowns, zero interceptions) looked much more comfortable at home against Philadelphia.

The Giants are 1-6 away from home, with their only win coming as a result of a last-second missed 34-year field goal. I’ll take a Washington team that has been much more competitive under interim head coach Bill Callahan and give the points before the line creeps over the magic number of -3.

Randle is 238-231-5 (50.7%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

Lions at Broncos Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Broncos -6.5
  • Over/Under: 38.5
  • Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

The lowest over/under of Sunday’s NFL slate belongs to the Detroit Lions and Denver Broncos. But where’s the value on the total?

Our experts preview the matchup, featuring their pick.

Lions-Broncos Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Lions

Bo Scarbrough (ribs) remains limited in practice, but there have been talks of Kerryon Johnson’s (knee) potential return. If he’s active, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him step right back into his featured role.

The Broncos continue to have a banged up offensive line with Ron Leary (concussion) and Ja’Wuan James (knee) still sitting out of practice. Noah Fant (shoulder) has been limited the last few weeks, but he’s still suited up every time. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Phillip Lindsay vs. Lions Rush Defense

The Lions run defense has served as a slot machine for opposing running backs all season. They’ve allowed an average of 22.8 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, ranking third-worst among all teams. They’ve been particularly poor against running back in the passing game, allowing the second-most receiving yards (796) on just the 20th-most receptions (73).

This sets up well for the explosive Lindsay, who ranks inside the top 15 in both breakaway runs and breakaway run rate. The Broncos top running back has seen 12 targets over the past five games.

Lindsay has seen his highest usage in positive game scripts. He averaged 19 touches per game in their last two wins over Houston and Los Angeles compared to only seven in last week’s blowout loss at Kansas City, so this game also sets up favorably for Lindsay with the Broncos 6.5-point favorites.

He hasn’t produced an overall RB1 performance since Week 5, but has the perfect mismatch to end that streak. Mike Randle

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Broncos -8
  • Projected Total: 40

The Broncos should be able to move the ball with ease against the Lions’ 24th-ranked defense in DVOA (per Football Outsiders). And while Detroit’s offense is clearly not as explosive with David Blough under center, if he’s forced to attempt 40-plus passes for the third straight game, it could help the over here.

Kerryon Johnson-Fantasy Football
Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kerryon Johnson

It’s also worth noting Johnson’s potential return again. Even if he’s only able to play in a limited role, it should give this offense a slight boost and help keep the Broncos defense honest.

Still, since this matchup involves teams already eliminated from playoff contention, I’ll typically pass in these situations. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

John Ewing: Over 37.5

Oddsmakers don’t have much faith in either team scoring in this matchup. And who can blame them? Nothing says shootout like Drew Lock vs. David Blough. And the Lions rank only 19th in offensive DVOA while the Broncos are 26th.

A majority of tickets are on the under as well.

It’s easy to understand why the public would bet the under, but this is a sneaky good spot to wager on the over. Historically, it’s been profitable to bet the over in low-total, non-division games without wind.

This strategy works because it’s easier for an over to hit if the total is low. Non-division games feature teams that are less familiar with each other’s tendencies, which promotes a higher-scoring environment. And without windy conditions, the passing and kicking games should be more efficient.

Not only does history point to value on the over, but as we highlighted earlier, Koerner’s projected total is 40. Our model also projects the teams to go over the total with an expected average point total of 39.5 points.

Raiders at Chargers Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Chargers -7
  • Over/Under: 45
  • Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

The Chargers and Raiders have had disappointing seasons, but the two teams meet up in a divisional rivalry on Sunday in Los Angeles. Philip Rivers is coming off another poor performance in a loss to the Vikings while the Raiders lost their final game in Oakland against a struggling Jaguars team.

Our experts preview this AFC West matchup, complete with a pick.

Raiders-Chargers Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Chargers

The Chargers continue to be relatively healthy. The trend of limiting Mike Williams (knee) continues this week, but he still hasn’t missed any time. The other injury to monitor is offensive lineman Russell Okung (groin).

