NBA Best Bets Today | 9 Expert Picks for Tuesday, Feb. 27

Tuesday's NBA slate features 11 games, and we have a lot of action to go along with it.

Our NBA writers came through with nine best bets for Tuesday's games in the Association, including two spread picks, two over/under bets and five player props.

So, no matter what you're looking for, we have you covered.

Check out all nine of our NBA best bets and expert picks for Tuesday's games below.

Ready to get in on the NBA betting action in North Carolina? You’ll soon be able to join in on NC sports betting, as the state will go live with legal betting on March 11.

NBA Best Bets Today

By Bryan Fonseca

I think this is the spot where Donovan Mitchell returns to being himself.

In his first game back from illness, he had a high-turnover, low-volume scoring game, ending with just 16 points on 10 shots against the Wizards. I think today is the day he goes back to his pre-All-Star self.

Before the break — and the illness — Mitchell recorded 30 or more points + rebounds in 10-of-12, scoring 30 or more points in six.

Tonight, against Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, he will need to be the aggressor again for the Cavs to win — and possibly cover. I'd entertain sprinkling on him to score 30 or more points if you get enough juice or a boosted play.

Pick: Donovan Mitchell Over 29.5 PR

By Joe Dellera

This line is a bit low for Mobley, who has been a force for the Cavaliers. While he has been ramping up his minutes after returning from injury, he has had a fairly consistent floor of 25 minutes per game with a few games of 30-plus.

Mobley gets a matchup against the Mavericks tonight, and he has yet to face off against their new frontcourt.

The Mavericks have the league's third-worst rebounding percentage and play at the ninth-fastest pace. Mobley should have plenty of chances to rack up boards and score tonight.

Mobley’s PR line is set at 22.5 for tonight's game. When he has played 25-plus minutes, he has exceeded this line in 77% of games this season while averaging 26 PR.

I like Mobley to continue his strong play and go over his 22.5 PR line.

Pick: Evan Mobley Over 22.5 PR

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By Bryan Fonseca

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, I'm stupid.

I just played Green over 13.5 points and rebounds against the Nuggets on Sunday — and guess who didn't hit? Green had 12, and then it came down to a layup he missed with 7:10 to go, and he went up weak, ultimately proving to be the deciding factor after this looked like a sure thing before a nothing third quarter.

So, why am I back?

Not because I'm a masochist — that's not for you to decide — but because Green has still gone over 15.5 PR in six of his last eight, and now he's facing Marvin Bagley and Kyle Kuzma, not Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon, who own him.

I've had success with this bet more often than not, but if you go under consecutively, I move on for a while. So, if this goes under, I'm off Draymond until further notice.

Don't let me down, Draymond. But if you do, at least fight someone on the way out so it could be worth it. I'd rather you go under because of a fight, not because of a missed layup.

Pick: Draymond Green Over 15.5 PR

By Joe Dellera

We're getting a slight buy-low opportunity here due to a matchup against an elite Boston defense with Hield scoring just 11 against the Bucks and seeing a bit of a downward trend over the last three games.

This matchup against the Celtics is surprisingly strong though. Boston allows 3-point attempts at the fourth-highest frequency in the league, but they're even more susceptible on non-corner 3s, which they allow at the second-highest rate, per Cleaning the Glass.

This shot profile allowed aligns with Hield’s shot profile. Held takes about two-thirds of his shots from deep, but they're nearly all above-the-break 3s. This is a tough matchup overall for the Sixers; however, having Hield as an outlet on the perimeter will be extremely beneficial for them.

I expect Hield to exceed 12.5 points, a number he has exceeded in six of his seven games as a member of the 76ers.

Pick: Buddy Hield Over 12.5 Points

By Joe Dellera

This was bumped up a touch after Murray's near triple-double last game, but it’s still too low without Trae Young on the floor.

Murray is the natural beneficiary of Trae's team-leading 34.7% usage rate. Murray is used to handling significant usage from his time with the Spurs when he logged a 31.5% usage rate in his final season there — about 6% more than his current usage this season, per Cleaning the Glass.

Murray is averaging 26.2 points, 9.0 assists and 6.3 rebounds per game in six games without Young this season. His RA line is set at 14.5 today (-130 at ESPN), and this is a line he has exceeded in three of his six games without Trae.

This increase to 14.5 RA is not significant enough, though, because of the matchup. This is a game that should be played with a ton of pace with Atlanta playing at the fourth-fastest speed and Utah the seventh-fastest, per Dunks & Threes.

I like Dejounte to exceed 14.5 RA, and I can’t blame you if you sprinkle some triple-double as well.

Pick: Dejounte Murray Over 14.5 RA

By Chris Baker

The Hornets defense has looked elite over its last six games, but that's more likely a product of playing bad offenses and outlier poor shooting.

This is a horrible matchup for Charlotte's defense, which doesn't have quality bigs to consistently defend Giannis Antetokounmpo and prevent him from attacking the rim. Expect the Bucks to score at will here.

The Hornets offense has too many shooters to remain this inefficient, and I like its shot profile. This team ranks ninth in 3-point attempt rate since the PJ Washington and Gordon Hayward trades.

Between Vasilije Micic, Tre Mann, Seth Curry, Davis Bertans and Brandon Miller, I think they have enough spacing to cause issues for this larger Bucks defense.

Pick: Over 224

By Michael Fiddle

In sports handicapping, there's approach known as "top-down" handicapping. It simply refers to understanding where the rest of the market has its numbers and picking off the outlier.

In this case, BetRivers has the total for the Pistons-Bulls game at 227.5, while the rest of the market has dropped to 225.5. For that reason, grabbing the under 227.5 becomes a smart value grab, almost regardless of how you feel about the game itself.

The Pistons have gone youth-heavy and lack shooting after trading Bojan Bogdonovic, Alec Burks and Kevin Knox. Plus, Isaiah Stewart is still suspended. If you see anything above 225.5, play the under.

Pick: Under 227.5

By Chris Baker

The Rockets just lost to the Thunder by 13 in Houston on Sunday, but I think the score may have been a little misleading.

Houston dominated on the offensive glass, rebounding 30.4% of its misses. It lost because it turned the ball over on 17.5% of possessions and owned an effective field-goal percentage of just 50% from the field.

If it gets some positive regression in those departments, we should see a much tighter game here.

The Thunder offense should regress if the Rockets can limit their turnovers and hit a few more shots, which will enable them to sit their defense a bit more. The Thunder's 48% 3-point mark from Sunday is likely unsustainable, and if we see them come back down to earth, I think the Rockets have a decent chance to pull an upset.

I like the Rockets at +10.5 and will also sprinkle the moneyline at +410 in this spot.

Pick: Rockets +10.5 and ML +410

By Michael Fiddle

The Miami Heat surging into the second half of the season is as bankable as a Tim Duncan elbow jumper. And of course, it's happening again.

The Heat have now won eight of their last 10 contests, upsetting the Kings in Sacramento without Jimmy Butler or Terry Rozier. They will have Jimmy Buckets back for this one, and I expect Miami to keep the hot play going.

We also get a full point here, as the entire market is at -7 or beyond, but Rivers is still at -6. Because of the value, this is a slam-dunk opportunity.

Pick: Heat -6

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