Democrats picked up ground in 2 of the Senate’s most closely watched contests this week. Kalshi’s Democratic Senate contract traded at 65¢ Tuesday morning, and Polymarket’s matching contract sat at 65¢ as well: both platforms pricing Democrats as the clear favorite to hold the Senate majority heading into Nov. 3. A new Marist poll has Sherrod Brown up 4 points on Jon Husted in Ohio, while Elon University’s final pre-election survey puts Roy Cooper 13 points ahead of Michael Whatley in North Carolina.
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Senate Control Odds Today: Kalshi vs. Polymarket
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority heading into Nov. 3, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats to flip the chamber. Here’s where things stood as of Tuesday morning:
| Market | Kalshi | Polymarket | Updated |
| Which Party Wins the Senate | Democrats 65%, Republicans 35% | Democrats 65%, Republicans 36% | Oct. 21 |
| Ohio Senate Winner | Brown (D) 65%, Husted (R) 35% | Brown (D) 64%, Husted (R) 36% | Oct. 21 |
| North Carolina Senate Winner | Cooper (D) 96.1%, Whatley (R) 3.9% | Cooper (D) 96.5%, Whatley (R) 3.5% | Oct. 21 |
A contract’s price in cents works as a running probability estimate on both platforms: a contract trading at 65¢ means traders collectively see roughly a 65% chance of that outcome. That’s a close read between the two exchanges on the national number. Both markets are running a bit hotter on Democrats than Decision Desk HQ’s statistical forecast, which puts the party at 55% to hold the chamber as of Tuesday.
Ohio Senate Poll: Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted
A Marist poll conducted Oct. 15-18 has Brown edging Husted by 4 points among likely voters, 48% to 44%. Brown’s lead widens to nine points among registered voters, in line with where Marist had the race in September.
Decision Desk HQ’s own polling average has told a similar story in recent days, with Brown ahead by a little under 3 points. The markets see it as closer to a 2-to-1 race: Brown’s contract traded at 65¢ on Kalshi and 64¢ on Polymarket Tuesday morning, which would be a flip of the seat from Republican to Democratic control. Kalshi’s own modeling projects a 2.3-point Brown margin on Election Day. If you want to know more, visit Prediction Pro and read our midterms predictions.
North Carolina Senate Poll: Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley
Elon University’s final poll before Election Day, fielded Sept. 29-Oct. 8, gives Cooper a 13-point edge over Whatley, 52% to 39%, with 6% still undecided. That’s a wider gap than the roughly 8-point lead recent polling averages have shown for Cooper over the past several weeks, making this particular survey run hot relative to the broader trend.
Cooper’s contract traded at 96.1¢ on Kalshi and 96.5¢ on Polymarket Tuesday morning. Kalshi’s own modeling translates that into a projected 10.9-point Cooper margin on Election Day, for a seat Democrats would be flipping from retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.
How Democrats Can Win the Senate Majority in 2026
Ohio and North Carolina alone wouldn’t be enough: Democrats need two more flips from the broader map to reach a workable majority. Texas and Maine remain the next-most-watched pickup opportunities, and both carry markets on Kalshi and Polymarket worth tracking as Election Day approaches. Polymarket’s broader “Balance of Power” market, which prices full control of both chambers, currently treats a Democratic sweep of the House and Senate together as the single most likely outcome of the 4 combinations traders can choose between.
What Could Move Senate Odds Before Election Day
Early voting is already underway in both Ohio and North Carolina, which tends to firm up turnout models and narrow the room for late swings. Watch for outside-group ad spending in the campaign’s final stretch, any fresh economic data that shapes how voters feel heading into the booth, and late-breaking state polls in the days before Nov. 3, all of which can move prices on both platforms quickly even when the underlying race hasn’t changed much.
Senate Control FAQ
- Who is favored to win the Senate in 2026?
Both Kalshi and Polymarket price Democrats around 65% to win Senate control, while Decision Desk HQ’s statistical forecast puts the figure closer to 55%. - What does a prediction market price mean?
A contract’s price in cents reflects the market’s running estimate of probability, traders buying and selling shares based on what they think will happen. - How many seats do Democrats need to win the Senate?
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the chamber.