The Raiders placed Trent Brown (pectoral) on injured reserve and they already ruled out Josh Jacobs (shoulder) for this game. That means DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard will handle the backfield duties. Richie Incognito (ankle) is also on their injury report, and he’s a name worth watching since he’s graded out as one of the best pass-blockers in the league. They could have their hands full with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Chargers Pass Offense vs. Raiders Pass Defense

The Raiders’ pass defense has struggled mightily, allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They’ve allowed opposing signal-callers to produce the sixth-most passing yards (3899) and second-most passing touchdowns (32).

And their defense has been significantly worse on the road overall.

Their defense is also a favorable matchup for the Chargers receivers. Oakland allows the eighth-most receptions and receiving yards, and the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts. Both Keenan Allen (fourth in receptions, 10th in receiving yards) and Mike Williams (three consecutive overall WR2 or better finishes) will have ample opportunities.

Look for a big game from Hunter Henry, who operates against a Raiders defense that has also allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Oakland has allowed nine touchdowns to the position, ranking only behind Arizona (15).

Despite the rumblings of Rivers possibly facing his final year for the Chargers, Week 16 sets up as an ideal matchup for a talented passing offense. Mike Randle

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Chargers -7
  • Projected Total: 46

Both teams are coming off devastating losses.

The Raiders coasted to a 16-3 lead at halftime in what was an emotional final game in Oakland, so it was a bit odd to see them take their foot off the gas and allow the Jags to come back and win 20-16. If the Raiders couldn’t pull off that win at home, I’m not sure how they are able to play a competitive game against the Chargers.

Meanwhile, the Chargers were popping so much in my model last week that I made them my Play of the Year. The market behavior clearly indicated that the sharps were on the same side, but the result could not have been any worse as the Chargers ended up turning the ball over six times to the Vikings one turnover.

It’s impossible to win a game in the NFL with a -5 turnover margin, so the 39-10 score wasn’t too surprising.

The Chargers are likely to bounce back from that debacle, so I’d lean toward them here, but I’m hoping last week was the last time I ever lose money on Rivers. He’s been terrible down the stretch this season — the Chargers will have some tough decisions to make this offseason regarding their future at QB.

Rivers and the Chargers are clearly going to rebound for a blowout win just to pour salt in my wound, so this is a hard pass for me. Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

Since 2003, the under is 838-741-29 (53.1%) in division games. Unders have been a smart play in division games as increased familiarity between teams creates a lower-scoring environment.

It may seem obvious to some bettors, but it’s been more profitable to take the under in division games with high totals (more than 44 points) — it’s just easier for unders to cash when more points are expected to be scored.

Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 190-113-3 (62.7%) since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $6,755 following this strategy.

The Chargers are averaging 21.4 points per game and the Raiders have scored 19.6 ppg – both rank in the bottom half of the league. This total has decreased from 47 to 45.5 and could go lower.  John Ewing

Expert Pick

Matthew Freedman: Under 45

Since the Chargers moved from San Diego to Los Angeles in 2017 and started playing in the miniature StubHub Center — now Dignity Health Sports Park, although it will always be the StubHub in my heart — they have been one of the league’s most under-friendly home teams.

Is there a reason for the StubHub under? My sense is that the Chargers simply lack the home-field advantage most teams have. On the road, they have averaged 23.4 points per game, but at home they have experienced just a slight uptick to 24.1.

Without the natural home-field scoring boost most teams get, the Chargers are understandably prone to the under in LA. The StubHub under is 14-7 (29.2% ROI).

I bet the under at 47, but like it down to 45.

Freedman is 520-389-21 (57.2%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

Cardinals at Seahawks Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Seahawks -9.5
  • Over/Under: 51
  • Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

The highest total of Week 16 belongs to the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks. But what’s the smart way to bet this over/under?

Our experts preview the NFC West showdown, complete with a PRO System match.

Cardinals-Seahawks Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Cardinals

The Cardinals’ main injury to monitor is Christian Kirk (ankle). He sat out Wednesday but was limited on Thursday, so he’s likely trending toward playing, especially since he was able to suit up last week after following a similar protocol.

Quandre Diggs has been awesome since joining Seattle, but he’s not expected to play on Sunday due to an ankle injury.

