NFL Week 16 Picks: Early Bets for Jaguars vs Jets, Packers vs Dolphins
Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Wilson.
NFL Odds & Picks
Dylan Wilkerson: If you have any faith in the Jets, now is the time to buy low.
They are coming off three straight single-digit losses to the Vikings, Bills and Lions. Their current quarterback situation has probably left a bad taste in bettors mouths, and rightfully so. However, Zach Wilson did not look bad against Detroit, tallying 317 pass yards and converting on third downs 50% of the time.
The inverse applies to the Jaguars, who are coming off huge wins against Dallas and Tennessee. The Jaguars were 2.5-point underdogs on the lookahead, so it seems the movement may be due to an overreaction from yesterday’s games.
Jacksonville’s defense is currently allowing scores on nearly 40% of drives, this could be what the Jets offense needs to get things going.
New York’s defense has still been efficient, keeping one of the highest scoring offenses in Detroit to 20 points. I trust the Jets to pull this one out at home, and I would bet it now before the markets have time to adjust!
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Brandon Anderson: It seems everyone has forgotten about and moved on from the Packers for the season, but the truth is this team is much more average than bad. They’ve been so wildly disappointing from preseason expectations that we’ve collectively left this team for dead.
But the Packers are still alive in the playoff hunt — more so after Seattle’s loss on Thursday — and I think they could remind us of that with a big, comfortable Lambeau win on Monday night in front of a national audience.
Green Bay is really bad at two things in particular.
The Packers are horrendous on special teams and against the run. Against some opponents, that’s a killer combo. But against Miami, it’s not really a problem. The Dolphins have the worst special teams unit in the NFL thus far; they also can’t and barely even try to run the ball.
What Green Bay can do is defend the pass. The Packers rank sixth defensively against the pass over the past six weeks, and Miami’s once-lethal passing attack has fallen to pieces over the last couple games. San Francisco laid the blueprint, jamming those speed receivers at the line and taking away the middle of the field.
Tua Tagovailoa looks like he’s seeing ghosts; he is not finding his receivers and his sense of timing is completely off. The Dolphins dropped their third straight game on Saturday so belief in this team could be fading.
Even when the Dolphins win, they’re not always winning big. Four of their eight wins this season don’t cover this line anyway.
The truth is this has almost always been too many points to give Aaron Rodgers. As an underdog of over three points, Rodgers is 14-9 ATS (61%), and he’s covered eight of nine such games since 2019, winning seven of them outright. Matt LaFleur is also 12-4 ATS (75%) as an underdog, including 9-1 ATS as over a field goal dog.
I’m grabbing the points, and I also want a piece of the +176 moneyline.