The IU Indy Jaguars take on the Cleveland State Vikings in Cleveland, Ohio, in the Horizon League Tournament Play-In Game. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Cleveland State is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -125. The total is set at 170.5 points.
Here’s my IU Indy vs. Cleveland State predictions and college basketball picks for March 2, 2026.
IU Indy vs Cleveland State Prediction
My Pick: Cleveland State Team Total Under
My IU Indy vs Cleveland State best bet is on the Vikings to go under their team total. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
IU Indy vs. Cleveland State Odds
| IU Indy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 170.5 -105o / -115u | +105 |
| Cleveland St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 170.5 -105o / -115u | -125 |
- IU Indy vs Cleveland State spread: Cleveland State -1.5
- IU Indy vs Cleveland State over/under: 170.5 points
- IU Indy vs Cleveland State moneyline: IU Indy +105, Cleveland State -125
IU Indy vs Cleveland State College Basketball Betting Preview
IU Indy Basketball
IU Indy immediately grabbed headlines this season with its style of play, including an eye-popping 118-102 loss against Ohio State to open the season. A new brand of basketball was immediately injected by head coach Ben Howlett.
The high-risk, high-reward press/trap system routinely saw the Jaguars surrendering high point totals, and when shots were falling on the offensive end, this team was electric.
However, when the Jaguars hit a mid-season shooting slump against the better teams in the Horizon League, the results were blowout losses and a dejected squad.
IU Indy has played competitive basketball down the stretch, but it can't consistently find wins, meaning an early exit in the Horizon League Tournament is likely. Either way, this season has been one in which the Jaguars have seen growth and excitement for the first time in 15 years.
Three Jaguars average double-figure scoring, led by Kyler D’Augustino, who averages 18.3 points per game. Maguire Mitchell and Jaxon Edwards each average 11 points, while Finley Woodward has an incredible 191 assists out of the post for the Jaguars.
The offense has been less effective without JP Dragas, who's been out with injury, and Matt Compas, who has seen his role diminish as the season has progressed.
The defensive metrics have suffered for IU Indy, the result of its style of play.
The Jaguars press and trap repeatedly while taking gambles on steals, which can lead to run outs on the offensive end, or easy looks the other way if those gambles don't result in turnovers.
Perimeter defense has been an issue, as has sending opponents to the foul line. IU Indy ranks worst in the Horizon League in both metrics.
We've seen the defense be a bit less intense in league play, and I would expect that to continue into the postseason.
Cleveland State Basketball
Cleveland State has substantially ramped up its offensive operating tempo this season under first-year head coach Rob Summers. The Vikings were one of the slowest-tempo teams in America last season.
While the philosophy changed, blowout losses continue to ensue.
The Vikings had just one win over a Division I team in the non-conference and are coming into this one having lost seven games in a row in Horizon League play, most by double digits.
The offense has been led by Dayan Nessah, who averages 15.5 points per game, but he's missed the last four games with injury, and his status for this game is uncertain.
Cleveland State has also relied on Tre Beard, who averages 13 points, while Chevalier Emery and Jaidon Lipscomb each average 12 points per contest. Nessah gets to the line a ton, and the offense operates more fluidly with him in the lineup.
Defensively, it's been a struggle for Cleveland State all season, as the Vikings are the worst-rated stop-unit in the Horizon League and third-worst in the entire country.
The Vikings have been largely ineffective defending from anywhere on the floor and rank 359th nationally in effective field goal percentage.
They don't force turnovers at a high rate and aren't equipped with a strong rim-protecting post player to block or alter shots.
Cleveland State has only allowed less than 78 points in Horizon League play one time this season.
IU Indy vs. Cleveland State Betting Analysis
This line opened with Cleveland State slated as a two-point favorite with a total set at 172.5. I'm going to take Cleveland State’s team total under 88 in this one.
The Vikings' offense has struggled badly over the last month of the season during their seven-game losing streak, as other players have had to step up due to Nessah being out of the fold.
Cleveland State has only scored 70 and 64 points in its last two games and has had to rely on shooting a ton of 3-point shots. They haven’t been converting those opportunities at a high rate.
If Nessah is confirmed out again, I struggle to see where the offense will come from. Cleveland State scored just 74 points in the last meeting with IU Indy, and with this being a postseason game, I can actually see both teams taking possessions a little more methodically in the second half.
IU Indy has struggled on the offensive end, as well, with the Jaguars eclipsing 80 points once in their last four games.
There's such a high expectation that this game is going to be high scoring, but with poor shooting numbers, this game could be played in the high 70s or low 80s, even with factoring in late-game fouling.
Because I think IU Indy can compete, I will take Cleveland State’s team total under.
My Pick: Cleveland State Team Total Under