There are two more key defensive injuries to monitor: Jadeveon Clowney (core) and Bobby Wagner (ankle), who haven’t practiced. Their potential absences would be good news for Kyler Murray since Clowney leads the Seahawks in quarterback pressures, hits and hurries while Wagner is one of their best run defenders. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Tyler Lockett vs. Byron Murphy

Simply put: The Cardinals can’t cover anybody. Pro Football Focus gives them the lowest overall coverage grade at 39.0, which sits even lower than the completely decimated Dolphins secondary.

The Cardinals struggle to cover almost every position that Patrick Peterson — who isn’t even having a great year — doesn’t cover. They also rank among the worst teams at covering tight ends, backs and slot receivers.

Tyler Lockett-Byron Murphy
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Tyler Lockett, Byron Murphy

This could be a huge game for Lockett, who ranks in the top 10 in slot snaps (349) and percentage of targets caught at north of 77% this season (per PFF). He should absolutely abuse Murphy, who grades out as one of the worst slot corners. And given Arizona’s shaky safety play, expect Lockett to get behind the defense a few times either by design and/or when Russell Wilson buys time with his wheels.

The Cardinals are also one of the NFL’s heaviest blitz defenses, but that shouldn’t bother Wilson, who has been nothing short of remarkable under pressure with  nine touchdowns to only two interceptions and the third-highest QB rating of 93.3 while under pressure.

Top QB Ratings While Under Pressure

  • Drew Brees: 98.8
  • Lamar Jackson: 97.5
  • Russell Wilson: 93.3
  • Derek Carr: 92.3
  • Patrick Mahomes: 90.9

It should be another long day for the Cardinals secondary, and Lockett could be the biggest benefactor. Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Seahawks -10.5
  • Projected Total: 50.5

I’m close enough to the market that this is a pass for me. Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

Unders have been a smart play in division games, going 838-741-29 (53.1%) since 2003, as increased familiarity between teams creates a lower-scoring environment.

It may seem obvious to some bettors, but it’s been more profitable to take the under in division games with high totals (more than 44 points) — it’s just easier for unders to cash when more points are expected to be scored.

Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 190-113-3 (62.7%) since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $6,755 following this strategy.

With a majority of bets are on the under, don’t be surprised if this line starts to decrease. John Ewing

Expert Pick

Our staff doesn’t see value on this game right now, but that could change as lines move, so download our app to follow specific experts and action around this game.

Cowboys at Eagles Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Cowboys -1.5
  • Over/Under: 46.5
  • Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

After opening as a pick’em, the Dallas Cowboys have been bet up to 1.5-point road favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles.

But with the NFC East still up for grabs, is the real value on America’s Team?

Our experts preview this pivotal divisional matchup, featuring spread and over/under picks.

Cowboys-Eagles Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Eagles*

*Pending the status of Dak Prescott.

It appears the Eagles could be without Nelson Agholor (knee), defensive lineman Derek Barnett (ankle) and offensive lineman Lane Johnson (ankle) as none of them have practiced Wednesday or Thursday.

Meanwhile, nearly the entire Cowboys offensive line is on the injury report. Still, they’ve often limited their men in the trenches early in the week, so I wouldn’t worry about their health until Friday injury reports come out because sometimes it can be difficult to decipher.

The main story in Dallas is the health of Dak Prescott (shoulder). He’s been dealing with an AC joint sprain, but he and the Cowboys claim he’s playing even though he reportedly won’t even throw a football until Saturday. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Cowboys Pass Offense vs. Eagles Pass Defense

The Cowboys and Eagles can match each other in the trenches, where both excel.

I’d give a slight edge to a Dallas offensive line that ranks second in adjusted line yards and first in adjusted sack rate, especially if Lane Johnson can’t go for Philly. And I’d give the advantage to the Philly defensive line that ranks fourth in adjusted line yards. But this trench battle is likely a wash overall.

However, this game could be decided on the outside at receiver.

As a result of a number of a number of key injuries, the Eagles simply lack any explosiveness in the passing game with a very limited set of wideouts who would serve as backups on almost every other NFL team. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have very solid options with Amari Cooper, Randall Cobb and Michael Gallup.

