Bills vs Packers Odds & Picks: 5 Best Bets for Sunday Night Football
Pictured: Aaron Rodgers (left) and Josh Allen.
- The Packers are 10.5-point underdogs on Sunday Night Football against the Bills
- Our staff of betting analysts is on these five bets to close the day's action.
- Get our favorite Packers vs Bills picks below.
Bills vs Packers Odds
Bills vs Packers Picks
Simon Hunter: I'm a sucker for Josh Allen as a big favorite. He's 5-1 against the spread (ATS) as a double-digit favorite, including a 38-3 win over the Steelers earlier this season as 14-point favorites.
The Bills have the best offense in the NFL, and they also have the best defense in the NFL. There's a reason why they're the favorites to win the Super Bowl.
For some reason, though, people keep betting Green Bay. Maybe it's just the love and respect bettors have for Aaron Rodgers, a historically profitable quarterback.
I don't see it, though. This isn't the MVP Rodgers from the last two seasons. Something is broken. This team can't pick up a third down on offense and has looked lost without Davante Adams to make key plays. This week, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb are out and Christian Watson is questionable, although Sammy Watkins is set to return from his latest injury.
Buffalo on primetime coming off its bye week is the wrong team to get right against. I do not see how Green Bay keeps up with the Bills.
If you're worried about the Bills starting slow, I'm a big fan of Brandon Anderson's best bet of their second-half spread, which you can read about below, or by clicking here.
Chris Raybon: As much as Aaron Rodgers wants to make himself believe a matchup with the Bills will be good for the Packers, it will not, in fact, be good for them. Rodgers is missing his top two receivers, Allen Lazard (out-shoulder) and Randall Cobb (IR-ankle) against a Bills squad coming off a bye that ranks first in overall defensive DVOA and fourth against the pass.
Here are Rodgers’ numbers throwing to Lazard and Cobb versus everyone else:
- Lazard and Cobb: 9.04 YPA, 13.6 Y/C, 6.1% TD rate
- Everyone else: 5.95 YPA, 8.4 Y/C, 4.2% TD rate
If the Packers try to remedy this by running more, well, the Bills rate as the league’s best defense against the run by DVOA.
On the other side of the ball, the Packers are 11th in pass-defense DVOA but 31st against the run, which could goad Buffalo into a few more called runs, especially if they have a lead in the second half.
The under is 5-1 in Bills games this season, and a Packers offense ranked 30th in situation neutral pace (32.75 seconds per play, per Football Outsiders) represents the second-slowest Buffalo has faced all year, in front of only their matchup with the Rams (33.27; 32nd) – a game that went under by 11 points.
Then there’s the matter of this game being assigned to Ron Torbort, who tends not to be offense-friendly. The under in games with Torbort as the head referee has gone 28-8-1 (78%) since the start of the 2020 season, covering by an average of 6.5 points per game.
This season, the under is 6-0 in games Torbort has refereed, covering by an average of 16.8 points per game.
I'd bet this under down to 46.
Aaron Rodgers has never been this big of an underdog, but he's 3-0 ATS as an underdog of more than six, winning twice and losing by two on a late field goal. That made me want to back the Packers here, especially with an inflated line — but I can't get there.
The Bills are better, at basically everything.
Buffalo has the superior QB, by a lot right now. The Bills have the better weapons, coaching staff, special teams and a defense that shows up. The one thing Green Bay does well is run the ball, but even that won't help much against the league's top run D.
Green Bay's defense does rank first in drive success rate and is good at limiting explosive pass plays, and it's been tougher in the first half. Buffalo has started slow at times, so maybe the Packers hang around — for a bit.
The Bills are tremendous front runners, though. Josh Allen has only failed to cover once in his last 10 games as a double-digit favorite, and the Bills step on the gas in the second half.
Allen is 10-1 ATS (91%) on the 2H line, and Buffalo's defense has allowed only 4.0 points per second half in those games. Both of those failed covers came in that weird 9-6 loss to the Jaguars last season. Otherwise, the Bills are pretty much untouchable as huge favorites.
Sam Farley: If there's one word to sum up NFL training camp, it's "buzz.”
It's a time of year when legends get made before a meaningful snap is played and some careers are already slated to fail.
Last year, we were told Ja'Marr Chase couldn't catch, and this year we were told about the Packers’ secret weapon, Romeo Doubs, a supposed red-zone machine.
As the season started we saw Doubs get targets from Aaron Rodgers, and he hauled in touchdowns in Weeks 3 and 4. Since those highs he's seemingly declined, from 29 yards in Week 5, 21 in Week 6 and then no catches on four targets in Week 7.
This week, his receiving line sits at 41.5. You have to hit the Under when you hear that he has a poor 5.6 yards per target this season and now faces one of the NFL's premier defenses.
Ricky Henne: While the passing game powers Buffalo’s offense, Devin Singletary should run wild against a Green Bay defense with the second-worst rushing DVOA in the league.
Singletary has the sixth-best success rate among all running backs per Football Outsiders, which measures a player’s successful running plays divided by his opportunities. The latter has been a problem for Singletary, though, as Buffalo is one of the most pass-happy teams in the league, suppressing his overall numbers. In fact, the Bills have thrown the ball exactly 100 times more than they’ve run it (246-146).
But that might be changing, which makes an over on 54.5 yards on the ground so appealing.
Buffalo fed Singletary a season-high 17 times in its last game before the bye, and now he faces a Green Bay defense allergic to stopping the run. The Packers have allowed running backs to surpass 55 yards in six of their seven games. Multiple running backs have reached that number in the same game twice, including Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson for Washington last week.
As if that wasn’t enough, Green Bay owns the NFL’s best pass defense, giving up only 168.9 yards per game through the air. Sean McDermott is smart enough to take advantage of that discrepancy, so Singletary should have enough opportunities to crush the over. I’m putting multiple units on him to do just that.