Plus, while neither team has an elite secondary, the Cowboys have the better overall defensive backfield, so this edge becomes even more amplified for them.

Amari Cooper, Jalen Mills
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Amari Cooper, Jalen Mills

Of the 120 corners who have played at least 120 snaps this season, here are where the Eagles’ projected starters at corner rank in coverage (per Pro Football Focus):

  • Ronald Darby: 116th
  • Avonte Maddox: 92nd
  • Jalen Mills: 79th

Their safety play hasn’t been great, either, which is one reason they allow so many explosive plays through the air — 14 of 40 or more yards so far this season. (Only the Raiders have allowed more.)

By contrast, the Cowboys have allowed only four (only the Chargers have allowed fewer). And per those same coverage grades, Byron Jones, Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis rank 26th, 41st and 54th, respectively.

One potential weakness of the Cowboys defense that the Eagles could exploit is with their two plus tight ends: The Cowboys rank 29th in pass coverage against the position, per Football Outsiders. But given the limited options Philly has at wide receiver, Dallas can simply focus its attention and resources on stopping Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.

One would expect this divisional showdown that could decide the NFC East to be close, but it might just boil down to the Cowboys having the superior playmakers on the outside who can make a big play on a few key third downs or in the red zone. Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Cowboys -1.5
  • Projected Total: 48

This matchup is eerily similar to Rams-Cowboys one from just a week ago. The Rams were slight road favorites with lopsided action on their side. After the Cowboys blew out the Rams, it’s now their turn to be slight road favorites receiving about 80% of the action (see live public betting data here).

It’s common knowledge at this point that the Eagles are hurting at wide receiver ever since Alshon Jeffery went down in Week 14. However, Greg Ward stepped up big for the Eagles last week and they also might get Agholor back from injury. And let’s not forget they have the best TE duo in all of football with Ertz and Goedert.

The Eagles should be capable of moving the ball against Dallas this week.

The wildcard will be the health of Prescott. Heading into last week he was dealing with injuries to both hands, one of which required bandage at the tip of his index finger on his throwing hand. The injury didn’t appear to limit him in anyway on Sunday, however he ended up suffering a new injury to his right shoulder. It’s being described as an AC joint injury, which is likely going to limit him in practice all week.

Given the Eagles’ stout run defense is likely to limit Ezekiel Elliott (as much as a defense can), it could prevent the Cowboys from leaning on their running game if Dak’s shoulder is in fact an issue. I’m already showing value on Philly  before even factoring in Dak’s status, so it’s likely smart to lock in Eagles +1.5 now. Sean Koerner

Koerner is 158-119-2 (57%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

PRO System Match

Unders have been a smart play in division games, going 838-741-29 (53.1%) since 2003, as increased familiarity between teams creates a lower-scoring environment.

It may seem obvious to some bettors, but it’s been more profitable to take the under in division games with high totals (more than 44 points) — it’s just easier for unders to cash when more points are expected to be scored.

Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 190-113-3 (62.7%) since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $6,755 following this strategy.

A majority of bets are on this over, but the line has moved from 47.5 to 46.5. When the line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages, it’s called reverse line movement and is an indication of sharp action.

History and pros are on this under. John Ewing

Expert Pick

Matthew Freedman: Under 46.5

If the Cowboys win, they’ll be the NFC East champions. If the Eagles win, they’ll take the division as long as they dispense with the 3-11 Giants in Week 17.

Given what’s at stake, I expect both teams to slow the game down, look to keep the score close and play with more intention.

And that makes sense: Whenever divisional opponents face off in the final month of the season, we typically see lower-scoring games. The teams are familiar with each other, the weather is colder and they tend to be a little more conservative on offense.

In the Bet Labs database, the December divisional under is an A-graded 288-217-12 (10.9% ROI).

Plus, Prescott has trended toward the under whenever the Cowboys have traveled. Outside of the domed AT&T Stadium, the Dak under is 19-12 (17.8% ROI).

I bet the under at 47.5 but like it down to 45.

Freedman is 522-393-22 (57%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

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